Off Topic Coronavirus

[qprbeth]

I believe it is over too.

The PCR is simply flawed to a ridiculous degree. The 1% false positive is vast when used on this industrial scale.

The chance of cross immunity from other corona viruses is very high among a significant proportion of the population.

Death rates are normal compared to the 5 year average, and have been since June, with the exception of those extra heart and cancer deaths, having been deprived access to the healthcare that might have saved them.

Respiratory deaths are lower than last year and have been since the summer.

Numbers of deaths on the ONS website are duplicated to make respiratory deaths and deaths where covid is mentioned seem like different people.

A little scientific clarification on this
The PCR is simply flawed to a ridiculous degree. The PCR IS NOT FLAWED. It is the inrepretation that is flawed. The PCR is just like a machine if you set it up with set criteria, it gives you the results. Rather than give the test system out to people on minimum wage. Perhaps the government should have used the inhouse system that is available in nearly every hospital

The 1% false positive is vast when used on this industrial scale.
I stated this months ago. It told you how it can be corrected, by repeating the tests...and 1% false positivesin a million tests is 10,000 false positives, but repeat those "positives" a second time and a gain a false positive 1% of 10,000 is 100 false positives. That what we did in the diagnostic lab I was in, it is standard practice!!!
By the way I know for a fact...this was suggested to the Trace & Trace system,, and was turned down as too expensive

The chance of cross immunity from other corona viruses is very high among a significant proportion of the population. The PCR test is specific for Covid19 when used correctly!
That has been tested by the scientists who set it up.
Unfortunately the test labs are to run routine diagnostic tests. In a standard diagnostic assay, it is written into the test sequence and these sort of check test are run every day....but not in the megalabs.
Death rates are normal compared to the 5 year average, and have been since June, with the exception of those extra heart and cancer deaths, having been deprived access to the healthcare that might have saved them.Not any more ...for the last month they have been above average again

Respiratory deaths are lower than last year and have been since the summer. Is that because so many susceptible people have died in the first wave?

Numbers of deaths on the ONS website are duplicated to make respiratory deaths and deaths where covid is mentioned seem like different people. How do you know that Woody?


When we come out of this the average death rate will defately below normal, because so many have died

 

[qprbeth]

Respiratory deaths are lower than last year and have been since the summer.

Numbers of deaths on the ONS website are duplicated to make respiratory deaths and deaths where covid is mentioned seem like different people.

Been to ONS website.
Deaths that inolve Influenza/Pneumonia/Covid19 have been above the rolling 5 year average since 2nd week of October
The death from any cause has been above the rolling 5 year average since the 1st of October....after falling below the level during the summer. As I explained Covid has been taking people in ill health (who may have died in the next few weeks/months that is certain) and so those deaths will be missing from later in the year when they would have died of their underlying illness.

That is the science

 

[qprbeth]

In the above two post I have tried to explain the science here....and it is more to defend the scientists than to defend the action of what is happening

SAGE is there to tell the government what could happen if various scenarios are allowed to play out.
If we did nothing...if we did a bit...if we completely lockdown. The government decides what to do.

One of the first thing in January the government was told to do was close the borders....they never have completely
They were told to get a proper track and trace system in February, using the local systems, which they were told to expand. However by April they had given up on that. In summer Dido Harding was brought in to set up a privately run firm, which has failed...and a lot of track and tracing is being done now by the local systems...which have not been upgraded...even though they could have been starting in Feb/March.

They have been told how to run the test system...but they have chosen to out source it. If anyone saw the panorama program last Monday, they will have seen minimum wage kids unpacking the samples. I trained for years to correctly unpack samples; log them in and avoid contamination. Our lab would have been closed absolutely totally if we had done one of the many many things they did wrong.

The government have no idea what they are doing on the science....so I can believe that they have no idea what they are doing on the economics side either.

No I don't trust the figures out there but I am somewhat worried about the 300-500 deaths a day reported. I do not think they are fake.
So I am taking care of myself and my own. I am not taking risks, but I can do that I am retired and cocooned. I fully understand the severe worry of people who are trying to get by for the families, for their livehoods


But don't blame the messenger (scientist) they are not making the decisions. Blame the peiople who are making all these vital decisions ...about borders, and testing regimes, and companies who run them

End of rant...

 

[sb_73]

In the above two post I have tried to explain the science here....and it is more to defend the scientists than to defend the action of what is happening

SAGE is there to tell the government what could happen if various scenarios are allowed to play out.
If we did nothing...if we did a bit...if we completely lockdown. The government decides what to do.

