Daily Racing Thread Friday 1st. March 2019
- Thread starter attivo
- Start date
-
Please bear with us on the new site integration and fixing any known bugs over the coming days. If you can not log in please try resetting your password and check your spam box. If you have tried these steps and are still struggling email [email protected] with your username/registered email address
-
Surely you went each way?
Was only 12/1 this morning so probably not an ew price for a lot of people (myself included)
12/1 1/4 the odds four places e/w isn’t bad odds , you still double your stake with a place !
Double bugger, one touched off for the win and the second run out of a place and I reckon a few on here would have done the ew double.
Surely you went each way?
I am not saying that I never back EW but in general I have the ethos that if you are backing a horse you should back it to win, if you dont think it is going to win you shouldnt be backing it at all.
The market regarding Copper Gone West was interesting, 12/1 when I put it up but many bookies had it as low as 13/2 by bedtime. During the day it drifted like the proverbial barge out to 33/1 at one point, that would have been an EW price for me, then late it shortened in to 20/1. Ran a belter as you all saw and looked to me like it would come and win the race jumping the last. The game for me is about trying to beat the book and having some fun, it fulfilled the latter criteria.
That Dundalk race is interesting Ron.
Personally I don't like potential Classic horses running this early in the season and both Western Australia and Van Beethoven look very exposed sorts to me.
A few people on forums I used to read thought that Van Beethoven might make up into a 2000 Guineas contender at 3YO but I felt the horse was doubtful to stay a mile and after his win in a weak renewal of the Railway Stakes he was put in his place often enough at 7F for me to rule him out as a Classic horse. His official rating of 105 is low for a Group 2 winner and after eight starts at 2YO, I cannot concur with the Racing Post that the son of Scat Daddy has "An exciting season in front of him", he is very weak at 13/2 for tonight's race.
Western Australia looked nothing special at 2YO, winning just a Gowran Park maiden. His clear best rating is based on believing that he improved about a stone in finishing third in the Racing Post Trophy race at Doncaster. He was a 50/1 shot at Donny and had been well beaten two weeks earlier behind Persian King, a run that saw his official mark dropped by 2 lbs. His mark was hoisted 7 lbs to 110 after the run behind stablemate Magna Grecia but it had looked a substandard renewal of the traditional pointer for Derby contenders the following year. Fairly weak in the market this morning, you can get 6/4 on what looks the first string by some way for the O'Brien team.
Albuquerque ran down the field in a Spring maiden that threw up several winners but he himself was not seen again until winning a late October maiden at Gowran Park. Obviously pen to improvement but he needs find 20 lbs plus to reach the level of the top rated here. Betting suggests he is not fancied today, with only the rank outsider priced up bigger than his 16/1 odds.
Barys comes here fit after a win in France. That victory represented an improvement of 10 bs on RPRs and 14 bs with the official assessor. He still has something to find on the formbook but he has won and at the trip into the bargain. He could feasibly improve again and perhaps cause a mini upset.
Playa Del Puente has been positive in the betting and he has course and distance form on his side. He is quite tight in the Ratings with Barys but at 10/3 he's a bit tight in the betting for me.
Numerian and Colfer Me are tied on Racing Post Ratings and they have defeated each other on separate occasions. Numerian is the more popular of the two in the betting today.
In summary it's probably a race where Aiden will be looking to cement Western Australia as a Kentucky Derby contender. To me, he looks a weaker candidate than the trainer has had in past and money has not come for him thus far today.
From my point of view I feel Barys is the bet each-way at 8/1. Van Beethoven may be sacrificed to set it up for the favourite and I think Playa Del Puente is too short. Hopefully Barys can make his fitness tell and can hold off Western Australia. I would be disappointed to see him fail to place here.
7.45 Dundalk Barys 8/1 Each-Way with the bare eight runners appeals.
Personally I don't like potential Classic horses running this early in the season and both Western Australia and Van Beethoven look very exposed sorts to me.
A few people on forums I used to read thought that Van Beethoven might make up into a 2000 Guineas contender at 3YO but I felt the horse was doubtful to stay a mile and after his win in a weak renewal of the Railway Stakes he was put in his place often enough at 7F for me to rule him out as a Classic horse. His official rating of 105 is low for a Group 2 winner and after eight starts at 2YO, I cannot concur with the Racing Post that the son of Scat Daddy has "An exciting season in front of him", he is very weak at 13/2 for tonight's race.
