Daily Thread 30th December

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TopClass

TopClass

Well-Known Member
Jun 22, 2011
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The 4/1 + offer race with Bet365:

3.30 Taunton: HOPEFUL START 5/1

Well backed last time, didn not travel fluently but still wasn't far away. I think with AP on board and a willingness for a battle, he will go very close if travelling into the race better this time around.



Busy day at work before a short break for New Year, so best wishes to all.
 
Morning Toppy. Congrats on the fireworks yesterday. Brilliant. Nice event at Haydock today called thre Last Fling Chase. Not too sure that the meeting will go ahead as there will be an inspection at 8am. If it goes ahead the 14:35 over 3miles 4 on a heavy track should be a real test of courage. With just the six runners, they should be strung out like Brown's cows at the finish. The Twiston-Davies trained Jaunty Journey is expected to just about take it out, but I was really impressed by the effort of Lockstown when he ran a hard finishing second in the 4 mile Scottish Borders National. He looks great value today.

Haydock. 14:35. Lockstown.
 
Dan - any word from BH on Dark Glacier? I was all over this one last time out but it was a poor run at Newcastle
 
Best bet of the day, and my nap, had got to be Douglas Julian in the last at Haydock. Won a handicap chase off 108 last time out, and this C&D winner reverts to his hurdles rating of 99 for this "fixed brush" race. 15/8 still available with Sky Bet but I can see him going odds-on.
 
Will ask and see, and i agree it was poor will also ask my inside man at Grant'ys ???????????????????????/


(its a lady really Phil Kinsella partner is the head girl there)
 
Lots I like today:

12.40 Taunton - Paul Nicholls Black Thunder split Tetlami and Knight Pass on his last run, and both of those went on to win at Kempton on Boxing Day. By far the best form in the race but around EVS is pretty skinny. Any Nicky Henderson novice hurdler warrants respect and Mister Dillon is looking for a four-timer and Jeremiah McGrath's claim negates the penalty. He is currently rated 118 which gives him something to find with Black Thunder.

1.45 Taunton - Nicky Henderson and Tony McCoy irresistable at the moment and Zama Zama can add to the haul. A bit keen on hurdles debut he won very cosily second time up for the champ and should be up to winning this today. The Hobbs horse looks the danger on paper - highly tried and soundly beaten on his 2 starts to date.

2.20 Taunton - Paul Nicholls has taken over training of former smart flat stayer Ted Spread and he was certainly not disgraced behind the very smart Broadbackbob and Cinders And Ashes on debut. He will certainly have come on for that and can get off the mark here. It will be no penalty kick however, with Battlecat (2nd to Prospect Wells), ALan King's Grumeti and David Pipe's War Singer (well supported on debut in a hot contest and ran well for a long time) sure to provide a stif challenge.

2.00 Haydock - Even off top weight Tamarinbleu has a favourites chance here and David Pipe's charge really deserves to get his head in front. He has won first time up in the past, and the testing conditions will not inconvenience him having won previously on heavy going and also having proven stamina beyond this trip. The rest of the field don't look to be in the same parish.

These 4 in a Canadian with the nap <ok>
 
Morning all - cracking Taunton card, looking forward to that.

Big question, has Menorah gone at the game ? Tips up in chase debut, back over hurdles and looked a shadow if his former self, now chasing again ? Do they know what to do with the horse ?
I'll be having a small lay of this one at around 1.3, sadly the only way this is a winning bet is if the horse makes mistakes and I wish no injury on horse or rider, despite it being a weak event I just think 1.3 is too short.

1.45 Zama Zama is the Nap of the day, hendersons 4yo should account for this field though watch out for Pipes Mare Beatie Green, she finished behind a useful Jonjo horse at Fontwell last season and could pose a threat.

2.20 Battlecat will get everyone;s attention because of his run behind Prospect Wells at Chepstow but Nichols gives Ted Spread, rated 105 on the level, another outing after his disappointing effort in a hot race at Ascot. Ted Spread is a very exciting recruitment to this sphere, he appears to have been moved from Tompkins yard to Nichols so perhaps connections had issues with how the horse was trained ?
Eitehr way you'd expect him to have been well schooled and could yet be a big player in the Supreme come March.

I can only imagine how bad the ground is at Haydock but it can never be bad enough for Whinstone Boy in the Veterans race at 2.00 - this horse cannot get his hoof in deep enough and if the 8 line up I think this one is outstanding each way value at 25s.

Good luck all
 
Oddy - bizzaar that we should be posting at exactly the same time, review the same 3 races, and tip 2 horses the same - if I didn't know better I'd say you were the wife, she has mindreading abilities.....
 
Grizzly said:
Oddy - bizzaar that we should be posting at exactly the same time, review the same 3 races, and tip 2 horses the same - if I didn't know better I'd say you were the wife, she has mindreading abilities.....
Click to expand...

Great minds think alike Grizzly <ok>

The removal of Ted Spread from the Tomkins yard was fairly acrimonius as far as I recall - I would expect him to put up a very bold show today <ok>
 
12.20 Tippering

This race is a funny one, its on heavy ground at Haydock. In fact it is on Haydock Heavy ground, and as such I am looking for a stoutly bred individual who has form on heavy ground and goes over the trip.

The horse I like is the favourite, Tippering, who is by Flemensfirth and he ticks all the boxes for me today. He ran a very good race last time out over the extended 3m1f trip at Catterick Bridge when he was battling for the win from a long way out from home. He ran Carmella Maria to a head, and that horse won well next time out when carrying 6lbs more of weight.

I think this field is weaker and with fewer runners he perhaps can relax into the race better than he did last time out and that could make all the difference.
 
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