Daily Racing Thread Friday 23rd. October 2020

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Oct 22, 2020.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    Friday's Meetings

    Newbury
    Flat 9 Races 12:40-5:06p.m.
    Doncaster
    Flat 8 Races 1:00-5:03p.m.
    Cheltenham
    N/H 7 Races 1:50-5:15p.m.
    Sligo
    N/H 7 Races 2:00-5:23p.m.
    Newcastle(E)
    A/W 9 Races 4:30-8:30p.m.
    Dundalk(E)
    A/W 8 Races 4:40-8:15p.m.

    Racecards
    At The Races
    Racing Post
    Sporting Life

    Good Luck <ok>
     
    #1
  2. Joe_z

    Joe_z Active Member

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    Going to take the good Doctors 2 at Cheltenham Captain Tom Cat and Katpoli along with Galvin.
    So im going for 3 in a row, insanity yip but he ho away we go its me that is the donkey.
     
    #2
  3. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Cheltenham

    15:00 Imperial Elysian 14/1 e/w (1/5 six places WH) (1/4 four places Coral)
     
    #3
  4. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Jumping the gun a bit here but in Saturday's Cheltenham bumper I think I might have spotted one. Lieutenant Henderson's Authorised gelding I am Maximus is currently priced up at 10/1. I don't rate any of the previous winners form that highly.
     
    #4
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  5. dylanthomas

    dylanthomas Active Member

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    Cheltenham 1.50 Midnight River 9/2

    Think hes a class above the field. Never forget the first word i used there. Good luck tomorrow lads :emoticon-0148-yes:
     
    #5
  6. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Negative: only two debutants have won this race in the last twenty years.
    Positive: both were trained by Hendo
     
    #6
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  7. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Morning

    2.25 Cheltenham-Mossy Fen @ 7-2 [Bet Victor]

    Should do well as a chaser
     
    #7
  8. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    Great to see Cheltenham is back...wont get to see any of the action sadly as working.

    The 1.50pm race is quite a fascinating contest. Ask for glory (son of Fame and Glory) looks a horse going places and no surprise to read he s had a wind op being from the Nicholls yard. Whilst I expect him to win, there is some decent opposition in here and I wouldn't totally discount the bottom horse Domaine De L'isle who may give the Nicholls horse most to think about. Star horse in the Sean Curran yard, gets weight from rivals, reverts to hurdling and I think will outrun it's odds..
     
    #8
  9. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Couple of snippets from me.

    Looking at all novice hurdles (non handicaps) at Cheltenham since 2015, you would be in a profit if you backed all the runners who didn't have any headgear/wind surgery/tongue ties in that time period with a ROI of 10%.

    Interestingly WS1 is 0 from 6 in these races, and that includes with tongue tie on as well, which would mean me being against the Paul Nicholls favourite and also the Fergal O'Brien runner in the 1.50. Surprisingly the trainer stats are against Paul Nicholls too with only 1 from 25 winning for him in the time period and that was El Bandit at 6/5!!

    Interestingly it is 2 from 12 for horses who have had more than 1 run over fences, switching back to novice hurdles, but the key here is that the expected wins is 2.42, showing that they were likely to run as well as their market position might suggest.

    The market position is interesting with 41% of favourites in these races winning (33 with an Expected of 27) and second favourites not doing as well as they are expected (10 with 15 Ex) but third favourites doing better than their expected (15 from 11 Ex). These together though do make up the majority of winners in the novice races, which suggests you shouldn't stray too far from the head of the market.

    One other key bit to note is that the highest percentage of winners in the Days Since Last Run bandings are those with over 150 days since last run, with 5 from 32 winning with this lay off. The biggest band of winners are those between 29 and 42 days off, with 24 winners from 208. Shorter lay offs than that score poorly.

    So what does this all mean? You tell me!!

    In the 1:50 it suggests that we need to overlook the statistics to find the winner, Ask For Glory and Global Fame both have tongue tie and wind surgery as negatives whilst Finisk River, Does He Know, Midnight River all have short turnarounds against them. Topofthecotswolds and Domaine De L'Isle both have chase experience and are quite far down in the market so don't appeal on that angle either.

