Frankel's Form

[PNkt]

I've been working on this over the past few days and thought I would share with you all. Everyone will interpret it differently, but these are the facts about Frankel's 12 races so far:


Maiden
11 opponents
0 previous winners
8 subsequent winners (from 11 runners)
3 subsequent Group horses (G1 Nathaniel, G1 Colour Vision , G3 Genius Beast)

Conditions
2 opponents
1 previous winner
1 subsequent winner (from 1 runner)

Royal Lodge
4 opponents
4 previous winners
1 previous Listed winner (Klammer)
3 subsequent winners (from 3 runners)
3 subsequent Group horses (G1 Treasure Beach, G2 Slim Shady, G3 Klammer)

Dewhurst
5 opponents
4 previous winners
3 previous Group winners (G3 New Greenfield, G2 Saamidd, G1 Dream Ahead)
4 subsequent winners (from 5 runners)
2 subsequent Group winners (G1 Roderic O’Connor, G1 Dream Ahead)

Greenham
5 opponents
5 previous winners
1 Previous Group winner (G2 Strong Suit, also G1 placed)
3 subsequent winners (from 5 runners)
2 subsequent Group winners (G2 Strong Suit, G1 Excelebration)

Guineas
12 opponents
12 previous winners
7 previous Group winners (G1 Roderic O’Connor, G1 Casamento, G1 Pathfork, G2 Saamidd, G3 Rerouted, G3 Native Khan, G3 Broox)
5 subsequent winners (from 12 runners)
4 subsequent Group winners (G1 Roderic O’Connor, G2 Dubawi Gold, G2 Slim Shady, G3 Casamento)

St James’s Palace
8 opponents
8 previous winners
6 previous Group horses (G1 Grand Prix Boss, G1 Wootton Bassett, G1 Dream Ahead, G1 Zoffany, G2 Excelebration, G3 Rerouted)
4 subsequent winners (from 8 runners)
3 subsequent Group horses (G1 Dream Ahead, G1 Excelebration, G2 Dubawi Gold)

Sussex
3 opponents
3 previous winners
3 previous Group winners (G1 Canford Cliffs, G1 Rio de la Plata, G2 Rajsaman)
1 subsequent winner (from 2 runners)
1 subsequent Group winner (G2 Rajsaman)

QEII
7 opponents
7 previous winners
7 previous Group winners (G1 Poet’s Voice, G1 Dick Turpin, G1 Immortal Verse, G1 Excelebration, G2 Dubawi Gold, G3 Bullet Train, G3 Side Glance)
2 subsequent winners (from 5 runners)
2 subsequent Group horses (G1 Excelebration, G3 Side Glance)

Lockinge
5 opponents
5 previous winners
5 previous Group winners (G1 Excelebration, G2 Dubawi Gold, G2 Ransom Note, G3 Bullet Train, G3 Windsor Palace)
1 subsequent winner (from 4 runners)
1 subsequent Group winner (G1 Excelebration)

Queen Anne
10 opponents
10 previous winners
9 previous Group winners (G1 Helmet, G1 Excelebration, G2 Worthadd, G2 Strong Suit, G2 Red Jazz, G2 Premio Loco, G3 Bullet Train, G3 Windsor Palace, G3 Side Glance)
1 subsequent winner (from 9 runners)
1 subsequent Group winner (G1 Excelebration)

Sussex
3 opponents
3 previous winners
1 previous Group winner (G3 Bullet Train, though Farhh 3 x G1 placed)
0 subsequent winners (from 1 runner)

Obviously we will have a better idea about the form of his 2012 races at the end of the season.


By my calculations Frankel has, to date, beaten 57 individual horses in his 12 races

Of these 13 (23%) were previous Group 1 winners, 9 (16%) previous Group 2 winners and 7 (12%)previous G3 winners.

The horses he has beaten have subsequently thrown up 6 G1 winners, 4 G2 winners and 4 G3 winners.

Make of it what you will!

 

[rainbowview]

Nice work PN and thank you for sharing.


After watching Excelebration win a Group 1 on Sunday it is unbelievable looking back at how impressive Frankel is when he races against him. Especially in the QEII this year.

 

[PNkt]

Cheers RV.

I forgot to add, though you can do the maths yourself, that the above figures mean almost 51% of the horses Frankel has beaten were previous Group winners and 24.5% have gone on to win at Group level (not counting those that have been placed at G1 level without getting their nose in front).