One of the first thing in January the government was told to do was close the borders....they never have completely
They were told to get a proper track and trace system in February, using the local systems, which they were told to expand. However by April they had given up on that. In summer Dido Harding was brought in to set up a privately run firm, which has failed...and a lot of track and tracing is being done now by the local systems...which have not been upgraded...even though they could have been starting in Feb/March.

They have been told how to run the test system...but they have chosen to out source it. If anyone saw the panorama program last Monday, they will have seen minimum wage kids unpacking the samples. I trained for years to correctly unpack samples; log them in and avoid contamination. Our lab would have been closed absolutely totally if we had done one of the many many things they did wrong.

The government have no idea what they are doing on the science....so I can believe that they have no idea what they are doing on the economics side either.

No I don't trust the figures out there but I am somewhat worried about the 300-500 deaths a day reported. I do not think they are fake.
So I am taking care of myself and my own. I am not taking risks, but I can do that I am retired and cocooned. I fully understand the severe worry of people who are trying to get by for the families, for their livehoods


But don't blame the messenger (scientist) they are not making the decisions. Blame the peiople who are making all these vital decisions ...about borders, and testing regimes, and companies who run them

End of rant...

They are already advertising for staff for the new mega lab to be built (or housed in a couple of warehouses, I think) a mile or so from me. Salaries are ‘competitive’, but even junior lab technicians need a masters for some reason. I wonder where all these highly skilled well trained people will come from. If they can’t get enough they can always rely on ‘Lab Support Workers’ on £8.80 - £11 an hour.

 

[kiwiqpr]

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Emma Garrett

@EmmaSGarrett

My dad died today in a nursing home.

He was tested for Covid 3 times over the last 3 weeks.

He was negative every time yet we are told Covid will be on his death certificate as the primary cause.

Can anybody explain this to me?

 

[Woodyhoopleson]

A little scientific clarification on this
The PCR is simply flawed to a ridiculous degree. The PCR IS NOT FLAWED. It is the inrepretation that is flawed. The PCR is just like a machine if you set it up with set criteria, it gives you the results. Rather than give the test system out to people on minimum wage. Perhaps the government should have used the inhouse system that is available in nearly every hospital

The 1% false positive is vast when used on this industrial scale.
I stated this months ago. It told you how it can be corrected, by repeating the tests...and 1% false positivesin a million tests is 10,000 false positives, but repeat those "positives" a second time and a gain a false positive 1% of 10,000 is 100 false positives. That what we did in the diagnostic lab I was in, it is standard practice!!!
By the way I know for a fact...this was suggested to the Trace & Trace system,, and was turned down as too expensive

The chance of cross immunity from other corona viruses is very high among a significant proportion of the population. The PCR test is specific for Covid19 when used correctly!
That has been tested by the scientists who set it up.
Unfortunately the test labs are to run routine diagnostic tests. In a standard diagnostic assay, it is written into the test sequence and these sort of check test are run every day....but not in the megalabs.
Death rates are normal compared to the 5 year average, and have been since June, with the exception of those extra heart and cancer deaths, having been deprived access to the healthcare that might have saved them.Not any more ...for the last month they have been above average again

Respiratory deaths are lower than last year and have been since the summer. Is that because so many susceptible people have died in the first wave?

Numbers of deaths on the ONS website are duplicated to make respiratory deaths and deaths where covid is mentioned seem like different people. How do you know that Woody?


When we come out of this the average death rate will defately below normal, because so many have died

I’m not suggesting my understanding is anywhere near yours of the scientific process, I’m interpreting the information available to me.

By ‘flawed’, I’m referring to the following, which is what I’ve heard from Yeadon, Heneghan etc:

1% false positive

Test 1000 tracked and traced

You will receive 10 false positives, which is already higher than the 1 in 1000 rate of infection present in society, as stated by the ONS.

I understand it would be a perfectly good tool to use on a hospitalised patient to determine the type of virus, but when used on such a large scale, it is unable to distinguish between active viral RNA and dead RNA of a virus already defeated by the body and being expelled over weeks or even months. So a positive result could be a genuinely ill, infectious person or someone who has had it, recovered and is probably now immune. The exact opposite of a case.

Heneghan recently indicated that the number of cycles of amplification being carried out on samples was too high and would lead to further false positives, whereas if the cycles were kept within the Max 30-35 range, you would not only get a clearer picture of the scale of the problem, but you would also understand the viral load of the sample.

How many of the tests carried out in public are carried out for a second time to vastly reduce the 1% FP possibility? Is that to test the same sample twice or to test 2 separate samples from the same person?

Excess deaths. Clearly, there was a large jump in recorded deaths between March and May, but from mid June, rates are similar, if not lower than the 5 year average. The 1000 or so jump each week from mid October was described by Mike Yeadon as non respiratory.

