Off Topic Coronavirus

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qprbeth said:
Please see my comment to Stainsy about multiorgan failure and cytokine storm
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Yes, But I was assuming that as this is what actually kills people who died ‘of’ COVID19, they were recorded as COVID19 deaths. There are a large number of additional deaths that are not being recorded as COVID19 deaths, presumably they have something else on the death certificate. Why are they happening (not expecting an answer!) and more importantly why on Earth aren’t we talking about it?
 
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qprbeth said:
Ellers great video...but a few mistakes here, and he has no scientific justification for the size of the effects his changes have on the curve. It is just random hypothesising

Although I go along with his general message of "Trust the scientists" and "ignore the media"

The stay at home when you feel ill mantra:-It is not that simple but there is a lag period of 5-7 days even if they become very ill. And 60% of people are assymptomatic...and will never self isolate, as innocentally they do not know too. The stay at home part is weak too

He assumes that the lockdown will be total to acheive that shift. It was not.

He stresses the point you can only hold the lockdown for a finite time, that is one of my big points too..so why not make it 3-4 weeks total lockdown and then smooth out to become partial from there.

The transmission rate during total lockdown (like Northern Italy) would have been near to zero....and so when we came out of total lockdown into partial lockdown the transmission rate would rise but would never get past 1:1. As each time you relaxed the conditions, you would get a rise in numbers, you wait till they abate and then relax the rules of lockdown again.

I was asked how I would do it. I think your vid has straightened my mind Ellers
Thank you
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It's not my Video beth I just posted it. If I had done that the graphics would have been better (although I am no expert on those things). I do like his points about the lockdown and effects. I keep reading how more deaths will result in a prolonged lockdown? I take your points on discipline as well. I said to Sb that in South Korea they were not having big parties and breaking the rules but obeyed the guidelines.
 
qprbeth said:
I thought it would Stainsy....but I was unaware how deadly it is to certain people.
I was wrong

As I have said many times.
The respiratory attack isn't what kills people. It is the inflammatory cytokine storm causing multiorgan failure that is killing most of the people. I was unaware at the start about this facet of the disease.

I thought lots of people would catch a nasty cold, a few people with chronic lung disease and asthma would unfortunately die (as with seasonal flu). I did not expect that so many people would experience organ failure
Click to expand...

Sorry Beth I’m a bit confused.....so are you now saying that ‘herd immunity’ would of been a good thing or a bad thing ? All with hindsight....?
I’m still thinking if contact would of been controlled, while of course protecting the old and vulnerable...it could of been the right way forward if those in charge would of stuck to their guns.
 
sb_73 said:
They couldn’t test for this coronavirus because it has only existed for a few months. I imagine they would conduct a post-mortem when cause of death is not clear.

Did you read the FT article?

I would like a weekly briefing on all cause deaths v the five year average delivered by someone from the ONS, definitely not a politician.
Click to expand...
They did have coronavirus just not Covid-19? I will read article
 
qprbeth said:
I thought it would Stainsy....but I was unaware how deadly it is to certain people.
I was wrong

As I have said many times.
The respiratory attack isn't what kills people. It is the inflammatory cytokine storm causing multiorgan failure that is killing most of the people. I was unaware at the start about this facet of the disease.

I thought lots of people would catch a nasty cold, a few people with chronic lung disease and asthma would unfortunately die (as with seasonal flu). I did not expect that so many people would experience organ failure
Click to expand...

But the vast majority who die of/with COVID have got comorbidities in the first place.
 
ELLERS said:
They did have coronavirus just not Covid-19? I will read article
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In current circumstances coronavirus and COVID19 are the same thing Ellers. Coronavirus is the family name for this type of virus, COVID19 is the specific version we are experiencing - it stands for Corona Virus Disease 2019.
 
