At a guess I'd think they're looking at a campaign taking in all the major 1m4f races. Perhaps Coronation, King George, Arc and, possibly, Breeders Cup? Could warm up for the season in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket in the spring - if they put him away now he won't carry a G1 penalty in the G2.
Frankel - Stud Career
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So near yet so far for a first European G1 winner!
Here's this week's entries:
Tuesday (entries)
SPANISH POINT in a Maiden at Listowel (2 year old)
Wednesday (entries)
BETTY F in a Conditions Stakes at Doncaster (2 year old)
MIRAGE DANCER in a Conditions Stakes at Doncaster
Thursday (entries)
AMBROSIA in a Maiden at Chepstow
ALJEZEERA in the G2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster
SOLO SAXOPHONE in a Maiden at Listowel
Friday (entries)
RED MIST in the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster (2 year old)
LA FIGLIA in the G3 Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster
MEKONG in a Novice Stakes at Sandown (2 year old)
Here's this week's entries:
Tuesday (entries)
SPANISH POINT in a Maiden at Listowel (2 year old)
Wednesday (entries)
BETTY F in a Conditions Stakes at Doncaster (2 year old)
MIRAGE DANCER in a Conditions Stakes at Doncaster
Thursday (entries)
AMBROSIA in a Maiden at Chepstow
ALJEZEERA in the G2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster
SOLO SAXOPHONE in a Maiden at Listowel
Friday (entries)
RED MIST in the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster (2 year old)
LA FIGLIA in the G3 Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster
MEKONG in a Novice Stakes at Sandown (2 year old)
Update on EMINENT from Racing Post:
"While the first two will run again, the third home, long-time pacesetter Eminent, is unlikely to – with trainer Martyn Meade keen to draw stumps after a long season that started in April in the Craven.
"He ran a really good race, you couldn't really be disappointed with him," said Meade. "It's always a big risk to run from the front in these races and he's done well in the circumstances.
"He's had a busy season and Frankie [Dettori] gave him a great ride – he was there to be shot at and I fear the ground was just that bit slower on the rail than it was up the middle; that's often the case, and they had a lot of rain. If it had been faster it would have helped him a bit – the ground just got to the bottom of him."
He added: "I still think he has a bit of furnishing to do, so he'll be put away now. He's done a hell of a job to run the races he has. It would have been nice to go for his break off a win but, in the cold light of day, third in a race like that is excellent.
"We'll give him a nice, long break and bring him back slowly. I think we'll really see the best of him next year, and something like the Prince of Wales's might be the ideal starting point."
"While the first two will run again, the third home, long-time pacesetter Eminent, is unlikely to – with trainer Martyn Meade keen to draw stumps after a long season that started in April in the Craven.
"He ran a really good race, you couldn't really be disappointed with him," said Meade. "It's always a big risk to run from the front in these races and he's done well in the circumstances.
"He's had a busy season and Frankie [Dettori] gave him a great ride – he was there to be shot at and I fear the ground was just that bit slower on the rail than it was up the middle; that's often the case, and they had a lot of rain. If it had been faster it would have helped him a bit – the ground just got to the bottom of him."
He added: "I still think he has a bit of furnishing to do, so he'll be put away now. He's done a hell of a job to run the races he has. It would have been nice to go for his break off a win but, in the cold light of day, third in a race like that is excellent.
"We'll give him a nice, long break and bring him back slowly. I think we'll really see the best of him next year, and something like the Prince of Wales's might be the ideal starting point."
Frankel leading Second Crop sire in Europe. Look at those Stakes figures compared to all the rest!