The duplication issue. This year’s ONS weekly death figures have an additional line and this note...”Note: Deaths could possibly be counted in both causes presented. If a death had an underlying respiratory cause and a mention of COVID-19 then it would appear in both counts”

Based on Yeadon’s claim that the jump in October’s mortality was non respiratory, but instead the result of cancer and heart disease patients not recovering treatment, I looked at this year’s respiratory deaths vs 2019 and if you forget this extra ‘covid’ line of data, since June, respiratory deaths this year are lower, every week. You may be right, this may be because so many of the vulnerable died in the spring, but equally, did so many die in the spring because there was such a light flu season last year?

So I phoned the ONS to understand this extra ‘covid’ data line, especially given the above note implies that some deaths will appear in more than one line. The guy at ONS confirmed that to be the case, saying that a covid death is recorded in the respiratory death line, and in the new ‘covid mention’ line. He said he’d send me more detailed info, but I’ve not received it.

What do you think about the large scale use of the PCR and the idea of mass testing? Yeadon seems to be passionately against it.

 

[Steelmonkey]

They are already advertising for staff for the new mega lab to be built (or housed in a couple of warehouses, I think) a mile or so from me. Salaries are ‘competitive’, but even junior lab technicians need a masters for some reason. I wonder where all these highly skilled well trained people will come from. If they can’t get enough they can always rely on ‘Lab Support Workers’ on £8.80 - £11 an hour.

This popped up on LinkedIn...

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[qprbeth]

Eating dinner and on line quiz tonight...so will have to answer all your questions later.

But of the top of my head...please check.
mRNA has a lifetime of 1-3 minutes.it is not really possible for RNA, DNA and dead DNA will get confused....it is very quickly broken down..and the cycles of the PCR process does not amplify very low levels...OF APPLIED CORRECTLY

I explained already how easy it is to reduce the 1% false positive numbers from 10,000/1,000,0000 to 100/1,000,00 by just repeating the test. Which was poo-pooed by the government as too expensive.

Please check the ONS site and you will see my figures are correct.


More tomorrow

 

[qprbeth]

Oh and the large scale testing is done on a laminar flow device...which for some reason I have not been allowed anywhere near...

 

[Woodyhoopleson]

Eating dinner and on line quiz tonight...so will have to answer all your questions later.

But of the top of my head...please check.
mRNA has a lifetime of 1-3 minutes.it is not really possible for RNA, DNA and dead DNA will get confused....it is very quickly broken down..and the cycles of the PCR process does not amplify very low levels...OF APPLIED CORRECTLY

I explained already how easy it is to reduce the 1% false positive numbers from 10,000/1,000,0000 to 100/1,000,00 by just repeating the test. Which was poo-pooed by the government as too expensive.

Please check the ONS site and you will see my figures are correct.


More tomorrow

No pressure to respond.

I heard a PCR expert on bbc radio London, in answer to a question I raised during a phone in, tell us that the PCR cannot distinguish between dead and living vial RNA. Many others are saying the same. Not calling you out, just trying to understand.

It was Heneghan who said that the over amplification of samples will allow you to see almost anything you want.

Re testing twice, makes perfect sense and surely would be good scientific practice, but as far as I know, it’s not happening, so the false positives remain.

So, if the above is correct, I should qualify my earlier statement and say that perhaps the pcr isn’t a flawed test, but is being used inappropriately.

 

[qprbeth]

No woody you are right it can't tell between live ( by which you mean in a virus) and dead D/RNA...because there is no such thing as live or dead D/RNA.

But the point I was making that RNA breaks down very quickly...so the correct sequence that is recognised by the PCR template...is unlikely ( bit not impossible) to hang around for any great length of time.
So if it is detected is more probably alive rather than dead.


But the point about the cycling is a million percent correct...and it is the point I was making too with out going into detail.

PCR takes a sequence and amplifies it ..If it amplifies beyond the threshold for positivity quickly (20 cycles) you are likely to be positive....but it probable that if you amplify anyone 100-200 they too would be positive ( falsely).
So the person who sets up the test and the person who does the test have to know what they are doing...and they have to understand and interprete the test correctly too.

And there must be no contamination.

So don't do it on the cheap with amateurs.

On that point we are all singing from the same hymn sheet

 

[Woodyhoopleson]

No woody you are right it can't tell between live ( by which you mean in a virus) and dead D/RNA...because there is no such thing as live or dead D/RNA.

But the point I was making that RNA breaks down very quickly...so the correct sequence that is recognised by the PCR template...is unlikely ( bit not impossible) to hang around for any great length of time.
So if it is detected is more probably alive rather than dead.


