Off Topic Coronavirus

[qprbeth]

Another thing from tonight's briefing that did not make sense.

Why were Pakistan and Bangladesh put on the red list before India?
Bangladesh had the South Africa but not the Brazil variant and Pakistan had neither when they were added to the red list on 9 April.

India had both, as well as a new variant, but was not added for another two weeks.

On 9 April:

• Pakistan had a seven-day average of 21 cases per million people
• Bangladesh had twice as many
• India had four times as many

 

[jeffranger]

I think the question Sb was asking was...
When the government put the second jab back from 6 weeks to 12 weeks, contrary to the manufacturer instructions...they produced info to show that it was actually better.
( Nothing since then has said otherwise)

Why now are they changing the instructions and bring the second jab forward a month.

Without information to support the change.

That was the question. As yet I cannot find an explanation, but will email a couple of people and maybe get back to you

FFS get over it, you don’t like the government full stop!! They don’t have to explain to you or anyone on their changes of getting the jab, just do as they ask, Christ some of you are so sad on this boring politics thread.

 

[qprbeth]

FFS get over it, you don’t like the government full stop!! They don’t have to explain to you or anyone on their changes of getting the jab, just do as they ask, Christ some of you are so sad on this boring politics thread.

Actually Jeff they do have to explain to me and a large number of other scientists, about the change. It is part of my brief to assess the diagnostic testing capabilities of the UK .

I would not blindly follow any government who told me to do something that I questioned the scientific background of . I would query it straight off.

I will ignore that outburst as just silly.

 

[jeffranger]

Bollacks

 

[qprbeth]

Bollacks

In what way Bollacks..please.

 

[Trammers]

I get my first jab tomorrow, AZ......

Only problem is that the HSE computers were the subject of a cyber attack overnight, a ransomware attack. Seems like the vaccine rollout data is not affected so hopefully should still be good to go, fingers crossed......

Oh and BTW didn't Bollacks play for the SW6 lot?

 

[rangercol]

I think the question Sb was asking was...
When the government put the second jab back from 6 weeks to 12 weeks, contrary to the manufacturer instructions...they produced info to show that it was actually better.
( Nothing since then has said otherwise)

Why now are they changing the instructions and bring the second jab forward a month.

Without information to support the change.

That was the question. As yet I cannot find an explanation, but will email a couple of people and maybe get back to you

It was explained in the briefing.
You and others said the government were wrong to lengthen the gap between jabs. You were wrong.
You and others dismissed covid as nothing to be too concerned about (as did I).
You and I were wrong.

Mistakes are made in these circumstances.

 

[bobmid]

Lovely break away. What have i missed? (Apart from Jeffs attempt at conversing) ?

 

[QPR999]

4 deaths from the Indian variant and cases doubled in a week. Hopefully the Vaccines will still protect us.

If not they'll have to invent a new vaccine. Perhaps they'll call it The Pun Jab.

 

[qprbeth]

It was explained in the briefing.
You and others said the government were wrong to lengthen the gap between jabs. You were wrong.
You and others dismissed covid as nothing to be too concerned about (as did I).
You and I were wrong.

Mistakes are made in these circumstances.

It was SB question not mine...Col.
He explained the real world evidence showing how good the 12 week gap was...and then he asked why they had changed it

I’m a bit confused Beth. Yesterday we had the excellent news that real world evidence has shown that a delayed (c12 week) second jab is not only effective for AZ vaccine but also for Pfizer - for both the delay seems to strengthen the overall protection from infection, hospitalisation and death. When the decision was made to delay jabs for population rather than individual protection reasons it was a non evidence based punt - seems like the gamble paid off again, good stuff. At the time the pseudo science bollocks used to justify the decision severely pissed me off when all they had to say was ‘we re taking a punt on this, fingers crossed’.

But today, with the Indian variant in play, there is talk of speeding up second vaccinations in worst affected areas. Any idea why? If the first jab gives the majority of the protection and a delayed booster entrenches this for longer, why speed it up? Surely better to blitz the entire eligible population with first jabs and impose a 2-3 week local lockdown while the vaccinations take effect?