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sb_73 said:
In current circumstances coronavirus and COVID19 are the same thing Ellers. Coronavirus is the family name for this type of virus, COVID19 is the specific version we are experiencing - it stands for Corona Virus Disease 2019.
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I know that Sb and not being pedantic here but Coronavirus has been around for some time. My point was that for all we know something from that 'family' may have been finishing off people without it being recorded like it is now.

On that recording of deaths I had, it confirmed yesterday via my friend who works in Germany (Pharma). from his colleague who works in a hospital there said they do record their deaths differently to us. In fact, they find our way 'strange'.
 
Staines R's said:
Sorry Beth I’m a bit confused.....so are you now saying that ‘herd immunity’ would of been a good thing or a bad thing ? All with hindsight....?
I’m still thinking if contact would of been controlled, while of course protecting the old and vulnerable...it could of been the right way forward if those in charge would of stuck to their guns.
Click to expand...

Sorry Stainsy I am a bit confusing...My brain jumps faster than I can type

I really believed in herd immunit at the start. As I thought it would not be too bad, and the majority would get a "cold", a few would get "flu", and a few would be hospitalised with respiratory symptoms and may or may not die. But so many would have mild symptoms that it would pass through the majority of the population ...people would become immune and so the transmission rate would decrease, but not many would die.



I had no idea, that there would be a second part of the infection...where 2 weeks after infection, the persons body attacks itself with antibodies and cytokines and essentially tries to wipe out the whole body. That can only be treated in hospital, and there is not much even the hospital can do except it it out and maintain the persons body whilst the battle is raging. That will overcome our hospitals too quickly.


I was wrong. The herd immunity idea would not work (in society as we hare today as it is more destructive than I thought and too many people would die, if we let it go through our community without checking.

So I have changed my mind. 21st century Britain, could not have taken the results of herd immunity concept.
We had to go with lockdown.

Is that any better...sorry
 
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qprbeth said:
Sorry Stainsy I am a bit confusing...My brain jumps faster than I can type

I really believed in herd immunit at the start. As I thought it would not be too bad, and the majority would get a "cold", a few would get "flu", and a few would be hospitalised with respiratory symptoms and may or may not die. But so many would have mild symptoms that it would pass through the majority of the population ...people would become immune and so the transmission rate would decrease, but not many would die.



I had no idea, that there would be a second part of the infection...where 2 weeks after infection, the persons body attacks itself with antibodies and cytokines and essentially tries to wipe out the whole body. That can only be treated in hospital, and there is not much even the hospital can do except it it out and maintain the persons body whilst the battle is raging. That will overcome our hospitals too quickly.


I was wrong. The herd immunity idea would not work (in society as we hare today as it is more destructive than I thought and too many people would die, if we let it go through our community without checking.

So I have changed my mind. 21st century Britain, could not have taken the results of herd immunity concept.
We had to go with lockdown.

Is that any better...sorry
Click to expand...

Much better Beth and a very clear answer that will make me go away and have a think on my views. Not saying I’ll change my mind but hearing that from someone like yourself who has knowledge in these matters....it’s definitely good for thought.
Thankyou
 
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qprbeth said:
Sorry Stainsy I am a bit confusing...My brain jumps faster than I can type

I really believed in herd immunit at the start. As I thought it would not be too bad, and the majority would get a "cold", a few would get "flu", and a few would be hospitalised with respiratory symptoms and may or may not die. But so many would have mild symptoms that it would pass through the majority of the population ...people would become immune and so the transmission rate would decrease, but not many would die.



I had no idea, that there would be a second part of the infection...where 2 weeks after infection, the persons body attacks itself with antibodies and cytokines and essentially tries to wipe out the whole body. That can only be treated in hospital, and there is not much even the hospital can do except it it out and maintain the persons body whilst the battle is raging. That will overcome our hospitals too quickly.


I was wrong. The herd immunity idea would not work (in society as we hare today as it is more destructive than I thought and too many people would die, if we let it go through our community without checking.

So I have changed my mind. 21st century Britain, could not have taken the results of herd immunity concept.
We had to go with lockdown.

