Couple of snippets from me.
Looking at all novice hurdles (non handicaps) at Cheltenham since 2015, you would be in a profit if you backed all the runners who didn't have any headgear/wind surgery/tongue ties in that time period with a ROI of 10%.
Interestingly WS1 is 0 from 6 in these races, and that includes with tongue tie on as well, which would mean me being against the Paul Nicholls favourite and also the Fergal O'Brien runner in the 1.50. Surprisingly the trainer stats are against Paul Nicholls too with only 1 from 25 winning for him in the time period and that was El Bandit at 6/5!!
Interestingly it is 2 from 12 for horses who have had more than 1 run over fences, switching back to novice hurdles, but the key here is that the expected wins is 2.42, showing that they were likely to run as well as their market position might suggest.
The market position is interesting with 41% of favourites in these races winning (33 with an Expected of 27) and second favourites not doing as well as they are expected (10 with 15 Ex) but third favourites doing better than their expected (15 from 11 Ex). These together though do make up the majority of winners in the novice races, which suggests you shouldn't stray too far from the head of the market.
One other key bit to note is that the highest percentage of winners in the Days Since Last Run bandings are those with over 150 days since last run, with 5 from 32 winning with this lay off. The biggest band of winners are those between 29 and 42 days off, with 24 winners from 208. Shorter lay offs than that score poorly.
So what does this all mean? You tell me!!
In the 1:50 it suggests that we need to overlook the statistics to find the winner, Ask For Glory and Global Fame both have tongue tie and wind surgery as negatives whilst Finisk River, Does He Know, Midnight River all have short turnarounds against them. Topofthecotswolds and Domaine De L'Isle both have chase experience and are quite far down in the market so don't appeal on that angle either.
In the 4:10 we've already seen the field cut up with the front two overnight out of the race, leaving another messy picture. Art Approval and Found On have had decent breaks before the race, and Lessankan has the first run of the season angle. Presentandcounting has a hood on which isn't an ideal angle.
On form in the book you'd be with Faivoir, who at 4/7 is short, but it looks a penalty kick now and Skelton will be very disappointed if he doesn't win after running just 19 days ago. He lost to Cormier who isn't a good horse! I am backing Lessankan at 25/1 and Found On at 16/1 in this.
Lessankan is the dark horse in the race, not seen under rules and who knows how good he is, but this isn't a vintage race and at silly prices he is one to note. Found On ran well last time, I think that race is as good as any these lot have run in and has had a decent break since that run. No idea why he is so big.