Australia closed its borders to arrivals from India, including its own citizens wanting to return, weeks ago.

I suspect Stan may have alluded to bthe reason ( prevention of a lockdown ).

I have just got annoyed at Jeff comments that we should just do what the government asks us to without question. I am sure you, as a free thinking man would agree with my anger at that suggestion, Col.
You have been on here asking for information and I know in other places too.
That is the way sensible people do things...not just obey

FFS get over it, you don’t like the government full stop!! They don’t have to explain to you or anyone on their changes of getting the jab, just do as they ask, Christ some of you are so sad on this boring politics thread.

And yes, you are right Col...I have said many times on here I did not take Covid very seriously at first....but by March. I was scared s***less. We all were

 

[bobmid]

It was SB question not mine...Col.
He explained the real world evidence showing how good the 12 week gap was...and then he asked why they had changed it


I suspect Stan may have alluded to bthe reason ( prevention of a lockdown ).

I have just got annoyed at Jeff comments that we should just do what the government asks us to without question. I am sure you, as a free thinking man would agree with my anger at that suggestion, Col.
You have been on here asking for information and I know in other places too.
That is the way sensible people do things...not just obey





And yes, you are right Col...I have said many times on here I did not take Covid very seriously at first....but by March. I was scared s***less. We all were

I think that was Jeff trying to woo you Beth. He has a magical way with words!

 

[Stroller]

Tom Peck in the Independent. I so hope this isn't right, but experience suggests that it is.....


Boris Johnson hasn’t ‘levelled with you’ at all. He has, yet again, done the exact opposite

“I have to level with you,” said the prime minister and we all know what happened next because we’ve heard it so many times before. What happened is the prime minister didn’t level with us, because he never does.

Because he can’t. The worse the news, the thicker the sugar coating. It’s no accident. It’s an actual philosophy. Even now, all this time on, the part of Boris Johnson that thinks the coronavirus will be sent packing with a bit of optimism just keeps enduring.

He had to level with us that the Indian variant has arrived in the UK in a quite significant way, the speed at which it is replicating intimates it that it spreads 50 per cent faster than the Christmas-ruining Kent variant, which itself spread 50 per cent faster than the variants it effortlessly took over from.

He had to level with us that this new variant “could make it more difficult to move to step 4 in June”. By which he means the 21 June date at which life is meant to return to normal now seems highly unlikely.

But he had to add that it wasn’t “impossible” that everything will go ahead as planned. Nothing in life is impossible, of course, so why shouldn’t this be?

For a while, a while ago, it really did seem like Boris Johnson had broken his habit of overpromising and underdelivering. Of, whenever things had got worse, pretending they had got better. Partly because things actually have got better. But that old Boris variant has roared back with a vengeance.

It is, yet again, something of an unfortunate time to be blessed with a prime minister who cannot make a difficult decision. A difficult decision that might, for example, involve clamping down on international arrivals in a meaningful way.

It is close to a year since it became known that the rapid spread of Covid-19, last summer, was a consequence of returning British holidaymakers from Spain and Italy.

And yet, as Covid-19 soared in India, dozens and dozens of flights from there landed in the UK. Requirements to quarantine at home, and so on, were done in such a way as were impossible to enforce. And here we are, where we are.

The prime minister declined to take any action to halt step 3 of the gradual unlocking, which means that theatres are still scheduled to reopen on Monday, restaurants can serve indoors and overnight stays are allowed.

As he said these words, refusing to do anything other than carry on as normal, the scientific data that has brought us to this point was made public. It includes the following words: “If this variant were to have a 40-50 per cent transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7 [the Kent variant], sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the roadmap in England indicate that it is likely that progressing with step 3 alone (with no other local, regional, or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks).”

And the latest Sage papers do indeed indicate the India variant is highly likely to be much more transmissible. They also make clear that there are too few adults currently vaccinated to stop this variant from spreading, and also that even vaccinated adults might be more likely to spread this variant than other ones.

Which means, in short, that proceeding as planned on Monday is, probably, an incredibly bad idea. And, based on past performance, may not in fact happen.