Is that any better...sorry
Click to expand...

With this post and some of your earlier ones, are you not demonstrating just how hellishly difficult this whole thing is?
 
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rangercol said:
With this post and some of your earlier ones, are you not demonstrating just how hellishly difficult this whole thing is?
Click to expand...

Absolutely Col. 100% right I am not denying that. You are so right on that fact.
It is a new virus, we know little about it or the disease it causes...or how it is really transmitted


I am reacting to what I read; I am not on the front line, and information I get trickles through, some of my information is wrong. Much of the info we get is distorted. We are only given some information not others. (telling us how many have died might be a too bitter pill to take at the moment). They also have all the information days before we do

I am not an epidemiologist, or a pandemic a modeller, although I worked with two ( and one of them is on COBRA and listened to some of what they said). One of them said in January, how bad it was going to be...and I pooooed him. I have grovellingly apologised to him too.

The experts have got all the info, and more, they have the best computers and most up to date info. They do know best. I do not know best.
But I was asked for my opinion and right or wrong, I must say that I still feel that we have been slow and indecisive.
 
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I think the experts can only be experts on the information provided by the WHO, Chinese government and the EU. If they withhold information then we can act on guess-mates.
Also, based upon earlier comments on here about number of deaths, whilst I think has been completely wrong for the ill to go to the care homes, the care home managers do have a say on whether they can accommodate more residents and the money the resident brings in with them.
And if we are expecting more deaths than we already have, the USA have over 50 thousand, Italy and France have also had very high numbers...then China with only 3500...….
 
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qprbeth said:
Sorry Stainsy I am a bit confusing...My brain jumps faster than I can type

I really believed in herd immunit at the start. As I thought it would not be too bad, and the majority would get a "cold", a few would get "flu", and a few would be hospitalised with respiratory symptoms and may or may not die. But so many would have mild symptoms that it would pass through the majority of the population ...people would become immune and so the transmission rate would decrease, but not many would die.



I had no idea, that there would be a second part of the infection...where 2 weeks after infection, the persons body attacks itself with antibodies and cytokines and essentially tries to wipe out the whole body. That can only be treated in hospital, and there is not much even the hospital can do except it it out and maintain the persons body whilst the battle is raging. That will overcome our hospitals too quickly.


I was wrong. The herd immunity idea would not work (in society as we hare today as it is more destructive than I thought and too many people would die, if we let it go through our community without checking.

So I have changed my mind. 21st century Britain, could not have taken the results of herd immunity concept.
We had to go with lockdown.

Is that any better...sorry
Click to expand...

Is it not still true that the vast majority of deaths from the virus are amongst people either with other existing conditions or those who have had extended exposure to it, Beth? You described in an earlier post the concept of viral load and I took this to mean that it would take continued and extended exposure to the virus to cause serious illness or death in otherwise healthy people. Is this not the case?
 
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qprbeth said:
Absolutely Col. 100% right I am not denying that. You are so right on that fact.
It is a new virus, we know little about it or the disease it causes...or how it is really transmitted


I am reacting to what I read; I am not on the front line, and information I get trickles through, some of my information is wrong. Much of the info we get is distorted. We are only given some information not others. (telling us how many have died might be a too bitter pill to take at the moment). They also have all the information days before we do

I am not an epidemiologist, or a pandemic a modeller, although I worked with two ( and one of them is on COBRA and listened to some of what they said). One of them said in January, how bad it was going to be...and I pooooed him. I have grovellingly apologised to him too.

The experts have got all the info, and more, they have the best computers and most up to date info. They do know best. I do not know best.
But I was asked for my opinion and right or wrong, I must say that I still feel that we have been slow and indecisive.
Click to expand...

Also we aren’t expected to get it right. We’re the amateurs and they are the ones paid handsomely to get at least most of it right. I’m a terrible footballer compared to Marc Pugh but I can still suggest he had a dreadful game.
 
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