That, to me, is a damn good strike rate. If you strip out the horses that never raced again after meeting Frankel (9 if you include Bullet Train and Farhh to date), the statistics are even better.

 

[Tamerlo]

Princess, thanks for your efforts.
What your information says to me is..."Thank God for Frankel!"
Given that he has contested and won 8 Group One races, therefore he's met only 13 previous Group One winners in those races- and 3 of those were in his first Group One as a 3 year old ie.The 2000 Guineas.
So in his subsequent 6 Group One wins to date, he has met 10 Group One winners- including none in the recent pathetic 4 horse race for The Sussex where he had effectively only two opponents; and he faces an average of only 6 horses for our top races.
I have been disturbed for a while now about the lack of competitiveness in top races. Given that Group Ones are supposed to primarily attract Group One horses, then where are they?
Frankel is facing only three Group One winners in every two Group Ones ie. 1.5 per race. That's a very disturbing statistic- especially coupled with the small fields!
I have no idea how many Group One winners are contesting Group One races "year on year" but I don't think we can dismiss these stats as merely indicative of Frankel "scaring off the opposition."
I don't know what the answer is, or am I overreacting to just a "phase " in the calendar?
What do you think, Princess?

 

[OddDog]

On paper his Guineas looked a stellar field. The subsequent exploits of the other protagonists has let the form down somewhat though.

Tam - is the dearth of top class milers perhaps indicative of where the breeding has been going over many years now - "speed is good but stamina is a must" ????

 

[PNkt]

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Tamerlo, I dont know the answer to that one is the honest answer. Certainly, in part, the small fields have been due to the "Frankel Factor".

I have to wonder if another factor is fear of getting too high a handicap mark. Not every horse that runs at Group level can win, and many trainers are afraid of finishing too close to a decent horse and finding themselves saddled with a big rating when dropping down in company.

 

[Bluesky9]

Fantastic work princess and a truely superb racing record. I think as has already been mentioned it is Excelebration that constantly makes the form stand out as he takes his other races pretty easily and yet cannot get anywhere near Frankel without Frankel ever being asked a question.

 

[PNkt]

Just done a little further research to try and scotch the claims that "Frankel has beaten nothing":

The 17 horses he has beaten that have won at Group 1 level (I know this doesn't quite add up to the figure I said above, but that is because I can only count Dream Ahead and Excelebration once - both were G1 horses before and after meeting Frankel) are responsible for no less than 34 Group 1 wins That figure astonished even me!

I'm sure someone will question my figures, so here goes with the definitive list:

Canford Cliffs: 2010 Irish 2,000 Guineas (IRE); 2010 St James’s Palace; 2010 Sussex; 2011 Lockinge; 2011 Queen Anne
Casamento: 2010 Racing Post Trophy
Colour Vision: 2012 Ascot Gold Cup
Dick Turpin: 2010 Prix Jean Prat (FR); 2011 Premio Vittorio Di Capua (ITY)
Dream Ahead: 2010 Prix Morny (FR); 2010 Middle Park; 2011 July Cup; 2011 Sprint Cup; 2011 Prix de la Foret (FR)
Excelbration: 2011 Prix du Moulin (FR); 2012 Prix Jacques le Marois (FR)
Immortal Verse: 2011 Coronation Stakes; 2011 Prix Jacques le Marois (FR)
Grand Prix Boss: 2010 Futurity Stakes (JPN); 2011 NHK Mile Cup (JPN)
Helmet: 2011 Inglis Sires Produce Stakes (AUS); 2011 Caulfield Guineas (AUS)
Nathanial: 2011 King George, 2012 Eclipse
Pathfork: 2010 National Stakes (IRE)
Poet’s Voice: 2010 QE II
Rio de la Plata: 2007 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (FR); 2010 Premio Vittorio Di Capua (ITY)
Roderic O'Connor:2010 Criterium International (FR); 2011 Irish 2,000 Guineas (IRE)
Treasure Beach: 2011 Irish Derby; 2011 Secretariat Stakes (USA)
Wootton Basset: 2010 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (FR)
Zoffany: 2010 Phoenix Stakes (IRE)

 

[PNkt]

So, I'll be updating this thread over the next few days!

York is buzzing, I've never heard the cheers for Frankel any louder!