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Wednesday (declared)
MIRAGE DANCER in a Conditions Stakes at Doncaster
WOMAN in a Maiden in Australia
TSAVO in a Maiden at Saint-Cloud
CALL THE WIND in a Maiden at Saint-Cloud
Thursday (declared)
ALJEZEERA in the G2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster
SOLO SAXOPHONE in a Maiden at Listowel
Friday (entries)
RED MIST in the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster (2 year old)
LA FIGLIA in the G3 Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster
MEKONG in a Novice Stakes at Sandown (2 year old)
Saturday (entries)
COUNT OCTAVE in the G1 St Leger at Doncaster
RED MIST in the G2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster
WESTERLAND in the G2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster
FRIMA in the G3 Lanwade Stud Dtakes at Gowran Park
WESTERLAND in a Nursery Handicap at Doncaster
HARBA in a Fillies Handicap at Musselburgh
STRAIGHT SHOOTER in the G3 Prince d'Orange at Maisons-Laffitte
STRAIGHT SHOOTER in the G3 La Coupe de Maisons-Lafitte at Maisons-Laffitte
MIRAGE DANCER in a Conditions Stakes at Doncaster
WOMAN in a Maiden in Australia
TSAVO in a Maiden at Saint-Cloud
CALL THE WIND in a Maiden at Saint-Cloud
Thursday (declared)
ALJEZEERA in the G2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster
SOLO SAXOPHONE in a Maiden at Listowel
Friday (entries)
RED MIST in the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster (2 year old)
LA FIGLIA in the G3 Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster
MEKONG in a Novice Stakes at Sandown (2 year old)
Saturday (entries)
COUNT OCTAVE in the G1 St Leger at Doncaster
RED MIST in the G2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster
WESTERLAND in the G2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster
FRIMA in the G3 Lanwade Stud Dtakes at Gowran Park
WESTERLAND in a Nursery Handicap at Doncaster
HARBA in a Fillies Handicap at Musselburgh
STRAIGHT SHOOTER in the G3 Prince d'Orange at Maisons-Laffitte
STRAIGHT SHOOTER in the G3 La Coupe de Maisons-Lafitte at Maisons-Laffitte
Interesting read:
THE ASTONISHING RISE OF FRANKEL GOES ON
Taken from an article in Thoroughbred Racing Commentary by James Willoughby, 14th September 2017
Two more Group winners for FRANKEL (he had seven runners this week, and three thirds as well) have catapulted the all-time great racehorse to world #4 stallion - up three places this week. This is unprecedented and - in rankings terms - exciting.
To the maths behind the rankings, FRANKEL is just a collection of 74 Group race results. It does not know that this scant sample has been achieved by one of the best racehorses in history and that he is being patronised by some of the best mares around, increasing his probability of long-term success.
But the maths can still identify FRANKEL is something special because – at this stage of his career – there hasn’t been a stallion like him.
A sample of 74 runners is a small one, and TRC Global Rankings is mindful of the risk in these things. It seeks not to make a splash in, hurriedly jumping on one bandwagon or another, but to minimise errors in predicting the results of future Group and Graded races.
This is extremely important to note: if FRANKEL was placed any lower than #4, on the basis it is ‘too soon to tell’, reached either mathematically or otherwise, the probability of ranking one of his sons or daughters too low in a future Group race increases.
While it seems like 74 runners is not a lot, in terms of mitigating risk it is a lot more significant than 54 or 44 runners: we have reached the point where the maths is screaming "this is not a fluke".
To remind you what we have detailed before, FRANKEL's record of 19 Group wins from 74 global runners is represented by a strike rate of 25.7 percent. For comparison, Galileo's strike-rate is 17.1 percent and Dubawi's 17.6 percent.
Now, strike rate is nowhere near the most important consideration for TRC Global Rankings. The first and most important statistic for a stallion is simply the number of runners he has been represented by in Group and Graded races, for we are dealing here with the cream of the crop of all Thoroughbreds worldwide, and to even get a runner into a Group or Graded race is somewhat predictive of future success.
But let’s talk strike rate just for a second here, for it is a widely understood metric that isn’t that misleading applied in this spot. As the sample size of a stallion grows, his strike rate becomes less noisy and approaches a stable number. One of the things TRC Global Rankings is doing is answering the question: “How is a stallion doing in terms of his win rate at this stage of his career? And how much trust do we place in him continuing to do it?”
FRANKEL's strike rate is only the 49th best among the 500 we consider the best in the world right now. The best belongs to Twice Over: 1-1 or 100%.
Of the 48 sires with a higher strike-rate than Frankel:
A total of 34 have had ten runners or fewer
A total of nine have had 11-20 runners
The remaining few have had 23, 29, 29, 35 and 54. (The 54, impressively, is Japanese sire Screen Hero.)
None has had close to 74.
At his present strike-rate of 25.7 percent, it is 3,522,311,669 – 1 that FRANKEL doesn’t have a winner in his next 74 runners, which is more than 700,000 times less likely than Leicester were rated to win the Premier League title in 2016.
There is no need to go on, but we cannot resist a geeky exercise. What if we took 74 runners at random from the 1,651 that FRANKEL’s sire Galileo has had since 2011, and counted the number of Group winners in the sample? What percentage of a million repetitions of this exercise would have 19 winners or more, like FRANKEL?
