Daily Thread Thursday 8th December

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OddDog

OddDog

Mild mannered janitor
Staff member
Jun 2, 2011
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Berlin, Germany
Racing on Thursday features 4 jumps cards at Huntingdon (featuring the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase), Ludlow, Taunton and Clonmel plus a flat card on the Polytrack at Kempton.

2.00 Huntingdon The Nightingale (NAP)

Had to take some of the "Burlington Bertie" BOG on Paul Nicholls charge for this as I think track, trip and going will be absolutely perfect for him. Made his seasonal reappearance in the Grade 1 JN Wine Chase over 3 miles on bottomless ground at Down Royal and was matching strides with Sizing Europe for the first 2m7f before his tank emptied slightly quicker than the 2 mile champ and Quito De La Roque swooped late to take the honours. That was a good month ago so hopefully he is over his exertions and, assuming this will be run at a decent lick, his accurate jumping and proven stamina can see him come home in front.
 
There was some 4/1 early doors and I might have been tempted at that price EW (seemed too good to be true) but surely Somersby can finally win an open Graded race?! You can cross him off for the King George if he doesn't win tomorrow. A good betting race if you fancy something, with 8 runners and Somersby taking up a fair percentage of the book.

It does look between the two on paper but I know that Longsdon rates Hidden Keel very highly. I am friends with his ex-assistant trainer and they think this one is the real deal. He has yet to really show it on the track though and has a mountain to climb on the figures but might be capable of the necessary improvement.
 
My god you guys are quick of the mark. Agree Nightengale has a super chance Oddy and hope he goes in for you. Well that will be the hex on it given my form of late:)
 
I think Somersby has been flattered by his proximity to Master Minded over 2m4f where MM's tank has started to empty and Somersby has been able to close late on. If you look at Somersby's defeat of 1833 and that one's subsequent run in the Hennessey I think that puts a very different complexion on his form. I'd struggle to rate him a 160 horse based on that. If you look at The Nightingale's form (forget Aintree, he needs to go right handed) I think it is very solid (with the exception of the King George, where he was found to have the heart problem afterwards). Even at Down Royal, where his tank clearly emptied, he wasn't beaten far and was matching strides with the Champion Chaser coming to the last.
 
Might be sounding a bit dumb- but how is The Nightingale and Tartak carrying top weight and is carrying 4lbs more than Somersby?!? Do you think this will have much of an disadvantage to Nightingale?
 
WF it's the penalty conditions for the race. Think it's because Tartak and The Nightingale have won class 1 graded races as "non-novices" whereas Somersby has only won a class 2. Something like that anyway.
 
You can see the race conditions if you pull up the racecard on the Racing Post website and tick the little box at the top to show conditions. Here they are:

£55,000 guaranteed For 4yo+ Weights 4yo.10st 7lb; 5yo+ 11st Penalties after September 30th, 2010, a winner of a Class 3 weight-for-age chase or a Class 2 handicap chase 4lb; of a Class 2 weight-for-age chase or a Class 1 handicap chase 6lb; of a Class 1 weight-for-age chase10lb (half penalties for wins achieved in novices' and beginners' Chases in Great Britain and Ireland) Allowances fillies and mares 7lb Entries 15 pay £ 275 Penalty value 1st £31,322.50 2nd £11,753.50 3rd £5,885.00 4th £2,931.50 5th £1,474.00 6th £737.00

Since Sept 30th Tartak has won the Peterborough last year (10lbs penalty as its a class 1 weight for age) and The Nightingale won the Ladbrokes.com chase at Down Royal (also a class 1 weight for age so 10lbs). Somersby has only won that Kempton race end of October which was a class 2 weight for age so only a 6lbs penalty <ok>
 
One for the day is SOMERSBY 7/4

He is an Arkle runner up and has run some storming races since in terrific company. 2 and a half miles can play to his strengths a bit more as he has shown plenty to suggest he needs more of a stamina test.

Been crying out for a campaign at 3m and I think will be seen to better effect at Kempton, but he has enough to topple The Nightingale over 2 and a half. He has consistently run Master Minded close over inadequate trips and still only 7 has the chance to improve up in trip.
 
2.40 Ludlow

Pigeon Island 11/1

Thank god I checked Ludlow's card tomorrow before going to bed as I would have missed this. I really fancy the chances of one of my old favourites in the shape of Pigeon Island who I think will have come on along for his reappearance (he's always needed it) last month. He's stepped up to 25.5f for the first time today and I really think this is a good move as he seems to have developed into an out an out stayer in my eyes, although that is certainly open to interpretation. He's had 2 attempts over 3m to date in his career, one coming at the track off a 4lb higher mark back in March he was a staying on 3rd and he was never really given a chance to win the race as it was merely a preparation run for the Cheltenham Festival.

