Off Topic Coronavirus

[ELLERS]

My understanding was that the new variant has been known about for some days but that there was insufficient data available to make policy decisions prior to Friday

I thought Boris looked quite rattled yesterday

The government informed the WHO in September as confirmed today by WHO however you are correct as the spokesperson said they are dealing with many different strains. On Monday 2 health bodies confirmed alarming rises of cases in the south east. You are also correct as confirmed by Dr Hopkins that the final data was presented on Friday which knocked Boris. I bet he wish he hadnt goaded Starmer on Wednesday?

 

[rangercol]

Storford I am not an expert on this ...my field is diagnostic testing (and I said the lateral flow test was a load of poo and I was right.)

I have been thinking about this for a while....and these are my musings, a bit scientific but, there is a lot I do not get.

There are now 27 strains (now what they mean are 27 different variants of the virus that are different enough to say they are different strains...no I do not know what is meant by "significantly different enough")

One of them is now called a "new strain"...no I do not know what the others are called.

It is obviously picked up by the testing regime (obviously not the lateral flow test, as that is just a little man who flicks a coin...and a load of @@@@). If what we are told yesterday is true we can say that as we know it is contibuting to the upsurge in numbers. Now to me this is good, as it probably means it is similar enough to be controlled by the vaccine....THATS THE GOOD BIT.

But if it is picked up by testing system ...how do we know that it is on the upswing...and it is not just the old strain that is on the up.. We don't unless we sequence the areas of virus that have changed and compare. That is a fairly big thing to do, and cannot be done for the population, it is done in dedicated labs on small sample numbers. So we do not know.

Matt Hancock yesterday was talking through his hat (again). I am not saying that he will be shown to be definately wrong....but in my opinion, they were using the "new strain" as a convenient excuse to make a U-turn. The reason they had to do this was that there was a big upsurge in cases, because the measures they took in November were insufficient, and Dedcember would be worse.

The new variant, which as yet has not been proved to be any worse than the "old" one, has not been proved to be the reason for the upsurge either.
London and the SE should have gone into Tier 3 when Liverpool did...then old, new and the other 25 viral cousins would not have spread.

By the way...I am greatly pissed off too, we have the bestest family Christmases...and with a 2 year old it would have been magical.

So all the medics etc are wrong about this latest variant spreading 70% faster?
All the concerns about health services across the world being overwhelmed because of the speed of infection with this new variant are unfounded?

 

[ELLERS]

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[qprbeth]

So all the medics etc are wrong about this latest variant spreading 70% faster?
All the concerns about health services across the world being overwhelmed because of the speed of infection with this new variant are unfounded?

Scientifically, I really do not think they can tell Col. The virus is spreading quicker than they thought it would, when they allowed us out of lockdown...yes that is right. But unless they sequence" the genome" of a large number of the virus taken from people newly infected, they cannot really tell...and they are not screening large numbers they are just taking samples.
(Thank you Col you have made me go and read up about this)

So the genome is 30,000 base pairs long. The virus called"new" has 23 changes (23/30,000) so these changes are difficult to identify (and impossible by the testing regiime we are using) and very difficult to analyse outside the lab...So the full information on how far it has spread is still not known

There are two varients of this "new" virus...one with a double deletion (no I cannot see how this will be dangerous....as it changes the readout; the sequence is read out in 3s) and a second single mutation called N501Y, which has shown a small increase binding ability to ACE protein in our body, this might increas infection rate...if nothing else is involved.
They are much more worried about the increase in infection rate of any virus strain. It doesnot matter what strain you get, if susceptible you could get very ill and die.

Here is a useful link. To what some of the most outstanding virologists in the country are saying

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-new-variant-of-sars-cov-2/

They are worried, but not directly about the new version...So I will again say as I did before;-The new strain arguement was a handle into explaining why we had to go into lockdown yesterday. It was another scare tactic, to scare us into obeying this time.
And Col....that is not an overt criticism...we need something to scare us into obeying... The combination of slow action and ineptitude by the government and "tiredness" in the lockdown process and restlessness by the public have caused this. We are still all in this together....and somne are more in it than others

 

[rangercol]

Scientifically, I really do not think they can tell Col. The virus is spreading quicker than they thought it would, when they allowed us out of lockdown...yes that is right. But unless they sequence" the genome" of a large number of the virus taken from people newly infected.
(Thank you Col you have made me go and read up about this)

So the genome is 30,000 base pairs long. The virus called"new" has 23 changes (23/30,000) so these changes are difficult to identify (and impossible by the testing regiime we are using) and very difficult to analyse outside the lab...So the full information on how far it has spread is still not known

There are two varients of this "new" virus...one with a double deletion (no I cannot see how this will be dangerous....as it changes the readout; the sequence is read out in 3s) and a second single mutation called N501Y, which has shown a small increase binding ability to ACE protein in our body, this might increas infection rate...if nothing else is involved.
They are much more worried about the increase in infection rate of any virus strain. It doesnot matter what strain you get, if susceptible you could get very ill and die.

