Daily Racing Thread Friday 23rd. August 2019

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attivo

attivo

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2014
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Friday's Meetings

Ffos Las
Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:05p.m.
York
Flat 6 Races 1:55-4:50p.m.
Newmarket
Flat 7 Races 2:05-5:30p.m.
Killarney(E)
N/H 7 Races 4:45-8:00p.m.
Goodwood(E)
Flat 6 Races 5:00-7:35p.m.
Curragh(E)
Flat 7 Races 5:10-8:10p.m.
Salisbury(E)
Flat 6 Races 5:15-7:50p.m.
Chelmsford(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:45-8:45p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck <ok>
 
Looks like Cheveley Park have come to their senses and booked a top jockey, Oisin Murphy on Threat tomorrow, suspect he will get the job done on a horse who really ought to be unbeaten this season.

Hannon has a very nice crop of 2yos and I think Threat is in the top 3 with Man of The Night and Mums Tipple.
 
twistedteapot said:
Got word for
Rattling Jewel 8.10 The Curragh
Gluck all who play
Click to expand...
Very tough race that. I know the owner of Baby Run and they are hoping for a good run so backed it ew at 12s. It won at the Curragh a couple of months back at 25s:They were were confident of a big run that day and it duly obliged with the help of a loose horse causing havoc at the front!
 
Friday looks like another Gosden/Dettori-fest with Stradivarius picking up the stayers’ bonus again. Anybody interested in a sporting wager on Dee Ex Bee just in case Gosden has over celebrated Enable winning? It is not like this race is worth nothing, so why are others standing in their boxes earning nothing when there is £48k for second and money down to sixth?

Will Frankie still be playing his mandolin after the first race?

At least there is a good sized field for the Gimcrack, so punters have got something to get interested in. I have to say that after his disappointing showing last time, I would not be in any hurry to get involved with Threat. He is starting to look like an excuse horse and they quickly empty wallets (if he trots up by five lengths, I never said that). I wish I could come up with a solid form reason to back one of the others!

The Nunthorpe is a quandary. I would pile into Battaash to beat hyped-up Ten Sovereigns but he just does not seem to like this race (beaten last two years). In a race where there are a lot that seem to be just making up the numbers, I will be cheering for Michael Dods’ mare Mabs Cross – his yard is doing great and she does already have an Abbaye to her name!

I reckon I will have to look at the card at HQ to find something to actually lose money on... maybe I have met my Waterloo. <laugh>
 
Molatham already smashed into 6/4 in the 4.15 (came a close second to Mums Tipple at Ascot )

Could be the last leg of a treble for me. I will add Stradivarius and Threat.

The Nunthorpe is wide open I think
 
Timeform ratings for the sprint

Only 2 of Battaash's opponents rated within a stone of him. On Timeform ratings, Ten Sovereigns has 5lb to find on Battaash. At the start of the season I had predicted Ten Sovereigns to take the major sprints this year so, much as I am a fan of Battaash, I have to go with my prediction and see Ten Sovereigns emerge as the year's top sprinter

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Morning

Away from York..I Like

6.05 Goodwood-Indian Creek

Each Way @ 11-2 [Marathon Bet]
 
..and at York

4.15-Dubai Mirage @ 4-1 [Bet 365]

Murphy was sick as a parrot when getting chinned on this colts debut
 
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I'm going for Gibbs Hill 14/1 (5 places) in the first at York today. Came back from a very long absence when was very well backed in the Northumberland Plate only to fade very tamely. I am taking a chance that his last run was down to match fitness rather than a problem with the horse. Shorter trip today, should be more race ready after last time and assuming all is well with the horse then looks a cracking each way bet.

In the last i'm on Biometric @ 9s. Was very disappointing last time but that looks like a blip and just a bad run that can be written off. Again making assumptions here but if i'm right the price looks huge to me so i'm willing to risk it. Win only.

EW double on the pair
 
I have to mention Jazeel in the first at York for Jedd O'keeffe, his horses are jumping out their skin at present and with Marnie James and Rare Groove both only finding one too good i think ( hope ) Jazeel will provide a well deserved winner for the stable.
 
