Off Topic Coronavirus

[Staines R's]

It’s a horrible thing to say but it’s quite important to have the do not resuscitate conversation with your elderly relations before it gets to this stage, where no one can be expected to think straight. I had to do it with my mum a few years ago after she had recovered - 6-8 months- from massive heart surgery - she was very clear that she would not go through anything like that as an older or frailer person.

Totally this.......’cos if the conversation hasn’t taken place, even if you know granny would like to pass away peacefully.......if I don’t see that bit of paper that I’m gonna be pumping on her chest and breaking every rib in her little frail old body.......(though in certain circumstances I might not start)

 

[Frome-Ranger]

Anyone know if our players have started training again like other clubs? Albeit with strict social distancing. Just saw Glenn Murray interviewed on the Beeb and that's made me feel much less optimistic about football genuinely starting up again. I know it's not a life or death thing but footy on the box could help those getting itchy feet with the lock down.

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

Anyone know if our players have started training again like other clubs? Albeit with strict social distancing. Just saw Glenn Murray interviewed on the Beeb and that's made me feel much less optimistic about football genuinely starting up again. I know it's not a life or death thing but footy on the box could help those getting itchy feet with the lock down.

Yeah I saw something on Instagram from one of them doing a bit of gym work.

 

[SW Ranger]

With many countries beginning relaxation of lockdown rules, it will be interesting to see how this government handles the pressure. It appears partial document leaks have started, presumably to monitor public response as well as business feedback. I would imagine there is some expectation from businesses and employees that things will start to move. What worries me are the supply chains, both here and from imports, that will have been impacted hugely and will struggle to get going again.

That said however it seems a little early to open up the UK - to me anyway. The deaths and infection numbers still appear to be coming in and the danger of a second wave would seem a relatively high risk. The government has some serious decisions ahead, and their past performance will be raising considerable doubts I am sure.

 

[kiwiqpr]

Yeah I saw something on Instagram from one of them doing a bit of gym work.

Lifting his wallet

 

[QPR Oslo]

Anyone know if our players have started training again like other clubs? Albeit with strict social distancing. Just saw Glenn Murray interviewed on the Beeb and that's made me feel much less optimistic about football genuinely starting up again. I know it's not a life or death thing but footy on the box could help those getting itchy feet with the lock down.

I think Eze said on his recent Sky interview that some of them were training together again, and had a fitness program they were following.

 

[Frome-Ranger]

With many countries beginning relaxation of lockdown rules, it will be interesting to see how this government handles the pressure. It appears partial document leaks have started, presumably to monitor public response as well as business feedback. I would imagine there is some expectation from businesses and employees that things will start to move. What worries me are the supply chains, both here and from imports, that will have been impacted hugely and will struggle to get going again.

That said however it seems a little early to open up the UK - to me anyway. The deaths and infection numbers still appear to be coming in and the danger of a second wave would seem a relatively high risk. The government has some serious decisions ahead, and their past performance will be raising considerable doubts I am sure.

I really hope they stay firm on this and don't give in to the pressure. Also wish Johnson didn't use analogies like 'We've wrestled the virus to the ground' because we really haven't, I think it gives a misleading impression. We've made progress but there's a long way to go.

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

I really hope they stay firm on this and don't give in to the pressure. Also wish Johnson didn't use analogies like 'We've wrestled the virus to the ground' because we really haven't, I think it gives a misleading impression. We've made progress but there's a long way to go.

It’s intentionally misleading. It’s not in his best interests to paint an accurate picture of the situation and more than enough people are lubed up and ready for whatever he gives them regardless of what it is.

 

[Frome-Ranger]

It’s intentionally misleading. It’s not in his best interests to paint an accurate picture of the situation and more than enough people are lubed up and ready for whatever he gives them regardless of what it is.

Do you reckon they will take a gamble on lifting restrictions or genuinely try and beat this thing first?

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

Do you reckon they will take a gamble on lifting restrictions or genuinely try and beat this thing first?