Although he was entered into a couple of races over 3m, he didn't get in and had to settle for the 2m1f Grand Annual where he unsuccessfully defended his crown. It wasn't really a surprise to me as I think he needs proper soft ground over this trip to be effective. He won the Grand Annual in 2010 off a mark of 129, which he gets to race off today. LTO, although a well beaten 4th, I think there was a lot to like about his performance. Jockey Derek O'Connor probably left it too late to mount a challenge but I don't think he would have troubled the winner Swing Bill anyway. The form of that race has worked out pretty nicely with Swing Bill posting a very good 3rd in a similar event off a 7lb higher mark and Stewards House, who finished 7L back in 2nd that day, has subsequently come out and won in a Class 2 off the same mark in his only subsequent start.

Pigeon Island won off a mark of 141 in 2008 and although it is questionable if he is that good still, at 8 I don't think he is too far off it. He's one of the iffiest jumpers about but he virtually always seem to make it round so that isn't too much of a concern for me. The excellent Sam Twiston Davis takes the ride only for the 2nd time and although I think he is a fantastic pilot, he's going to have to be close to his very best tactically to produce Pigeon Island at the right time. He's the undoubted class in the race with a Grade 2 and Grade 3 victory to his name and I really really fancy him to run a huge race tomorrow at what seems a crazy price to me.
 
This Peterborough Chase looks the best for a while, and its an interesting heat. I have a problem in the race and that is that I would love Somersby to win, and win well. This means I am probably not going to look at the race objectively (or perhaps too objectively!)

Somersby is a good horse, but I think he needs softer ground than he has been racing on. I think he has a high knee action and looks like a real mudlark of a horse who would be better with a stamina test. Today its good-soft and I wonder if this is going to be the test that I think he needs. The one thing in his favour is that he goes around Huntingdon and he jumps very well.

The Nightingale hasn't really impressed me over fences but has won a better race than those won by Somersby (which shows what I know), and he carries a penalty in this race. He also carries a first time tongue tie, which perhaps suggests that he choked on his return and he should improve on that. I think he has really solid claims in this grade but I am worried about this tongue tie and also carrying a penalty.

Tartak is a warrior but is another who has to defy a penalty whilst having accessories on for the first time!! I worry about him too.

It leads me to think that Surfing is the one to be with, a five year old thrown into a big sort of race for Barneys Maestro Henderson. It needs to find about a stone on official marks but I do think that this horse could easily be good enough to win one of these earlyish season Graded Chases.

I will go with Surfing as my nap.
 
OOver 3 mile pigeon island will hopefully b rode a lot more prominently today as recently he's been kept at the back and stayed on like a train when never put in the race , just hope he's not being set up for a coup at the festival ,
Tartak won his race last year and with all the talk being about somersby think he's been forgotten/underestimated.
Orion express is cd winner and is in decent form winning 2 runs ago , think his last run was over slightly too far now dropped back to his optimum trip should run well.
Tastevin is very unexposed and with a decent conditional jock take 7lb off should have a better chance than most in the race. I've taken the early prices BOG as I wouldn't be surprised if at least a few of these came in for market support .10/1,11/1,10/1 and 11/1 respectfully .
Gl all having a bet today
 
Morning all. Have had a nice bit on the r/f in the 2pm race. Im inclinded to do The Nightingale e/w as a bet to nothing.....
 
Morning, people. A lot of races today but it is the most prestigious one, the Peterborough Chase, that has caught my eye:

Surfing (2.00 Huntingdon) - my regular readers will know that I have been a fan of this horse ever since his arrival on these shores from France (where he was a multiple winner, including at Listed level). After finishing a very nice 3rd to Ghizao and Captain Chris on his debut for Mr Henderson, last December, unfortunately Surfing then disappointed at Chepstow (due to lameness). He's always been very highly regarded though and the fact that Mr Henderson is prepared to run Surfing when he is so obviously 'wrong' at the weights speaks volumes to me. This is a very good race but Surfing could be a very good horse, methinks. 9/1 as a result is a more than fair price to my eye.

Good luck one and all.
 
If they get along at a moderate tempo in the Peterborough, it could play into the hands of a horse with a good turn of foot. But if they turn it into a true test, I can't see Somersby being beaten. The race seems to lack a bit of depth to me.
 
12.20 - Ludlow - Banyan Tree 4/1 (NAP)

Dropped in class main danger is probably Numen but he was pretty convincingly beaten by another Curtis horse (Platinum) so I'm taking that as a positive.

From stable tour "He is more of a spring/summer horse but he'll run on December 8 at Ludlow in a claimer where he would seem to have a very good chance."

Also with the below in a lucky 15

Mr Moonshine
Italian Master
Twist Pistol
 
I say myself and old Nassau tipping the same horse! Surely, only one thing can happen now...

Meanwhile, just seen that Newbury, with immediate effect, have scrapped their &#8216;Silver Ring&#8217;. Don&#8217;t know if that&#8217;s a wise move given the current economic malaise hanging over Broken Britain. There cheapest admittance ticket has now been more than doubled as a result!
 
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