Off Topic Coronavirus
- Thread starter Sooperhoop
- Start date
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I’ve been trying to understand the excess mortality. I see you are right that the week ending 16 October there is an increase of 700 in England and Wales compared to the 5 year average, but it looks like he is right that since June, there has been virtually no difference in the weekly counting, sometimes a hundred or two more, sometimes a hundred or two less.
He qualifies this recent jump by stating that following a conversation with a pathologist colleague, he understands that this recent excess is a jump in 45-65 year olds with non respiratory related issues, the result of limited or no access to the health service over the last 6 months or so.
What the unreadable spreadsheet says for the week of 16 October (copied directly from the ONS website) is:
- The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 16 October 2020 (Week 42) was 10,534; this was 580 more deaths than in Week 41.
- In Week 42, the number of deaths registered was 6.8% above the five-year average (669 deaths higher).
- Of the deaths registered in Week 42, 670 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, accounting for 6.4% of all deaths in England and Wales; this is an increase of 232 deaths compared with Week 41 (when there were 438 deaths involving COVID-19, accounting for 4.4% of all deaths).
- The numbers of deaths in hospitals remained below the five-year average in Week 42 with 184 fewer deaths, while the number of deaths in private homes and care homes were above the five-year average at 776 and 90 more deaths respectively.
Maybe Yeadon’s information was out of date, but as a scientist he should know that taking anecdotal evidence from an N of 1 - his pathologist friend - is extremely poor methodology.
Anyway, as I said to Strolls, let’s move on, this chap isn’t going to change anything, even if he is right.
Again, he isn’t disputing the excess in week 42, he does seem to be disputing the cause of the excess, insisting there is zero increase in respiratory deaths.
He seems correct though about the fact that mortality since June in pretty much bang on the same as the previous 5 year average, leading him to believe that the pandemic ended then. He says if you have a dangerous virus spreading through the population, you would be seeing hundreds of excess deaths every day.
So which part of his information would you suggest is out of date? And why would we move on, roll over and accept what is in store for us, before fully clarifying and understanding what he is saying to us, especially if he is right?
This is what's happening according to Robert Peston ...
These are the measures to be announced by the PM at 5, as I understand it. They will last 2 December. And they are, In effect, a new “Tier 4” that will be imposed for a month initially to the whole of England.
1) All pubs and restaurants to close, though takeaways and deliveries will be permitted.
2) All non-essential retail to close, though supermarkets won't have to follow the Welsh example of fencing off non-essential goods.
3) There will be no mixing of people inside homes, except for childcare and other forms of support...
3) Manufacturing and construction will be encouraged to keep going.
4) Outbound international travel will be banned, except for work.
5) Travel within the UK will be discouraged, except for work.
6) Overnight stays away from home will be allowed only for work purposes...
7) Courts, schools, and universities will remain open.
8) Outdoor exercise and recreation will be encouraged.
9) Private prayer will continue in places of worship, but not services. It all starts at one second past midnight on Thursday. The regulations will be published in Tuesday, and MPs will vote on them on Wednesday. One source told me to consider the regulations as a Tier 4 for the whole of England. After 2 December, the exit strategy is that different parts of the country will then have their local economies and behaviour governed by the existing Tiers, namely Tiers 1 to 3, depending on how serious the virus is in these respective places.
These are the measures to be announced by the PM at 5, as I understand it. They will last 2 December. And they are, In effect, a new “Tier 4” that will be imposed for a month initially to the whole of England.
1) All pubs and restaurants to close, though takeaways and deliveries will be permitted.
2) All non-essential retail to close, though supermarkets won't have to follow the Welsh example of fencing off non-essential goods.
3) There will be no mixing of people inside homes, except for childcare and other forms of support...
3) Manufacturing and construction will be encouraged to keep going.
4) Outbound international travel will be banned, except for work.
5) Travel within the UK will be discouraged, except for work.
6) Overnight stays away from home will be allowed only for work purposes...
7) Courts, schools, and universities will remain open.
8) Outdoor exercise and recreation will be encouraged.
9) Private prayer will continue in places of worship, but not services. It all starts at one second past midnight on Thursday. The regulations will be published in Tuesday, and MPs will vote on them on Wednesday. One source told me to consider the regulations as a Tier 4 for the whole of England. After 2 December, the exit strategy is that different parts of the country will then have their local economies and behaviour governed by the existing Tiers, namely Tiers 1 to 3, depending on how serious the virus is in these respective places.
Where will you be moving on to?
Are you not concerned that he seems to be right about excess mortality since June?
I don’t understand how you can believe him to be credible, can see that the info he is quoting is accurate but want to move on, because nothing will change, even if he is right.
But that’s fine of course.
Yes it is fine. I think you have misread my opinions, but honestly, who cares? Cheers.
I may have done, but I don’t think so. I was pushing for a little debate, but what a waste of time.
Most of us are concentrating on QPR throwing away a two goal lead.
Thought you might be interested, but obviously not.
I could and I've just run round the living room because......
Oh wait, you're not interested.
Private prayer will continue in places of worship.......for me praying we don't concede anymore stupid penalty's this season.
Bottom line is virus is going to be round for a long time to come.
There appears to be those that abide by the rules to try to prevent the spread of the virus, whether this is age, health or just common sense approach.
There are those places - ie the Hashish bar(probably spelt wrong) that lets in 150 and gets closed down after first offence was a fine. There are the youngsters that are having their freedoms restricted (well we all are by these days the snow flakes are the ones that suffer most) that carry on regardless. There are also the others that should know better but don't care about others.
For me, I have health issues, look after my parents and have a partner who has struggled a lot this year. I have friends who have seen their business mothballed for months on end. I know two people who have passed away, and a friend who is still struggling after catching this in Feb / March time.
I was hoping that there would be developments in finding cure for the virus. We do not hear about China and Wuhan anymore - either the place is locked down, it is now a ghost town or there is life with a track / trace system that works or a cure.
Whatever happens - all I want to say is that I hope he supports people that need support
And that you all, and your friends and families att stay safe and well.
Bottom line is virus is going to be round for a long time to come.
There appears to be those that abide by the rules to try to prevent the spread of the virus, whether this is age, health or just common sense approach.
There are those places - ie the Hashish bar(probably spelt wrong) that lets in 150 and gets closed down after first offence was a fine. There are the youngsters that are having their freedoms restricted (well we all are by these days the snow flakes are the ones that suffer most) that carry on regardless. There are also the others that should know better but don't care about others.
For me, I have health issues, look after my parents and have a partner who has struggled a lot this year. I have friends who have seen their business mothballed for months on end. I know two people who have passed away, and a friend who is still struggling after catching this in Feb / March time.
I was hoping that there would be developments in finding cure for the virus. We do not hear about China and Wuhan anymore - either the place is locked down, it is now a ghost town or there is life with a track / trace system that works or a cure.
Whatever happens - all I want to say is that I hope he supports people that need support
And that you all, and your friends and families att stay safe and well.
Strange isn't it? Seems there might not be total agreement in the Cabinet on what he's going to announce.
Starmer is the problem for them. They've got to find a way of pretending that they're not doing what he called for a few weeks ago.
The delay kind of suggests a major resignation. Wishful thinking maybe. One of their whatsapp journalists would’ve leaked it by now anyway.