Daily Thread Friday 9th Decemeber 2011

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woolcombe-folly007

woolcombe-folly007

Well-Known Member
May 9, 2011
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East Sussex
o tommorrow is the start of a great days racing- My selections for tomrrow are:

12.00 - Sam Winner. Is 12lbs better off than Solix, he will appreciate the return to this venue and a step up in trip, and also the fact that this is a left handed circuit will help the Paul Nicholls raider who was jumping to his left throughout before falling at the last as a tired horse on his fencing debut.

13.10 - That'lldoboy (NAP) Despite carrying top weight and 11 of the last 12 winners during the period carried weights of 11-5 or less. Nine winners were carrying a maximum weight of 11-3. He is still a class above the rest will complete his hat trick of wins and cant really see anything else winning!

13.45- Mon Parrain Was hugely disappointing the in the PP gold cup but can be excused since it was his 1st outing since April and would have done him the world of good the step up in trip should suit coz in my opinion has been crying out for 3m!

14.20 - Uncle Junior Now this is a very tough race, I cant see Grande reversing the placings unfortunately I think age has caught up and although the older Mullins has chosen Scotirish! But he does usually run over shorter trips sayig that he did show last time at Punchestown he wouldnt have a problem going over longer distance but I like Uncle Junior and think he will continue a good run.

15.30- Darlan A short price favourite (would have been my nap, if he wernt so short bit boring really) but he will win! was a very easy winner of a Haydock 'bumper' back in April, he scored nearly as impressively on his hurdling debut last month at Kempton, never coming off the bridle. We've yet to see the best of him and he should take all the beating here

GL to all having a flutter!
 
I noticed you have left the 12.35 out Woolcombe. I was told yesterday to have a bet on Paintball and take the price, would just like it to be a couple of points bigger to make it an each way bet really. It's a trappy race with many of them with the same profile, i will back it nevertheless but think it will have to be a win bet.
 
Was the source a reliable one as I keep going back to paintball in that race but I'm not sure if its because of the fact that I backed this horse at the festival and want to b proven right eventually , but don't want to throw good money after bad , is like to see paintball won but would really hate to miss out and yesterday I missed a few (oldrik and gauvain ) so don't wanna miss another I fancy but o do have my doubts in a competitive race with no doubt numerous improvers but if uve been given the wink as such from someone on the know then is hate to miss it as I said , as I threw a few quid away on him in the Fred winter as his profile looked perfect for said race
 
Looking at the race bluesky I also like j Scotts two runners especially ultravox as I like the claiming jock as much as I think he's worth his claim and really can't stand nick scohfield think he's one of the laziest jocks out their for the win or place so I tend to stear clear of his rides so more by elimination I like ultravox at 20s and have put him in my e/w Yankee but if uve had a good word bout paintball I'm all ears and will definitely have at least a saver on him coz I think he is a horse with a future but I've not caught him yet even tho I've backed him a few times , much like yahreb today ( won at 16s in a 5 runner race !!!!! Backed him last 3 times waiting for him to win , gave up on him and he's goes in ) results today have been frustrating but after a big bet on pigeon island e/w and a decent wager on punter pal j Ferguson in the bumper ( awesome strike rate for a newby) I finished up but had to lay out a fair bit and when looking at results on another day would of cleaned up as most of the winners were on my shortlist
 
Talking of claimers have heard that jonjo thinks a lot of Maurice lineman , he's had a winner already and rode very impressively and had a few places including a second behind a 1/8 shot he will get the best possible opportunities I'm told to improve his tally so keep an eye out for this new jock no rides tomorrow unfortunately
 
Big double for me today on Mon Parrain (NAP) and Darlan

Also looking forward to seeing Sprinter Sacre over fences at last - this one has been entered more often than a turkish whore in the last few weeks and finally gets his feet dirty today
 
In regards the Cross Country, Nina is not on Garde because JT can't do the weight on the other Enda horse, much the same as it has been in the past in this handicap. Nothing unusual about the switch.
 
NassauBoard said:
In regards the Cross Country, Nina is not on Garde because JT can't do the weight on the other Enda horse, much the same as it has been in the past in this handicap. Nothing unusual about the switch.
Click to expand...

BUT I am reliably informed she will be wearing her flowery knickers today - hint taken ;)
 
If anyone is out there, I would appreciate thoughts on the following:

In the 1.45 at Cheltenham, Mon Parrain runs off a handicap rating of 152. In his previous race he also ran off 152 and finished 7th, 32 lengths behind Great Endeavour. Handicapper has left him at the same mark.

In the same race, Knockara Beau runs off 143. This is his first chase since 1st Jan 2011, where he ran off a mark of 148 in a handicap and finished 7th, 30 lengths behind Tartak. Handicapper has dropped him 5 lbs.

Doesn't seem entirely consistent to me.
 
Oddy,

I think the handicapper has taken into account more than just their last runs when giving their ratings, Mon Parrain showed enough in his run to suggest that he isn't a forlorn hope off the mark and he did run really well the time before when he was given this higher mark. Knockara Beau was beaten on his handicap chase debut in the run before the one you note, and then he was very poor in the 1st Jan handicap, which suggested to the handicapper that they had him rated too highly and thus dropped him down the handicap. One looks relatively progressive whilst the other seemed regressive, hence the handicappers view.
 
Morning all, interesting reading about the 12.35 Chelt. Following the success and form of the Hobbs/Johnson combo recently I picked Tony Star as their best oppertunity today but your Paintball comments are swaying me especially with the jock having a 5lb claim. Anyone else looked at Tony Star?
 
Morning Lads,

Shame about Denman, despite his ages I think he'd still have proven to be better than a lot of the Gold Cup hopefuls who were smashed by Kauto and an unfit Long Run in the Betfair. Still, a well deserved rest for the Tank and it won't be long before his mate Kauto joins him


Boyles went 5/1 on Somersby for about 20 mins yesterday. I just missed out. Anyone know what they're doing today?
 
12.35 FIRST IN THE QUEUE.


Will be on after work to talk about Denman but for now I can only say what a legend.

"DENMAN, OFF ELEVEN STONE TWELVE, ONE OF THE GREAT PERFORMANCES IN JUMPS RACE HISTORY- Another demolition job from Denman!"

-Simon Holt
 
NassauBoard said:
Oddy,

I think the handicapper has taken into account more than just their last runs when giving their ratings, Mon Parrain showed enough in his run to suggest that he isn't a forlorn hope off the mark and he did run really well the time before when he was given this higher mark. Knockara Beau was beaten on his handicap chase debut in the run before the one you note, and then he was very poor in the 1st Jan handicap, which suggested to the handicapper that they had him rated too highly and thus dropped him down the handicap. One looks relatively progressive whilst the other seemed regressive, hence the handicappers view.
Click to expand...

Hope the handicapper is right and Mon Parrain comes home in splendid isolation.
 
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