Danedream rating

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Ardent1965

Ardent1965

Well-Known Member
Sep 9, 2011
1,939
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Edinburgh
Danedream's triumph in Saturday's King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes Sponsored by Betfair has been a given a rating of 122 by the Senior British Horseracing Authority handicapper Phil Smith.

That is six pounds below her runaway Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe victory at Longchamp last October.

The performance of the runner-up Nathaniel, who was conceding the three-pound sex allowance to the star German-trained filly when going down by the narrowest of margins in the Ascot showpiece, has been rated 124.

That is two pounds less than his win in the race 12 months ago, but the same as he recorded in the Coral-Eclipse two weeks ago.

It is also the same as St Nicholas Abbey's win in the Investec Coronation Cup (he ran to 122 in finishing third on Saturday), Camelot's Investec Derby triumph and the now retired So You Think's Prince of Wales's Stakes victory.
 
It feels a little low to me, I think she is a seriously talented filly. Having said that, the horses she beat wouldn't really allow a higher rating so I guess it's fair enough.
 
I'm beginning to feel a little guilty banging on about these ratings, but I think they have to seen for what they are, a loose assessment of past performances. I think the variables are much too wide to be able to rightfully gain a true indication of just how good a horse is or can be. Nobody gave any credit to her German form leading up to her Arc win. Maybe the standard of racing there is below that of the UK and France, but that should not in any way be used as a valid reason for determining Danedream's natural ability.

I think the problem lies in the way lesser races are run. Quite often they get along at a farcical pace early on which allows for a better chance of an upset. When she meets the best in the very top races, where a genuine pace is assured, she can be seen for what she really is, a cracking racehorse. She's much better than a 122.
 
Have to agree, Cyc, this is a case where a rating is surely a bit too low. Haven't a clue how they do it, but they could have underestimated Danedream, who will be much sought-after in the paddocks in the near future. Her victories include the 2011 Arc, 2012 King George, the 2011 Grosser Preis Von Baden, plus other notable performances. The only real blots that I can see were a mediocre performance in this year's Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, and a 6th place at Longchamp in 2010 over 8f. in very soft ground. In all other races in which she did not actually win, she ran really well and was not far off the winner.

Danedream is a brilliant filly and a credit to all connected with her.
 
Jongleur said:
Have to agree, Cyc, this is a case where a rating is surely a bit too low. Haven't a clue how they do it, but they could have underestimated Danedream, who will be much sought-after in the paddocks in the near future. Her victories include the 2011 Arc, 2012 King George, the 2011 Grosser Preis Von Baden, plus other notable performances. The only real blots that I can see were a mediocre performance in this year's Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, and a 6th place at Longchamp in 2010 over 8f. in very soft ground. In all other races in which she did not actually win, she ran really well and was not far off the winner.

Danedream is a brilliant filly and a credit to all connected with her.
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............ and connections are not the "stay in your own backyard" types - they should be applauded for going after the big pots, wherever they may be run.
 
cyclonic111 said:
Hey Swanny, how's things mate? I don't know too much about German racing, but would she one of the best to come out of the country in a while?
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Yup, probably the best since Tiger Hill (although he never tasted success outside Germany, finishing 3rd to Sagamix in the 1998 Arc and 5th behind Montjeu in 1999).
 
Cyc, it's fair to say that German racing is at a level below that of the UK / Ireland / France but they do tend to send their best horses to the Arc - there is usually a German runner in the field, although Danedream was only the second German-trained horse to win the Arc (the first being Star Appeal in 1975).

I found a German website where the author listed his top 10 German-bred horses (some of the more famous ones like Tiger Hill and Danedream are not in here as they are not German-bred) - Acatanango is probably the best known for finishing 7th in Dancing Brave's Arc under Steve Cauthen. Here the list:

1. Acatenango
2. Lando
3. Monsun
4. Manduro
5. Shirocco
6. Silvano
7. Samum
8. Star Appeal
9. Borgia
10. Lomitas
 
cyclonic111 said:
Hey Swanny, how's things mate? I don't know too much about German racing, but would she one of the best to come out of the country in a while?
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Am fine thank you, Cyc, sorry took so long to reply but missus put me to work <yikes>. Oddy has answered your question in full and much more thoroughly than I could have! His top three were really good racehorses, and have certainly transferred their toughness (in particular) to their progeny. Star Appeal? Well, that was a right old shock when he won the Arc under Greville Starkey I believe? I will stay with the top three on Oddy's listing as the best to come out of Germany. <ok>
 
Certainly was a shock. Allez France (daughter of Sea Bird) and winner of the previous Arc, was the darling of French racing then and was beaten in that race, along with Dahlia. I remember being shocked at the winner that day, massive outsider.

PS yes it was Greville Starkey.
 
What is the most glaring thing to come out of the rating was it's comparrison to the Derby winning performance. To win that race Danedream had to beat multiple group 1 winning horses from all countries and all ages whilst Camelot had to beat nothing higher than a group 3 winning 3 year old and those behind were Main Sequance, Astrology and Bonfire. It is hard to asses horses due to the opposition but if thats what they are going to do they need be realistic. What i find with rating is that they have a problem the moment they have rated their first horse because everything has to be tied in to that first rating and it then becomes impossible.

What i was pleased to see most of all was that the King George looked like it should this year with a high quality turn out. I sadly had Nathaniel and missed out on quite a big payout by that nose as had it in a couple of decent doubles but that's how it goes, i am pleased the winner confirmed that the Arc was not a freak result as could have been suspected after her last run.
 
Yes, Bluesky9, you were very unlucky there. If ever a race was 'on the nod' it was that one. I was amazed she got up. I dunno, sometimes with these 'nose' results, I feel a 'dead-heat' would possibly be fairer? But with modern technology, they'll soon be giving 'half-a-nose'; that'll be even harder to take......<yikes>
 
Bluesky9 said:
What i find with rating is that they have a problem the moment they have rated their first horse because everything has to be tied in to that first rating and it then becomes impossible./QUOTE]

I know that isn't the case with Timeform. I've read how they rate horses but can't remember exactly. They give a provisional rating to a horse if there is no reliable form on which to base a rating. Thereafter that rating is adjusted up or down based on subsequent form of the other runners in that race until the horse runs again. However, with young horses, improving all the time it must get very difficult as so much of the true rating is retrospective. I believe with 2yos they also assume a certain amount of improvement each month.
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