Western Australia looked nothing special at 2YO, winning just a Gowran Park maiden. His clear best rating is based on believing that he improved about a stone in finishing third in the Racing Post Trophy race at Doncaster. He was a 50/1 shot at Donny and had been well beaten two weeks earlier behind Persian King, a run that saw his official mark dropped by 2 lbs. His mark was hoisted 7 lbs to 110 after the run behind stablemate Magna Grecia but it had looked a substandard renewal of the traditional pointer for Derby contenders the following year. Fairly weak in the market this morning, you can get 6/4 on what looks the first string by some way for the O'Brien team.
Albuquerque ran down the field in a Spring maiden that threw up several winners but he himself was not seen again until winning a late October maiden at Gowran Park. Obviously pen to improvement but he needs find 20 lbs plus to reach the level of the top rated here. Betting suggests he is not fancied today, with only the rank outsider priced up bigger than his 16/1 odds.
Barys comes here fit after a win in France. That victory represented an improvement of 10 bs on RPRs and 14 bs with the official assessor. He still has something to find on the formbook but he has won and at the trip into the bargain. He could feasibly improve again and perhaps cause a mini upset.
Playa Del Puente has been positive in the betting and he has course and distance form on his side. He is quite tight in the Ratings with Barys but at 10/3 he's a bit tight in the betting for me.
Numerian and Colfer Me are tied on Racing Post Ratings and they have defeated each other on separate occasions. Numerian is the more popular of the two in the betting today.
In summary it's probably a race where Aiden will be looking to cement Western Australia as a Kentucky Derby contender. To me, he looks a weaker candidate than the trainer has had in past and money has not come for him thus far today.
From my point of view I feel Barys is the bet each-way at 8/1. Van Beethoven may be sacrificed to set it up for the favourite and I think Playa Del Puente is too short. Hopefully Barys can make his fitness tell and can hold off Western Australia. I would be disappointed to see him fail to place here.
7.45 Dundalk Barys 8/1 Each-Way with the bare eight runners appeals.
Meeting called off due a serious medical incident involving one of the security team collapsing in the winners enclosure.
Earlier the War Front colt USS Michagan had won nicely at short odds for Aiden O'Brien. I made a note of the horse last year after he nearly won his first race despite being a massive youngster with little clue how to use his physique. We never saw him again though.
O'Brien explained tonight that they decided to give the colt more time because he was such a big horse. It was said that he may go to a trial race at Chelmsford next.
Regarding Western Australia's race they said that it may be rearranged.
Earlier the War Front colt USS Michagan had won nicely at short odds for Aiden O'Brien. I made a note of the horse last year after he nearly won his first race despite being a massive youngster with little clue how to use his physique. We never saw him again though.
O'Brien explained tonight that they decided to give the colt more time because he was such a big horse. It was said that he may go to a trial race at Chelmsford next.
Regarding Western Australia's race they said that it may be rearranged.
So let's say £20 win at 12/1 = £20 loss
£20 each way = 12s 1/4 odd..so £20 x 3 = £60 plus your £20 back..that s £80 so £40 quid profit as opposed £20 loss..I know what I rather have especially with chance of the win bet too..
the win didn't come in but I am more than compensated...
So let's say £20 win at 12/1 = £20 loss
£20 each way = 12s 1/4 odd..so £20 x 3 = £60 plus your £20 back..that s £80 so £40 quid profit as opposed £20 loss..I know what I rather have especially with chance of the win bet too..
£20 win is a £20 bet
£20EW is a £40 bet
It has been proven that your profit level improves if you bet win only. Go back through your betting history and you can prove it to yourself.
So let's say £20 win at 12/1 = £20 loss
£20 each way = 12s 1/4 odd..so £20 x 3 = £60 plus your £20 back..that s £80 so £40 quid profit as opposed £20 loss..I know what I rather have especially with chance of the win bet too..
And you're risking double the money because you're going ew for what will be only little reward for a place
Obviously but the risk is bigger of getting nothing if you go win only....I would rather get something back than nothing at all.
Lets say there are only 8 runners...that's a 38% of getting something back if you go each way as opposed to a 13% chance of getting something back if win only. you might be betting double stake but you are not far off a 50% chance of getting something back or making some sort of profit. I like those odds..
I don't bank on making big profits when I bet .... I sometimes bet quite big but I like to cover the loss as much as possible, Anything can happen in this game..
Yes sadly restricted by one bookmaker Stick. Never been banned or had an account closed though. This was over 10 years ago when a number of accumulator bets came in for me...more luck than anything else but I went on a good run. They clearly didn't like it and they spoke to me about it. I don't place any business witb them as a result but there are more bookies around these days so no problemo. I hardly ever place accumulator bets these days maybe I should start again.. 