    In the 4:10 we've already seen the field cut up with the front two overnight out of the race, leaving another messy picture. Art Approval and Found On have had decent breaks before the race, and Lessankan has the first run of the season angle. Presentandcounting has a hood on which isn't an ideal angle.

    On form in the book you'd be with Faivoir, who at 4/7 is short, but it looks a penalty kick now and Skelton will be very disappointed if he doesn't win after running just 19 days ago. He lost to Cormier who isn't a good horse! I am backing Lessankan at 25/1 and Found On at 16/1 in this.

    Lessankan is the dark horse in the race, not seen under rules and who knows how good he is, but this isn't a vintage race and at silly prices he is one to note. Found On ran well last time, I think that race is as good as any these lot have run in and has had a decent break since that run. No idea why he is so big.
     
    #9
  10. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    3:00

    15 lengths behind Shiskin (159), 4 lengths behind Shan Blue (139 hurdles, 145 chase). Beat Flic Ou Voyou (137 now) by 2 lengths giving that horse 6lbs and runs today off a mark of 135!

    The horse is Up The Straight and he ran in the race that Hijack placed in at Fontwell. Interestingly if you watch that race back I think you'd say that Up The Straight travelled best and then blew up in the closing stages. He traded at 2.20 that day in the run, and is better off with Hijack than he was that day (not enough to reverse placings on pure form), yet he is double the price!!

    I think this is a serious horse and is being overlooked because of connections rather than the form in the book.
     
    #10

  11. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    Tv interest L31,

    Ask For Glory
    Mossy Fen
    Kings Lynn
    Up The Straight
    Rouge Vif
     
    #11
  12. Reebok

    Reebok Well-Known Member

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    Telly avoiders here :)

    Che

    150 Does He Know

    225 Soldier Of Love

    300 Captain Tom Cat …. Exod’ela for a place

    335 Beat The Judge - gets the nod on fitness over Rouge Vif

    Don

    240 Aberhama Gold ew 12-1 ... I almost, but not quite, chose Danzan at the foot of the field, 20lb below his last winning mark, albeit some time ago.

    315 Hochfeld ew

    Good luck all <ok>
     
    #12
  13. Steveo

    Steveo Well-Known Member

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    GALVIN and ROUGE VIF are my 2 picks for today

    Both have that all important festival form so should go close.
     
    #13
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  14. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Cheltenham

    13,50 Midnight River 3/1

    14,25 Soldier Of Love 7/1 e/w

    15,35 Beat The Judge 11/2

    17,15 Small bet on Sternrubin 22/1 e/w (lads, four places) 18/1 e/w (other bookies, five places)
     
    #14
  15. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    At Newbury I felt Wondrous Words has a touch of class compared to her rivals. Rated 86, she has been progressive and although turned over at a shade of odds-on last time, she bumped into a horse on the hat-trick that day and seemed to be unsuited by being held up while the eventual winner was positively ridden and established a lead that Wondrous Words could not close down. Well clear of the others that day from a mark of 84, the 2lbs higher mark should not be a problem if she is kept closer to the pace today. A winner on soft and with only the two runs at this 10F trip she seems sure to go close today.

    2.50 Newbury Wondrous Words 7/2
     
    #15
  16. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Mossy Fen had a pretty good season before being a bit out of his depth in the Ballymore at the festival. 5th that day was a reasonable effort and only 5YO he has scope in both age and in his physique now that he tackles fences. Today's trip should suit and he has looked a trier in the closing stages of some of his races, so he should have a decent season as a Novice Chaser. He gets 8 lbs from Galvin, who is going for a four timer but has been mega short odds in his three wins.

    2.25 Cheltenham Mossy Fen 3/1
     
    #16
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  17. dylanthomas

    dylanthomas Active Member

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    Galvin only needs to finish top 4 today to qualify for the National Hunt Chase next March so just be wary if backing that connections might not care too much if hes not back in the winners enclosure.
     
    #17
  18. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    given the NH chase is a stakes race there is no reason not to win today.
     
    #18
  19. Reebok

    Reebok Well-Known Member

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    That'll do for starters :)
     
    #19
  20. Joe_z

    Joe_z Active Member

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    Nice start Reebs good luck mate
     
    #20

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