It’s always worth remembering that it is only four months since Johnson reopened schools for a single day then closed them again. Why did he do that? Because he would rather the bad news got 10 times worse if it meant that he didn’t have to deliver it.

But, you know, this is what “levelling with you” really means – the complete opposite. A bit like levelling up, perhaps. It’s just something to say, some words to fill the rarefied air when you just can’t bring yourself to actually do it.

 

[bobmid]

FFS get over it, you don’t like the government full stop!! They don’t have to explain to you or anyone on their changes of getting the jab, just do as they ask, Christ some of you are so sad on this boring politics thread.

Imagine if the yanks had done as trump suggested in drinking bleach

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

Tom Peck in the Independent. I so hope this isn't right, but experience suggests that it is.....


Boris Johnson hasn’t ‘levelled with you’ at all. He has, yet again, done the exact opposite

“I have to level with you,” said the prime minister and we all know what happened next because we’ve heard it so many times before. What happened is the prime minister didn’t level with us, because he never does.

Because he can’t. The worse the news, the thicker the sugar coating. It’s no accident. It’s an actual philosophy. Even now, all this time on, the part of Boris Johnson that thinks the coronavirus will be sent packing with a bit of optimism just keeps enduring.

He had to level with us that the Indian variant has arrived in the UK in a quite significant way, the speed at which it is replicating intimates it that it spreads 50 per cent faster than the Christmas-ruining Kent variant, which itself spread 50 per cent faster than the variants it effortlessly took over from.

He had to level with us that this new variant “could make it more difficult to move to step 4 in June”. By which he means the 21 June date at which life is meant to return to normal now seems highly unlikely.

But he had to add that it wasn’t “impossible” that everything will go ahead as planned. Nothing in life is impossible, of course, so why shouldn’t this be?

For a while, a while ago, it really did seem like Boris Johnson had broken his habit of overpromising and underdelivering. Of, whenever things had got worse, pretending they had got better. Partly because things actually have got better. But that old Boris variant has roared back with a vengeance.

It is, yet again, something of an unfortunate time to be blessed with a prime minister who cannot make a difficult decision. A difficult decision that might, for example, involve clamping down on international arrivals in a meaningful way.

It is close to a year since it became known that the rapid spread of Covid-19, last summer, was a consequence of returning British holidaymakers from Spain and Italy.

And yet, as Covid-19 soared in India, dozens and dozens of flights from there landed in the UK. Requirements to quarantine at home, and so on, were done in such a way as were impossible to enforce. And here we are, where we are.

The prime minister declined to take any action to halt step 3 of the gradual unlocking, which means that theatres are still scheduled to reopen on Monday, restaurants can serve indoors and overnight stays are allowed.

As he said these words, refusing to do anything other than carry on as normal, the scientific data that has brought us to this point was made public. It includes the following words: “If this variant were to have a 40-50 per cent transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7 [the Kent variant], sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the roadmap in England indicate that it is likely that progressing with step 3 alone (with no other local, regional, or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks).”

And the latest Sage papers do indeed indicate the India variant is highly likely to be much more transmissible. They also make clear that there are too few adults currently vaccinated to stop this variant from spreading, and also that even vaccinated adults might be more likely to spread this variant than other ones.

Which means, in short, that proceeding as planned on Monday is, probably, an incredibly bad idea. And, based on past performance, may not in fact happen.

It’s always worth remembering that it is only four months since Johnson reopened schools for a single day then closed them again. Why did he do that? Because he would rather the bad news got 10 times worse if it meant that he didn’t have to deliver it.

But, you know, this is what “levelling with you” really means – the complete opposite. A bit like levelling up, perhaps. It’s just something to say, some words to fill the rarefied air when you just can’t bring yourself to actually do it.

It makes me laugh how anyone working for a paper called The Independent (when it clearly isn't) can ever complain about others misdescribing anything. It's such a biased report - he even has a go at levelling up though it's a policy in its infancy - that I don't place any store by it.