THE ASTONISHING RISE OF FRANKEL GOES ON
Taken from an article in Thoroughbred Racing Commentary by James Willoughby, 14th September 2017
Two more Group winners for FRANKEL (he had seven runners this week, and three thirds as well) have catapulted the all-time great racehorse to world #4 stallion - up three places this week. This is unprecedented and - in rankings terms - exciting.
To the maths behind the rankings, FRANKEL is just a collection of 74 Group race results. It does not know that this scant sample has been achieved by one of the best racehorses in history and that he is being patronised by some of the best mares around, increasing his probability of long-term success.
But the maths can still identify FRANKEL is something special because – at this stage of his career – there hasn’t been a stallion like him.
A sample of 74 runners is a small one, and TRC Global Rankings is mindful of the risk in these things. It seeks not to make a splash in, hurriedly jumping on one bandwagon or another, but to minimise errors in predicting the results of future Group and Graded races.
This is extremely important to note: if FRANKEL was placed any lower than #4, on the basis it is ‘too soon to tell’, reached either mathematically or otherwise, the probability of ranking one of his sons or daughters too low in a future Group race increases.
While it seems like 74 runners is not a lot, in terms of mitigating risk it is a lot more significant than 54 or 44 runners: we have reached the point where the maths is screaming "this is not a fluke".
To remind you what we have detailed before, FRANKEL's record of 19 Group wins from 74 global runners is represented by a strike rate of 25.7 percent. For comparison, Galileo's strike-rate is 17.1 percent and Dubawi's 17.6 percent.
Now, strike rate is nowhere near the most important consideration for TRC Global Rankings. The first and most important statistic for a stallion is simply the number of runners he has been represented by in Group and Graded races, for we are dealing here with the cream of the crop of all Thoroughbreds worldwide, and to even get a runner into a Group or Graded race is somewhat predictive of future success.
But let’s talk strike rate just for a second here, for it is a widely understood metric that isn’t that misleading applied in this spot. As the sample size of a stallion grows, his strike rate becomes less noisy and approaches a stable number. One of the things TRC Global Rankings is doing is answering the question: “How is a stallion doing in terms of his win rate at this stage of his career? And how much trust do we place in him continuing to do it?”
FRANKEL's strike rate is only the 49th best among the 500 we consider the best in the world right now. The best belongs to Twice Over: 1-1 or 100%.
Of the 48 sires with a higher strike-rate than Frankel:
A total of 34 have had ten runners or fewer
A total of nine have had 11-20 runners
The remaining few have had 23, 29, 29, 35 and 54. (The 54, impressively, is Japanese sire Screen Hero.)
None has had close to 74.
At his present strike-rate of 25.7 percent, it is 3,522,311,669 – 1 that FRANKEL doesn’t have a winner in his next 74 runners, which is more than 700,000 times less likely than Leicester were rated to win the Premier League title in 2016.
There is no need to go on, but we cannot resist a geeky exercise. What if we took 74 runners at random from the 1,651 that FRANKEL’s sire Galileo has had since 2011, and counted the number of Group winners in the sample? What percentage of a million repetitions of this exercise would have 19 winners or more, like FRANKEL?
I don't know what mares were sent to other top stallions in their first couple of years but I do know Frankel has had top quality mares. Unless he does repeat matings, won't he have to start taking lesser mares before long which could well bring down his strike rate. He is certainly doing very well but it will be interesting to see how he compares with his dad when he has been going as long
His subsequent books have taken a bit of a hit on quality in comparison to his first book, and last year he lost several prospective matings due to an outbreak of EHV-abortion at a Newmarket boarding Stud which saw a number of his mates quarantined. Like you say, we'll have to look again in a few years time!
On that subject, Frankel has a new Stakes performer with MEROVEE running 2nd in the G3 Spring Stakes at Newcastle (Australia) a short time ago.
On that subject, Frankel has a new Stakes performer with MEROVEE running 2nd in the G3 Spring Stakes at Newcastle (Australia) a short time ago.