Here is a useful link

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-new-variant-of-sars-cov-2/

So I will again say as I did before;-The new strain arguement was a handle into explaining why we had to go into lockdown yesterday. It was another scare tactic, to scare us into obeying this time.
And Col....that is not an overt criticism...we need something to scare us into obeying... The combination of slow action and ineptitude by the government and "tiredness" in the lockdown process and restlessness by the public have caused this. We are still all in this together....and somne are more in it than others

But are you dismissing the fears about 70% faster spread or not?
Sorry to ask again, but I can't tell from your reply (probably me not getting it admittedly).

Other countries are all reacting the same way, so are they all just using the new variant as an excuse too?

 

[Steelmonkey]

There are now 27 strains (now what they mean are 27 different variants of the virus that are different enough to say they are different strains...no I do not know what is meant by "significantly different enough")

One of them is now called a "new strain"...no I do not know what the others are called.

From BBC website...

"There are two notable sets of mutation - and I apologise for their hideous names.

Both are found in the crucial spike protein, which is the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells in order to hijack them.

The mutation N501 (I did warn you) alters the most important part of the spike, known as the "receptor-binding domain".

This is where the spike makes first contact with the surface of our body's cells. Any changes that make it easier for the virus to get inside are likely to give it an edge.

"It looks and smells like an important adaptation," said Prof Loman.

The other mutation - a H69/V70 deletion - has emerged several times before, including famously in infected mink.

The concern was that antibodies from the blood of survivors was less effective at attacking that variant of virus.

Again, it is going to take more laboratory studies to really understand what is going on.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55312505

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

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I’m not going to judge people, many of whom will be living in small flats, often with random people they don’t really know, for not cancelling plans to go home for a Christmas they were repeatedly assured was fine to go home for. Not in the same league as swarms of people descending on shopping centres, IMO.

 

[SARQPR]

I’m not going to judge people, many of whom will be living in small flats, often with random people they don’t really know, for not cancelling plans to go home for a Christmas they were repeatedly assured was fine to go home for. Not in the same league as swarms of people descending on shopping centres, IMO.

Is the issue though that most people shop relatively locally whereas travel at Xmas tends to scatter people far and wide, frequently into areas that have relatively low infection rates?

I think a lot of people are being very selfish

Surely the Opposition should be calling this out given that they have been so keen on lock downs?

 

[Steelmonkey]

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That's got to be a fake picture - not a mask in sight and I'm sure with all those people gathered there'd be a fair few wearing them.....unless London is truly filled with morons?

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

Is the issue though that most people shop relatively locally whereas travel at Xmas tends to scatter people far and wide, frequently into areas that have relatively low infection rates?

I think a lot of people are being very selfish

Surely the Opposition should be calling this out given that they have been so keen on lock downs?

Doubt many people are schlepping into London for shopping at the moment. It’ll be northerners living down here heading home.

 

[SARQPR]

Doubt many people are schlepping into London for shopping at the moment. It’ll be northerners living down here heading home.

That's exactly my point - so the risk is that rates start rising again in those areas that had seen falling rates, leading to further restrictions in those areas

So how do all the Northern mayors who were complaining about the lack of restrictions in the south feel now?

I genuinely don't get it

 

[qprbeth]

From BBC website...

"There are two notable sets of mutation - and I apologise for their hideous names.

Both are found in the crucial spike protein, which is the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells in order to hijack them.

The mutation N501 (I did warn you) alters the most important part of the spike, known as the "receptor-binding domain".

This is where the spike makes first contact with the surface of our body's cells. Any changes that make it easier for the virus to get inside are likely to give it an edge.

"It looks and smells like an important adaptation," said Prof Loman.

The other mutation - a H69/V70 deletion - has emerged several times before, including famously in infected mink.

The concern was that antibodies from the blood of survivors was less effective at attacking that variant of virus.

Again, it is going to take more laboratory studies to really understand what is going on.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55312505

Start with the less important one first the deletion mutation..It has appear several times before. The reason why all the mink in Scandanavia were slaughtered. No one knows if it can make the jump from mink to humans well (I think there are a handful of people, mainly mink farm workers who have), what will happen when it gets there...probably the same as the Standard virus, but if a second mutation happens or a third...who knows...So get rid of it...and we can kill all the mink...we can't kill people from Kent!