 

[Tamerlo]

Just done a little further research to try and scotch the claims that "Frankel has beaten nothing":

The 17 horses he has beaten that have won at Group 1 level (I know this doesn't quite add up to the figure I said above, but that is because I can only count Dream Ahead and Excelebration once - both were G1 horses before and after meeting Frankel) are responsible for no less than 34 Group 1 wins That figure astonished even me!

I'm sure someone will question my figures, so here goes with the definitive list:

Canford Cliffs: 2010 Irish 2,000 Guineas (IRE); 2010 St James’s Palace; 2010 Sussex; 2011 Lockinge; 2011 Queen Anne
Casamento: 2010 Racing Post Trophy
Colour Vision: 2012 Ascot Gold Cup
Dick Turpin: 2010 Prix Jean Prat (FR); 2011 Premio Vittorio Di Capua (ITY)
Dream Ahead: 2010 Prix Morny (FR); 2010 Middle Park; 2011 July Cup; 2011 Sprint Cup; 2011 Prix de la Foret (FR)
Excelbration: 2011 Prix du Moulin (FR); 2012 Prix Jacques le Marois (FR)
Immortal Verse: 2011 Coronation Stakes; 2011 Prix Jacques le Marois (FR)
Grand Prix Boss: 2010 Futurity Stakes (JPN); 2011 NHK Mile Cup (JPN)
Helmet: 2011 Inglis Sires Produce Stakes (AUS); 2011 Caulfield Guineas (AUS)
Nathanial: 2011 King George, 2012 Eclipse
Pathfork: 2010 National Stakes (IRE)
Poet’s Voice: 2010 QE II
Rio de la Plata: 2007 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (FR); 2010 Premio Vittorio Di Capua (ITY)
Roderic O'Connor:2010 Criterium International (FR); 2011 Irish 2,000 Guineas (IRE)
Treasure Beach: 2011 Irish Derby; 2011 Secretariat Stakes (USA)
Wootton Basset: 2010 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (FR)
Zoffany: 2010 Phoenix Stakes (IRE)

Another great performance by Frankel today, but I find this argument a little specious.
Firstly, I don't think there's a horse in that list rated within a stone of Frankel, and that's not to undermine him- I don't rate them as a great "Group One bunch, " given what they have achieved over a three year period, and especially in the last two years.
Counting up collective Group One winners - either current or subsequent to running against Frankel- is a dubious practice at best.
So 17 horses have amassed 35 Group One wins between them over a period of three years. I don't see that as anything extraordinary. There are about 30 Group Ones per year- and some horses have to win them, irrespective of the overall strength in depth.
I could use another argument, likewise specious, that Brigadier Gerard and three other horses (My Swallow, Mill Reef, Minsky) that ran in the 1971 2000 Guineas amassed about half that number of equivalent Group One wins in their own right; and that's only four horses from one race, not 17 over their careers to date.
God knows how many 'Group One equivalent winners' Brigadier Gerard met in his 18 races. I think you'd find the quality and number would be quite revealing.
Having said all that, Frankel sure is a fantastic racehorse- right up there with the best of them. I just don't believe it's a purple period for the top horses overall.

 

[Janabelle13]

Awesome performance by Frankel today. Ending his career by winning the Champion Stakes on Champions Day would be most fitting.

 

[Ron]

What would make him an immortal is to mosy on over here and turn the Arc into a procession. After that, I could happily die, knowing I had witnessed the greatest race horse of all time.

 

[PNkt]

Sir Henry has the final say in where he goes. He was 100% right in his statement at the start of the year that Frankel would easily get 1m2f, but has equally said that he didn't think he'd get 1m4f. Of course things may have changed now, and were he mine, I'd probably be very tempted by the Arc.

The fact is though, he's not in the Arc at the moment and the supplementary stage is not until a few days before the race so the decision is a way off. Connections have been very open and honest about their plans for the horse, so I'd suspect we'll hear sooner or later the plans for the last few starts.

If memory serves correctly, the Moulin entries are made today so we'll see whether that is still the plan.

 

[gazboy]

So the forms a bit ropey eh?

What is to be gained from the Arc? Would it increase any breeding fees? If Frankel lost would it lower them?