Think they’ll see it as too risky based on our ‘R’ value and the number of people still being admitted to hospital daily. The really draconian lockdowns are only very slowly being lifted now and we did our weird fudge do what you want lockdown two weeks later.

 

[sb_73]

Do you reckon they will take a gamble on lifting restrictions or genuinely try and beat this thing first?

You can’t beat it without a vaccine. Lots of positive noises on this, but it’s not easy or fast, usually, to develop these. So far only about 5% of the population estimated to have had the virus, so lockdown could last a very long time indeed.

Meanwhile the consequences of lockdown mount up. Estimated two million jobs lost in hospitality industry in companies that will never reopen (source: former Tory -Cameron- advisor who now runs his own trendy office space firm, BBC Radio 4).

Still, the NHS is protected isn’t it?

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

You can’t beat it without a vaccine. Lots of positive noises on this, but it’s not easy or fast, usually, to develop these. So far only about 5% of the population estimated to have had the virus, so lockdown could last a very long time indeed.

Meanwhile the consequences of lockdown mount up. Estimated two million jobs lost in hospitality industry in companies that will never reopen (source: former Tory -Cameron- advisor who now runs his own trendy office space firm, BBC Radio 4).

Still, the NHS is protected isn’t it?

Protected in the way someone suffering from gangrene is protected when you cut their legs off.

 

[Stroller]

You can’t beat it without a vaccine. Lots of positive noises on this, but it’s not easy or fast, usually, to develop these. So far only about 5% of the population estimated to have had the virus, so lockdown could last a very long time indeed.

Meanwhile the consequences of lockdown mount up. Estimated two million jobs lost in hospitality industry in companies that will never reopen (source: former Tory -Cameron- advisor who now runs his own trendy office space firm, BBC Radio 4).

Still, the NHS is protected isn’t it?

Where does the 5% figure come from? How can anyone possibly know when so many will have been asymptomatic.

It would be way higher in London, anyway.

 

[sb_73]

Where does the 5% figure come from? How can anyone possibly know when so many will have been asymptomatic.

It would be way higher in London, anyway.

It’s an estimate based on the data from the app which Beth mentioned and which I and about 3 million others input their daily status into. Might be an underestimate but I think 10% would be the absolute maximum. The current rate in my area is below 1% of residents having it. The app has some built in issues, as the people likely to have downloaded it are also likely to be sensible social distancers.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

It would be great if it was higher and it probably is a bit in London and other big cities, but I am pretty sure it is nowhere near the levels (60% plus) needed for notional herd immunity. If we had got near that the NHS would have collapsed very visibly.

In the absence of mass, random testing and/or an antibody test isn’t it impossible to assume that anyone has been asymptomatic?

 

[Uber_Hoop]

You must log in or register to see media

 

[Stroller]

It’s an estimate based on the data from the app which Beth mentioned and which I and about 3 million others input their daily status into. Might be an underestimate but I think 10% would be the absolute maximum. The current rate in my area is below 1% of residents having it. The app has some built in issues, as the people likely to have downloaded it are also likely to be sensible social distancers.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

It would be great if it was higher and it probably is a bit in London and other big cities, but I am pretty sure it is nowhere near the levels (60% plus) needed for notional herd immunity. If we had got near that the NHS would have collapsed very visibly.

In the absence of mass, random testing and/or an antibody test isn’t it impossible to assume that anyone has been asymptomatic?

I'm confused by this. What about people who are inputting their current status but may have had the virus before the app was available?

I think Beth said on here (not sure when, but I remember being struck by it) that as many as 60% of those contracting the virus could be asymptomatic. I just did a google search and found this https://www.sciencealert.com/a-physician-answers-5-questions-about-asymptomatic-covid-19, which puts the number at between 10 and 40%. These levels of asymptomatic carriers would make the data from contributors to the app wholly unreliable surely?

It all comes back to the need for reliable antibody testing.

 

[Sooperhoop]

Interesting that in France doctors have had samples from Pneumonia patients in December re-tested and some positive results have been shown which backs the theory it was around well before China owned up.