MEKONG just finished unplaced at Sandown
Upcoming entries:
Saturday (declared)
COUNT OCTAVE in the G1 St Leger at Doncaster
RED MIST in the G2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster
WESTERLAND in a Nursery Handicap at Doncaster
Monday (entries)
RISE EAGLE in a Maiden at Hanshin (Japan)
Tuesday (entries)
SPANISH POINT in a Maiden at Galway (2 year old)
GOLDRUSH in a Conditions Race at Galway
WEEKENDER in a Handicap at Yarmouth
Wednesday (entries)
FIRST ELEVEN in a Novice Stakes at Sandown (2 year old) - fascinating runner being a half-brother to KINGMAN
ELWAZIR in a Maiden at Yarmouth (2 year old) - 500,000gns yearling. Half-brother to SPEEDY BOARDING
AT YOUR SERVICE in a Maiden at Fairyhouse
Thursday (entries)
FIRST ELEVEN in a Novice Stakes at Yarmouth (2 year old)
HAZARFAN in a Novice Stakes at Yarmouth (2 year old) - 250,000gns yearling. Half-brother to G1 placed ROZ
VERACIOUS in a Fillies Novice Stakes at Yarmouth (2 year old) - half-sister to G2 winner/G1 placed MUTAKAYYEF; dam G1 placed
FRANKUUS in the Losted Doonside Cup at Ayr
SWISS STORM in a Handicap at Yarmouth
Upcoming entries:
Saturday (declared)
COUNT OCTAVE in the G1 St Leger at Doncaster
RED MIST in the G2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster
WESTERLAND in a Nursery Handicap at Doncaster
Monday (entries)
RISE EAGLE in a Maiden at Hanshin (Japan)
Tuesday (entries)
SPANISH POINT in a Maiden at Galway (2 year old)
GOLDRUSH in a Conditions Race at Galway
WEEKENDER in a Handicap at Yarmouth
Wednesday (entries)
FIRST ELEVEN in a Novice Stakes at Sandown (2 year old) - fascinating runner being a half-brother to KINGMAN
ELWAZIR in a Maiden at Yarmouth (2 year old) - 500,000gns yearling. Half-brother to SPEEDY BOARDING
AT YOUR SERVICE in a Maiden at Fairyhouse
Thursday (entries)
FIRST ELEVEN in a Novice Stakes at Yarmouth (2 year old)
HAZARFAN in a Novice Stakes at Yarmouth (2 year old) - 250,000gns yearling. Half-brother to G1 placed ROZ
VERACIOUS in a Fillies Novice Stakes at Yarmouth (2 year old) - half-sister to G2 winner/G1 placed MUTAKAYYEF; dam G1 placed
FRANKUUS in the Losted Doonside Cup at Ayr
SWISS STORM in a Handicap at Yarmouth
CRACKSMAN update from Racing UK:
"Plans for Cracksman are still up in the air following his wide-margin win in the Voltigeur at York and his impressive Prix Niel success at Chantilly last Sunday.
The three-year-old is entered for the Arc, but Gosden and owner Anthony Oppenheimer have expressed their reservations about tackling the race this year.
Gosden said: "I do not necessarily want to commit to the Arc. If it was at Longchamp, I would probably not hesitate, but Chantilly is a very different track and possibly his Arc is next year, but no decision will be made until later on.
"He's in the Champion Stakes as well and he's already a winner over a mile and a quarter.
"The key thing about Ascot is the draw. You don't want to be drawn wide as it cost Jack Hobbs (when third in 2015) being drawn wide as a three-year-old.
"There are a number of decisions to be made, but I'll be in no rush."
Coral cut Ulysses to 8-1 (from 10-1) in a market headed by Enable at Evens. Betfair and Paddy still quote Cracksman at 10-1, but Sky Bet make him 3-1 with a run."
"Plans for Cracksman are still up in the air following his wide-margin win in the Voltigeur at York and his impressive Prix Niel success at Chantilly last Sunday.
The three-year-old is entered for the Arc, but Gosden and owner Anthony Oppenheimer have expressed their reservations about tackling the race this year.
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Gosden said: "I do not necessarily want to commit to the Arc. If it was at Longchamp, I would probably not hesitate, but Chantilly is a very different track and possibly his Arc is next year, but no decision will be made until later on.
"He's in the Champion Stakes as well and he's already a winner over a mile and a quarter.
"The key thing about Ascot is the draw. You don't want to be drawn wide as it cost Jack Hobbs (when third in 2015) being drawn wide as a three-year-old.
"There are a number of decisions to be made, but I'll be in no rush."
Coral cut Ulysses to 8-1 (from 10-1) in a market headed by Enable at Evens. Betfair and Paddy still quote Cracksman at 10-1, but Sky Bet make him 3-1 with a run."