 

[OddDog]

Another great performance by Frankel today, but I find this argument a little specious.
Firstly, I don't think there's a horse in that list rated within a stone of Frankel, and that's not to undermine him- I don't rate them as a great "Group One bunch, " given what they have achieved over a three year period, and especially in the last two years.
Counting up collective Group One winners - either current or subsequent to running against Frankel- is a dubious practice at best.
So 17 horses have amassed 35 Group One wins between them over a period of three years. I don't see that as anything extraordinary. There are about 30 Group Ones per year- and some horses have to win them, irrespective of the overall strength in depth.
I could use another argument, likewise specious, that Brigadier Gerard and three other horses (My Swallow, Mill Reef, Minsky) that ran in the 1971 2000 Guineas amassed about half that number of equivalent Group One wins in their own right; and that's only four horses from one race, not 17 over their careers to date.
God knows how many 'Group One equivalent winners' Brigadier Gerard met in his 18 races. I think you'd find the quality and number would be quite revealing.
Having said all that, Frankel sure is a fantastic racehorse- right up there with the best of them. I just don't believe it's a purple period for the top horses overall.

You are right to question the worth of the analysis Tam but I do think the work Princess has done has its value in terms of trying to assess the relative merits of horses from different eras. Whilst there is, of cours, much subjectivity here (a G1 isn't always a G1 ) I think the number of group winners a horse has beaten (or in Frankel's case - demolished) is a good guide to the beast's talents.

Holes can be picked in many horses form - the maiden win of Frankel over Nathaniel is probably largely irrelevant as a piece of form. I would probably argue along the same lines for Brigadier Gerard's beating of Mill Reef in the 2000 GNS - given what Mill Reef subsequently achieved it is hard to think of him as a miler. Reminds me of a few seasons ago where New Approach was a wonderful Derby winner but couldn't live with Henrythenavigator over a mile (much to the detriment of my wallet )

 

[SwanHills]

On reflection, I can see nothing amiss with Frankel's overall form............

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Some time ago, a good lady from one of the horseracing authorities sent me a summary (which I have stupidly mislaid) of at least 13 of the horses that Sea Bird II trounced in the 1965 Arc. The whole lot of them had strings of classics and Group-1 victories in their respective CVs, and Sea Bird II beat them all out of sight by some 6-lengths after hanging really badly left in the straight at Longchamp. Frankel is right up there with the greatest IMHO. However, Sir Henry could well be right that 1-1/2 miles might be a step too far? Wonder if we'll ever find out.

 

[OddDog]

Morning Swanny. You'd think one of our racecourses could organise a gallop for him over 12F ?? Put him alongside one of the yard's confirmed stayers and see how he goes. Obviously no trying to break the track record or such, but a good gallop over 12F and press the button 2 out to see if he's anything left?? Plenty of time between now and the Arc to test it out

 

[redcgull]

I think that its just human nature to question something you dont believe to be true, or you start to wonder if something is different in some way, and with Frankel winning by such a margin you start to ask 'What has he beaten there...?'

Had the outcome of that race finished the same but without Frankel in it i think we would all be saying what a great race it was, how well Farhh and SNA had run etc... But Frankel beat them by so much you sort of get a little confused as to how far he was in front of his rivals and what he had just done... I was just laughing at the end, dont know why, but i was just amazed at what id seen.

Im not questioning your judgement Tam, your far more knowledgeable than i ever will be, but my eyes are telling me that Frankel is some wonder horse and if i had anything in my memory that i could compare him with then ive been fortunate... Never saw Brigadier General run but if you are saying that Frankels form is the same, equal or very close to then he was a special horse as well. You lucky man for seeing both...

 

[SwanHills]

Good day, Oddy! That would be a good idea to really test him, maybe using two or three good horses in tandem (just to make it unfair on Frankel!). One big problem I have with racing in France is their idea of the going. Ron will probably disagree living in France, but their idea of good ground is not mine, as it's usually something like good-to-soft. When the French say 'très souple' it just ain't 'very soft', it's well on the way to being a bog IMHO, and I don't care what or whose penetration stick they use either. Another thing, of course, is Longchamp itself. Queally would have to be ultra-careful not to be boxed-in, the French are really adept at that game. Do you remember Sea The Stars in the Arc? He was in an awful position at one time during the race, and it was only the horse's bravery and brilliance, aided by Mick Kinane's great skill, which got him out of a tight situation?

All said and done, 'faint heart never won........' etc., etc., so I guess he should have a bash, if he passes your suggested trials. God, I'd hate to see him lose though, have to be honest there.

 

[OddDog]

I think the supplementary stage is only a few days before the race Swanny so they would have a pretty decent idea of the going by then. If it's a bog, don't bother and just head to Ascot. But if it's good ground (and I think we'll have a late summer this year) then go for it