Battaash has a poor record by his standards on the Knavesmire so would have to take him on today. I am hoping Ten Sovereigns is given a hard enough race to ensure he misses the Haydock race in a fortnights time. I love FAIRYLAND and hope she runs a big race today. She deserves to win a decent pot and in any other yard I am sure her campaign would have been more cleverly planned out.
 
york,1 55:

a wide open start to proceedings.PERSIAN MOON,though,could go very well here.although there were one or two hiccups on the way this season,hes been running mainly with credit,often in tough listed/group races.his best form is probably his seasonal debut third to high class horses like bangkok and technician in a derby trial at sandown.has also dropped a few pounds since,so with a clear run,can have a big say today..e w value.
 
In the 4.15 York Molatham got a huge boost from the performance of Mum's Tipple yesterday but sometimes the performance of one horse results in over-backing of one who ran against that horse earlier. Mum's Tipple improved 37 lbs on ratings from 82 to 119 in romping home yesterday and making assumptions about Molatham making anywhere near the same progress is likely to be proved incorrect. The form of Mum's Tipple's first race looks good at first glance with the 4th and 5th winning since but closer examination reveals that both horses were well odds on and we need to consider the strength of their winning form for perspective on the other horses Molatham raced against on his debut.

The 4th horse home Mr Kiki, went on to win at 4/6 in a Yarmouth race next time out. Rated 79 behind Mum's Tipple, he won with a performance rated 77, so rather than progressing, he won with a slightly lower performance.

The 5th Horse was Surf Dancer was 4/7 Fav at Leicester next time and won with a rating of 86, which was a good improvement on his debut of 73. That 86 number is a decent figure but it is nothing like the 119 recorded by Mum's Tipple next time.

Molataham comes in rated 81 and that is a good building block figure for a maiden race. The problem is that three others have slightly higher ratings and also have scope to progress. Celtic Art has had two races, so perhaps has slightly less potential than Dubai Mirage and Fox Duty Free who have only had one start. Dubai Mirage is yet another Godolphin owned son of Dubawi and he went very close on debut giving the odds-on Native Tribe a huge fright before failing narrowly. That race was over a mile though and he meets opposition coming up from 6F in this middle distance of 7F. I am not really a fan of following juveniles dropping down in trip and the Topspeed figure for his race was a modest 42.

The one I am going with is Fox Duty Free. The Andrew Balding trained colt is a son of Kingman and he was well backed on debut. He was carried wide coming out of the stalls and ended up pretty much last and some way behind the front runners. With 2F to go he had a pretty much hopeless task but he picked up really well to come through for 3rd and not beaten far. I thought he was unlucky to lose that day and the style of the win suggested he will appreciate the extra furlong today. Fox Duty Free was a bit green last time and I expect decent improvement today. He is rated 83 at the moment I feel he can post a figure into the 90's today and that may be enough to win it. William Haggas' Rivet won this race three years ago, coming in rated 82 and recording a new rating of 94. He would later win the Champagne Stakes and Racing Post Trophy and while that is a big act to follow I feel today's winner can take a similar first step.

4.15 York Fox Duty Free 7/2

I'll be disappointed if he doesn't win and I would lay Molatham at 2/1.
 
Over in Ireland we have the Debutante and Futurity races this evening. Armory is a shade of odds-on despite facing Justifier, who was ahead of him on debut. Armory has won twice since then and Justifier also followed up next time. The O'Brien Galileo's are notorious for needing their debut runs and the betting is expecting Armory to reverse the form this time.

Iberia won first time up and winners have come from that race since. I feel he is a good prospect and 13/2 is well worth an each-way poke. I think he is a bigger danger than Justifier and 13/2 looks huge.

Earlier I am sticking with Alpine Rose after putting her up on the 2YO thread. 3rd On debut, she came on from that to win next time and I think she will progress again tonight to defy favourite Love, who had looked nothing special before her Silver Flash win.

6.40 Alpine Star 11/4

7.10 Iberia 13/2 EW
 
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