 

[Stroller]

It makes me laugh how anyone working for a paper called The Independent (when it clearly isn't) can ever complain about others misdescribing anything. It's such a biased report - he even has a go at levelling up though it's a policy in its infancy - that I don't place any store by it.

Well he's right about Johnson's past performance. We'll see if he's right about the current situation. I sincerely hope not.

 

[qprbeth]

So there appears to be tension ( or we call it discussion) between scientists,
between giving the vaccine quickly ( 2 jabs in 8 weeks) which will protect an increased number of elder people... (Stop them dying)
Versus.
A slower (2 jabs in 12 weeks) which will give more people, probably younger people, a degree of protection ( decreases transmission).

There are a number of facts that mitigate these decisions

I have also learnt that the clinical trials, with two jabs a month apart, was done completely pragmatically to get the data for the regulation boards as quickly as possible...

Secondly scientists are already coming to the idea that we will be getting a booster next winter ...and so the long protection may not be necessary...we will be getting a 3rd shot, before the effect of this one wears off..

So the decision that Boris has taken is to protect the elderly ..over the possibility of decreasing transmission.. ( which might also protect the elderly).


Scientists are expecting a surge in cases, but not much in hospitalisation or in deaths.
Lets hope so.

It is again of course a gamble, but again like the vaccine procurement plan, a sensible gamble.

So I hope that explains the plan Stan..
And Jeff this is the information that people want to hear before they "obey".

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

I don't think he is right. We know we're dealing with a worldwide pandemic and whatever you do, it's hard to keep strains out of the country, unless you're NZ which has a small number of entrants anyway, and can lock the doors.

If the India strain does spread, it's those that aren't vaccinated that are most at risk. Solution - get vaccinated.

 

[kiwiqpr]

I don't think he is right. We know we're dealing with a worldwide pandemic and whatever you do, it's hard to keep strains out of the country, unless you're NZ which has a small number of entrants anyway, and can lock the doors.

If the India strain does spread, it's those that aren't vaccinated that are most at risk. Solution - get vaccinated.

Even nz residents in India can't come back
They have to spend two weeks in a third country before having to spend two weeks in a quarantine hotel when they get here

 

[sb_73]

So there appears to be tension ( or we call it discussion) between scientists,
between giving the vaccine quickly ( 2 jabs in 8 weeks) which will protect an increased number of elder people... (Stop them dying)
Versus.
A slower (2 jabs in 12 weeks) which will give more people, probably younger people, a degree of protection ( decreases transmission).

There are a number of facts that mitigate these decisions

I have also learnt that the clinical trials, with two jabs a month apart, was done completely pragmatically to get the data for the regulation boards as quickly as possible...

Secondly scientists are already coming to the idea that we will be getting a booster next winter ...and so the long protection may not be necessary...we will be getting a 3rd shot, before the effect of this one wears off..

So the decision that Boris has taken is to protect the elderly ..over the possibility of decreasing transmission.. ( which might also protect the elderly).


Scientists are expecting a surge in cases, but not much in hospitalisation or in deaths.
Lets hope so.

It is again of course a gamble, but again like the vaccine procurement plan, a sensible gamble.

So I hope that explains the plan Stan..
And Jeff this is the information that people want to hear before they "obey".

But surely all the elderly, certainly all the over seventies and probably all the over 65s, have already had two jabs? I am due to have my second jab in 9 days time. Am I meant to rebook spontaneously or will I be getting a message? I don’t expect you to answer Beth.

They must be very scared of this variant. It seems the surge testing approach worked well with the clusters of South African and Brazilian variant cases - we heard testing was underway, and that was it. Interesting that they want to go further quicker with this one, probably driven by estimates of 10-20,000 hospital admissions a day (peak in January was 3,500), which frankly I don’t believe in the slightest, unless it implies that the vaccines won’t work against this variant or that under forty year olds will be especially vulnerable to it.

Anyway, not for me to question, I’m just here to obey, mindlessly, like a slave. Or a moron.

 

[kiwiqpr]

There has to be an end to the lockdown scenarios to varients at some point
What's the point of life if you have to spend it hiding in your house