My missus had a terrible cough and was unwell for about 4-5 days just after Christmas, she works in Debenhams and that was just after one of their busiest times of the year where she was covering staff shortages and non stop serving on tills. I had a milder version just after her and had done a lot of airport work in that period. Hopefully when a proper antibody test arrives we might find we've already had it...

 

[sb_73]

I'm confused by this. What about people who are inputting their current status but may have had the virus before the app was available?

I think Beth said on here (not sure when, but I remember being struck by it) that as many as 60% of those contracting the virus could be asymptomatic. I just did a google search and found this https://www.sciencealert.com/a-physician-answers-5-questions-about-asymptomatic-covid-19, which puts the number at between 10 and 40%. These levels of asymptomatic carriers would make the data from contributors to the app wholly unreliable surely?

It all comes back to the need for reliable antibody testing.

All the data is unreliable. An estimate with a variation of 300% for the numbers of symptomless carriers is useless. I am at the stage of taking the worst interpretation as the safest - it would be lovely for us to think loads of people have already had the virus, many of them without symptoms, and as a result they are at least temporarily immune, but as you say without mass antibody testing there is only speculation, and there is no evidence beyond common sense and experience about immunity.

So let’s say up to 90% of the population have not yet been infected and there is a high chance that infection does not provide immunity. Because as far as I know we have no evidence to prove otherwise. Plan on this basis.

 

[Stroller]

Interesting that in France doctors have had samples from Pneumonia patients in December re-tested and some positive results have been shown which backs the theory it was around well before China owned up.

My missus had a terrible cough and was unwell for about 4-5 days just after Christmas, she works in Debenhams and that was just after one of their busiest times of the year where she was covering staff shortages and non stop serving on tills. I had a milder version just after her and had done a lot of airport work in that period. Hopefully when a proper antibody test arrives we might find we've already had it...

As I've said on here before, I suspect that all of my household may have had the virus with mild symptoms. Allowing for those that may have been asymptomatic, my uneducated guess would be that 25% of the population have had the virus.

 

[qprbeth]

I'm confused by this. What about people who are inputting their current status but may have had the virus before the app was available?

I think Beth said on here (not sure when, but I remember being struck by it) that as many as 60% of those contracting the virus could be asymptomatic. I just did a google search and found this https://www.sciencealert.com/a-physician-answers-5-questions-about-asymptomatic-covid-19, which puts the number at between 10 and 40%. These levels of asymptomatic carriers would make the data from contributors to the app wholly unreliable surely?

It all comes back to the need for reliable antibody testing.

So the offical figures (of as low as 10%) are now based on the number of figures of people who have tested CoVid19 positive and state they have had no symptoms

The previous figures right at the start were based on modelling (yes we now know that is an absolutely "foolproof" method!!!!!) and was determined by the travelling speed of the virus and the R number (the number of people each person would infect which at the start was as high as 3.6, but now is about 0.7).If one person actually did infect 3 people and they came down with serious symptoms, our (and the world) NHS would not have coped. So it was deduced that at least around half the people infected did not get symptoms to complain about at that time early in the pandemic. You also have to remember in January, the UK was a different place. If you got a headache, a cough and a bit of a fever...you went off to work and got on with it, telling no-one in particular. Now with the same symptoms, you tell people, you fill in the app, you get a test. Anyone who had mild CoVid in Jan-March will have been missed


So one of the points of this app is to try and pick up on these very mild (assymptomatic cases), to see who is getting mild symptoms....as they may not be affected, but they could pass onto an old lady with asthma and it could kill her.

The antigen test is proving a little fickle and is depending on a few things being done right, like sampling and transport to the test centre and other things like that

We need an antibody test very badly, so that we can see who has got protection, but it has to be sensitive, because protective antibody responses may well be quite small in people who have fought and won the CoVid war quickly. ( That is still a good thing though because when the virus is seen a second time the response will be waiting).
Hope that explains a few things Stroller