But the point about the cycling is a million percent correct...and it is the point I was making too with out going into detail.

PCR takes a sequence and amplifies it ..If it amplifies beyond the threshold for positivity quickly (20 cycles) you are likely to be positive....but it probable that if you amplify anyone 100-200 they too would be positive ( falsely).
So the person who sets up the test and the person who does the test have to know what they are doing...and they have to understand and interprete the test correctly too.

And there must be no contamination.

So don't do it on the cheap with amateurs.

On that point we are all singing from the same hymn sheet

I knew not to refer to it as dead or living, I usually say active or inactive or something.

Anyway, this is the Heneghan interview I was recalling. From about 8.5/9 mins in, he’s talking about shedding ‘inactive’ viral RNA for anything up to 90 days, then goes on to talk about too high a level of cycles leading to inaccurate information but that the test could be used accurately at correct levels.

Good luck in the quiz. Let me know if any science based questions come up.

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[Stroller]

Great stuff from Woody and Beth. I really believe I get better Covid information on here than I do on MSM.

 

[Sooperhoop]

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[qprbeth]

I knew not to refer to it as dead or living, I usually say active or inactive or something.

Anyway, this is the Heneghan interview I was recalling. From about 8.5/9 mins in, he’s talking about shedding ‘inactive’ viral RNA for anything up to 90 days, then goes on to talk about too high a level of cycles leading to inaccurate information but that the test could be used accurately at correct levels.

Good luck in the quiz. Let me know if any science based questions come up.

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Thank you Woody. Great clip/interview.
Prof Henegan is very straight forward...cannot disagree with much he says.
Agree as said before about the PCR test.
He is suggesting that they should do a quantitative PCR ( a test that gived you a number ...in this case the lower the number the higher your viral count) rather than qualitative binary just positive or negative result.

This would be so possible...but would take a level of experience to interpretate the results.
It is the same with the active viral RNA and the dead/ shedding RNA...which will be lower level than at the height of the viral infection ..and you could tell this easily from quantitative values from the results

It all comes down to doing the Test correctly.. The test is foolproof....if done correctly but it is not done correctly. It is done by people who do not know what they are doing. "Garbage in Garbage out".

It is run by business people employing kids on minimal wage, working under stressed conditions

The most telling thing Henegan was saying was that he was sure that some one had decided already the political policy and is bending the science to fit it.
Is it Boris, was it Cummings...Were Valance and Whitty involved in that.
I don't know.. I really suspect it is just incompetence and panic !

It is certainly true the test system is not working...I have been harping on regards the false positives for months now.

Incidentally the makers instructions on at least one of the kits used indicate that samples should be run in duplicate in separate runs of the machine, to avoid false results. If positive, then the two results should not vary by more than a set amount. This is not being done now I am sure

I was warning on here right at the start of testing in May that there was a duplication of tests and that was the reason why the number of tests did not equal the number of patients tested.

The numbers of people tested and number of tests done now is much more compatible. I therefore think we are no longer doing duplicate tests. Another cheapskate cost cut I am afraid.

This all started with people saying Covid pandemic is over.
I don't think it is
Is it as bad as we are lead to believe...no I agree don't think it is either

I will still be isolating however..but as said before it makes little difference to me, I stay in, I wear a mask, and I meet no one except my daughter. I am so lucky. It is disastrous for many others... economically, mentally, socially. This is not factored in

Oh by the way my daughters test came back negative.
I am sure it is correct...she produced huge white pustules on her tonsils.. tonsillitis obviously...and is on the mend.

I am not disagreeing with you Woody... And no there were any good science questions in the quiz...but there was a whole round on Carry on films, I knew nothing.... I ask you Matron!

 

[QPR999]

The replies to this ...

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The Government has deleted this Tweet? Interesting?

 

[qprbeth]

The Government has deleted this Tweet? Interesting?

What did it say Rich

 

[QPR999]

What did it say Rich

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[QPR999]

I hope you get the gist of it from that Beth. I'll try to grab a better screenshot tomorrow if need be. I'm off to bed now. I hope you did well in your quiz.

 

[qprbeth]

Hi Rich. Thanks I get the idea. I know the powers that be are not showing all the figures. In my area of expertise. I have pointed out the test results never add up, never have.

This is a really really genuine question I don't understand, so would like to know other people's opinions.

So making out that this is much worse than it is....what is this government going to get out of it. They are bankrupting themselves and destroying the economic and social fabric of the country. That is not the Tory way...( If they were saying the opposite and saying go out, keep going to your job, don't worry about dying...the economy comes first...I would "understand" their logic then)

I don't see what the point of this statergy is

Or is it just panic and incompetence...as said earlier