Daily Racing Thread Friday 23rd. October 2020

Friday's Meetings

Newbury
Flat 9 Races 12:40-5:06p.m.
Doncaster
Flat 8 Races 1:00-5:03p.m.
Cheltenham
N/H 7 Races 1:50-5:15p.m.
Sligo
N/H 7 Races 2:00-5:23p.m.
Newcastle(E)
A/W 9 Races 4:30-8:30p.m.
Dundalk(E)
A/W 8 Races 4:40-8:15p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Going to take the good Doctors 2 at Cheltenham Captain Tom Cat and Katpoli along with Galvin.
So im going for 3 in a row, insanity yip but he ho away we go its me that is the donkey.

 

Cheltenham

15:00 Imperial Elysian 14/1 e/w (1/5 six places WH) (1/4 four places Coral)

 

Cheltenham 1.50 Midnight River 9/2

Think hes a class above the field. Never forget the first word i used there. Good luck tomorrow lads

 

Negative: only two debutants have won this race in the last twenty years.
Positive: both were trained by Hendo

 

Morning

2.25 Cheltenham-Mossy Fen @ 7-2 [Bet Victor]

Should do well as a chaser

 

Great to see Cheltenham is back...wont get to see any of the action sadly as working.

The 1.50pm race is quite a fascinating contest. Ask for glory (son of Fame and Glory) looks a horse going places and no surprise to read he s had a wind op being from the Nicholls yard. Whilst I expect him to win, there is some decent opposition in here and I wouldn't totally discount the bottom horse Domaine De L'isle who may give the Nicholls horse most to think about. Star horse in the Sean Curran yard, gets weight from rivals, reverts to hurdling and I think will outrun it's odds..

 

Couple of snippets from me.

Looking at all novice hurdles (non handicaps) at Cheltenham since 2015, you would be in a profit if you backed all the runners who didn't have any headgear/wind surgery/tongue ties in that time period with a ROI of 10%.

Interestingly WS1 is 0 from 6 in these races, and that includes with tongue tie on as well, which would mean me being against the Paul Nicholls favourite and also the Fergal O'Brien runner in the 1.50. Surprisingly the trainer stats are against Paul Nicholls too with only 1 from 25 winning for him in the time period and that was El Bandit at 6/5!!

Interestingly it is 2 from 12 for horses who have had more than 1 run over fences, switching back to novice hurdles, but the key here is that the expected wins is 2.42, showing that they were likely to run as well as their market position might suggest.

The market position is interesting with 41% of favourites in these races winning (33 with an Expected of 27) and second favourites not doing as well as they are expected (10 with 15 Ex) but third favourites doing better than their expected (15 from 11 Ex). These together though do make up the majority of winners in the novice races, which suggests you shouldn't stray too far from the head of the market.

One other key bit to note is that the highest percentage of winners in the Days Since Last Run bandings are those with over 150 days since last run, with 5 from 32 winning with this lay off. The biggest band of winners are those between 29 and 42 days off, with 24 winners from 208. Shorter lay offs than that score poorly.

So what does this all mean? You tell me!!

In the 1:50 it suggests that we need to overlook the statistics to find the winner, Ask For Glory and Global Fame both have tongue tie and wind surgery as negatives whilst Finisk River, Does He Know, Midnight River all have short turnarounds against them. Topofthecotswolds and Domaine De L'Isle both have chase experience and are quite far down in the market so don't appeal on that angle either.

In the 4:10 we've already seen the field cut up with the front two overnight out of the race, leaving another messy picture. Art Approval and Found On have had decent breaks before the race, and Lessankan has the first run of the season angle. Presentandcounting has a hood on which isn't an ideal angle.

On form in the book you'd be with Faivoir, who at 4/7 is short, but it looks a penalty kick now and Skelton will be very disappointed if he doesn't win after running just 19 days ago. He lost to Cormier who isn't a good horse! I am backing Lessankan at 25/1 and Found On at 16/1 in this.

Lessankan is the dark horse in the race, not seen under rules and who knows how good he is, but this isn't a vintage race and at silly prices he is one to note. Found On ran well last time, I think that race is as good as any these lot have run in and has had a decent break since that run. No idea why he is so big.

 

3:00

15 lengths behind Shiskin (159), 4 lengths behind Shan Blue (139 hurdles, 145 chase). Beat Flic Ou Voyou (137 now) by 2 lengths giving that horse 6lbs and runs today off a mark of 135!

The horse is Up The Straight and he ran in the race that Hijack placed in at Fontwell. Interestingly if you watch that race back I think you'd say that Up The Straight travelled best and then blew up in the closing stages. He traded at 2.20 that day in the run, and is better off with Hijack than he was that day (not enough to reverse placings on pure form), yet he is double the price!!

I think this is a serious horse and is being overlooked because of connections rather than the form in the book.

 

Tv interest L31,

Ask For Glory
Mossy Fen
Kings Lynn
Up The Straight
Rouge Vif

 

GALVIN and ROUGE VIF are my 2 picks for today

Both have that all important festival form so should go close.

 

Cheltenham

13,50 Midnight River 3/1

14,25 Soldier Of Love 7/1 e/w

15,35 Beat The Judge 11/2

17,15 Small bet on Sternrubin 22/1 e/w (lads, four places) 18/1 e/w (other bookies, five places)

 

At Newbury I felt Wondrous Words has a touch of class compared to her rivals. Rated 86, she has been progressive and although turned over at a shade of odds-on last time, she bumped into a horse on the hat-trick that day and seemed to be unsuited by being held up while the eventual winner was positively ridden and established a lead that Wondrous Words could not close down. Well clear of the others that day from a mark of 84, the 2lbs higher mark should not be a problem if she is kept closer to the pace today. A winner on soft and with only the two runs at this 10F trip she seems sure to go close today.

2.50 Newbury Wondrous Words 7/2

 

Mossy Fen had a pretty good season before being a bit out of his depth in the Ballymore at the festival. 5th that day was a reasonable effort and only 5YO he has scope in both age and in his physique now that he tackles fences. Today's trip should suit and he has looked a trier in the closing stages of some of his races, so he should have a decent season as a Novice Chaser. He gets 8 lbs from Galvin, who is going for a four timer but has been mega short odds in his three wins.

2.25 Cheltenham Mossy Fen 3/1

 

Galvin only needs to finish top 4 today to qualify for the National Hunt Chase next March so just be wary if backing that connections might not care too much if hes not back in the winners enclosure.

 

given the NH chase is a stakes race there is no reason not to win today.

 

Nice start Reebs good luck mate