Friday 28th October - Daily Thread

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rainbowview

rainbowview

Well-Known Member
Jun 18, 2011
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Evening all

3.35 Newmarket – SWEET LAVENDER 11/1 E.W (BOG)

A wide open handicap here and it is almost impossible to rule any of these out with confidence. After looking through the entries I am hopeful of a big run from Sweet Lavender who makes her turf and handicap debut tomorrow. She is well bred sort and although her form is nothing special at all I am interested in her at around the 11/1 mark off a handicap mark of only 75. She has only had three starts and should be open to plenty of improvement, the first time visor is on tomorrow and I feel she offers some good value.

4.45 Newmarket – ZABEEL PARK 3/1 (BOG)

A decent conditions race here but I am confident that Zabeel Park has the ability to land the contest. She looked a decent prospect as a 2yo improving with each run and ending her campaign with a 2nd behind the above average Helleborine in a listed heat at Deauville in July. If she is ready to go following the absence she should be very hard to beat here. She comes in to this race as the highest rated in the field and I believe she offers some good value at 3/1.


2.45 Wetherby – RAYA STAR 5/1 (BOG)

I am very confident that Raya Star has the ability to win a race like this off a mark of 120, he had a mixed campaign over hurdles last season falling twice (would have won one and fell at the 4th other time). He picked up a nice win at Doncaster before flopping at Hereford on ground described as good (was more like heavy) and jockeys slammed the description afterwards. He rounded off his campaign with a very good 2nd at Aintree in similar company to what he faces tomorrow. The fact he pulled hard early on and just failed to get home over 2m4f suggests it was a decent performance. He drops back to 2m tomorrow which I feel is certain to suit and I will be disappointed if he can’t land this contest.


3.20 Wetherby – FISTRAL BEACH 9/2 (BOG)

A very good handicap chase here but I am fairly confident that Fistral Beach is good enough to win. Ruby Walsh comes here for just the one ride and the fact that Fistral Beach has a good first time out record is a big factor in making him my selection. His jumping hasn’t always been the best but he has a big chance in this company.


Also very confident of a big run from THE FONZ in the opener at Wetherby - shaped well on recent hurdling debut in a race that is working out well. Should be suited by the step up in distance and may well be a decent price as well. Used to back this one when with Stoute on the flat
 
Something for everyone today.

Wetherby 3.20.
Like RV I think Fistral Beach has some races in him but he hasn't shown consistency for me and I think a few of these may have his measure, 11st 5lb is plenty of weight for what he's achieved and I'd be slightly concerned at Rubys state of mind at the moment - I've heard a couple of interviews and he's notably depressed about the whole whip saga, it could be that his mind may be a little overfocussed on counting to 8 !
I think Shoreacres is the one to be with here, hugely disappointing in the Grand Annual after being backed into second fav for that, he then fell at the first at the Punchestown festival in the race won by Wishful Thinking.
Twice a winner first time out would suggest he can be ready and whilst this is a competitive heat if he can navigate his way over the steep Wetherby fences I think he can win this.

Wetherby 3.55
A fascinating juvenile hurdle this race and whilst I wouldn't recommend the mortgage on any 3yo over timber I do think the experience of Countrywide Flame can prevail here.
Hacked up in a weak hurdle race at Cartmel in the Summer, he returned to the level a coupel of weeks back to win a staying handicap comfortably off a rating of 72, higher than the favourite Secret Edge who needed her fillies allowance and a further 5lb claim to get the better of her field last time out - clearly more improvement in her as there is in many of these but even with the penalty Countrywide Flame is outstanding each way value.
Gordon Elliott, Ginger McCain and Tim Walford all have interesting runners here but none I think have the ability of Countrywide Flame.

Good luck all
 
As no one is playing my guess the horses game

Excellette - Leading player on the formbook and conditions today should suit. I expect a win.

Bop It - Better than the formbook might suggest and todays conditions heat could be perfect for the horse.

Oh and both are trained by Mr Smart.
 
Nass: I think people prefer your 'guess what happened on the bus today' game mate :cheesy:

Just the one for me today at the moment:

Secret Desert at 25s is a nice EW chance for Ferdy in 310 Uttox. Not beaten far LTO (although was 177 days) and today Tony Kelly takes 7lb off.

Mr Murphy liked this one a lot at the Open Day and said the horse will win very soon!
 
Ariyfa (IRE)
Alot to like about her belated debut in a mile fillies maiden at Naas when slowly away from a wide draw and only had a few of her 15 rivals behind entering the straight. However the penny started to drop from over a furlong out and she came home well to beat all bar the experienced Betrothed. Sure to benefit from this experience.(irishracing,com)

2s at the moment

Cunning Clarets wins for real today

Stay Frosty
 
Bus journey was poor today Gaz, really tedius so I listened to The Stone Roses. Which was nice.
 
Afternoon all, no tips today but I thought it worth mentioning that an eye should be kept on the runners in tomorrow's Montrose Fillies Listed race at Newmarket.

It often offers pointers to good 3yo fillies - Blue Bunting, Midday & Ouija Board, to name a few, have all run well in the Listed race before going on to win at the top level the following year.
 
I know he may win but surely Fistral Beach should be about double the price that he is? I would say that he is more like a 9/1 shot today, yet he is trading at 7/2!!

I have backed the John Quinn horse Countrywide Flame in the listed juvenile heat, I just hope its not a Maio Chinn Tire moment again.
 
I would agree with that Nass at 9-2 he was just about a bet yesterday <ok> should be bigger. All about getting a 20s + winner tomorrow easy as you like
 
What would you do if there was a man on a ledge threratening to jump ?

I have thought it through, the favourite has had enough chances to get his head in front and at tracks with far less competative maidens than Newmarket, his price is very poor and i feel providing great value for two alternatives. One of these is unraced and so could be anything. In favour there has been a little money for it but against the Stoute 2YR olds will often come on for the run. This leaves the only other horse attracting support, it has run once already so should be wiser, it ran well but a little green but most importantly it's price suggested much more was expected. It may be that that expectation will be realised now it has had a run, it's price is 10-3 which could be huge so i am tempted to place a decent bet. The problem is i am of course talking about the 1.50 Newmarket and the horse is Qannaas BUT the horse is ridden by Dickie. What to do? i feel like a man on a ledge about to do something stupid that he will hate himself for but strangely feel compelled to take the value.
 
Not a regular poster but I do look at the threads all the time.

Countrywide Flame for me today in the 3.55 at Wetherby. Been following this horse all summer, mainly cause a mate of mine was offered a hind leg or something in the syndicate that now own him, but turned it down. £3K for the first year now seems like peanuts to me. Still has a contact there though which is always helpful.

Anyway, word from John Quinn is that he is very confident about the performance of Countrywide Flame today and that he is not concerened about the ground (normally preferes a bit of cut in the ground) or opposition today. Hope he is right!!!

Plan after this is to run him at Chepstow in December and then give him a break until the Festival where the Triumph is the target. Best priced at 40's for that at the mo, which could be worth taking, especially if he does well today.
 
No he runs at Ascot off 132 really fancy him to run a big race off that mark. Time For Rupert will not win tomorrow imo, think he is a class act but Nacarat will be 100% for it and Diamond Harry goes really well fresh
 
I think they will have TFR spot on tomorrow after what happened at the festival. If he wins tomorrow I can see him testing the big guns over 3 miles+
 
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