Re the N501Y mutation this changes changes one amino acid ( from a straight chain asparagine (N) to a ring structure tyrosine (Y) at position 501 (in the spike protein), so it is a change in the protein structure). This " in the lab" increases the binding of the virus to the ACE protein in your lungs by 70%. It does not increase your chance of infection per se. If you get sneezed upon by the a person with the virus.. you are probably going to get infected, but this mutation makes the virus hang on a bit tighter.
So there will be a few people who get a viral sneeze and the virus will be "shrugged off". (?young people with good immune systems??), who this mutation will make it harder to shrug off...but they may still do it.. Others may not. But there is not going to be an increase of 70% of people overnight getting it
But the point I am making

If you are not in a position to get a sneeze from a virus laden person...you won't get infected, regardless if it is new, old or called Fred.
If you mass around and get close to lots of people you will get infected iif one of them has the virus (whether it is new, old or fred

 

[ELLERS]

Is the issue though that most people shop relatively locally whereas travel at Xmas tends to scatter people far and wide, frequently into areas that have relatively low infection rates?

I think a lot of people are being very selfish

Surely the Opposition should be calling this out given that they have been so keen on lock downs?

I was sceptical at first and like Watford said about judging people but then I saw the interview of some of those travellers that were just getting out of London because of the restrictions.

 

[ELLERS]

That's exactly my point - so the risk is that rates start rising again in those areas that had seen falling rates, leading to further restrictions in those areas

So how do all the Northern mayors who were complaining about the lack of restrictions in the south feel now?

I genuinely don't get it

Spot on after all the work done up north there thanks is receiving a new strain by selfish muppets.

 

[Sooperhoop]

Have you read about Project Capstone? Government disaster planning exercise, covering COVID, floods, Brexit all happening in the worst possible ways. Thankfully the exercise showed that the government would handle it brilliantly, which has certainly put my mind at rest.

It is actually Project Keystone...

 

[SARQPR]

It is actually Project Keystone...

The issue with all these exercises (and I've been through a fair few disaster recovery roleplays at work) is that they are just that - everyone knows they aren't real and decisions aren't life or death

Plus of course, throw in the public, many of whom are selfish and couldn't care less about others

 

[Sooperhoop]

The issue with all these exercises (and I've been through a fair few disaster recovery roleplays at work) is that they are just that - everyone knows they aren't real and decisions aren't life or death

Plus of course, throw in the public, many of whom are selfish and couldn't care less about others

True, but then again there was an 'audit' of the NHS in the scenario of a pandemic which highlighted the vulnerability regarding PPE, beds and other supplies, it was ignored...

 

[rangercol]

Start with the less important one first the deletion mutation..It has appear several times before. The reason why all the mink in Scandanavia were slaughtered. No one knows if it can make the jump from mink to humans well (I think there are a handful of people, mainly mink farm workers who have), what will happen when it gets there...probably the same as the Standard virus, but if a second mutation happens or a third...who knows...So get rid of it...and we can kill all the mink...we can't kill people from Kent!

Re the N501Y mutation this changes changes one amino acid ( from a straight chain asparagine (N) to a ring structure tyrosine (Y) at position 501 (in the spike protein), so it is a change in the protein structure). This " in the lab" increases the binding of the virus to the ACE protein in your lungs by 70%. It does not increase your chance of infection per se. If you get sneezed upon by the a person with the virus.. you are probably going to get infected, but this mutation makes the virus hang on a bit tighter.
So there will be a few people who get a viral sneeze and the virus will be "shrugged off". (?young people with good immune systems??), who this mutation will make it harder to shrug off...but they may still do it.. Others may not. But there is not going to be an increase of 70% of people overnight getting it
But the point I am making

If you are not in a position to get a sneeze from a virus laden person...you won't get infected, regardless if it is new, old or called Fred.
If you mass around and get close to lots of people you will get infected iif one of them has the virus (whether it is new, old or fred

So you can't catch the virus from surfaces anymore?
All the cleaning of surfaces etc has been futile?

 

[SARQPR]

True, but then again there was an 'audit' of the NHS in the scenario of a pandemic which highlighted the vulnerability regarding PPE, beds and other supplies, it was ignored...

I doubt that it was ignored....more that the inevitably massive cost was set against what would've been seen as a remote possibility

Easy to retrospectively say this was the wrong decision

 

[kiwiqpr]

Tomorrow’s the day, Ellers!

What are you going to post something interesting?

Shortest day???