Off Topic Coronavirus

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sb_73 said:
I think they have got the message Bob, Col and all others in this Catch 22. I think their problem is the mechanics of supporting the income of the self employed, and hopefully they will sort something soon. Lots of focus on it.

Interesting comment by Matthew Parris in the Times today. He notes, and I think several on here have alluded to this, that the political approach to this, globally, is to lock down everyone to protect the vulnerable. The alternative is to lock down the vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with it.............Parris is an old geezer himself. It’s an attractive argument.......

Interesting shift in the messaging from both the UK government and the WHO yesterday - telling younger people that they are vulnerable too and could die. As far as I can see there is no new evidence behind this, the younger you are the less likely you are to get a severe version of the disease, and the chances of dying are really minuscule compared to oldies. So why the change in messaging? My guess is that this is a social control measure, because it’s estimated that less than 50% of people are following the guidance, and the next step is to scare them, prior to coercive measures we have never seen in peacetime.

Have a good weekend everyone.
Click to expand...

I think there’s a bit of that but also it is true. Some young people will need hospital treatment even if they’re otherwise healthy and if that resource simply isn’t there they’re in trouble. Small percentages but if it’s a small percentage of a huge number it’s a huge problem.
 
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West WindsR said:
I think there’s a bit of that but also it is true. Some young people will need hospital treatment even if they’re otherwise healthy and if that resource simply isn’t there they’re in trouble. Small percentages but if it’s a small percentage of a huge number it’s a huge problem.
Click to expand...
Yes, there can be no definitives and there will be some very unfortunate cases which can’t be predicted. And the numbers could get even more frightening. But the idea of helping the vulnerable to self isolate rather than just social distance could have some validity, especially if it mitigates some of the economic damage. **** knows mate.

I see the Chinese are loosening their lockdown, be interesting to see what happens with case numbers, if we can trust the figures they release. I am really struggling to believe that the death toll in China, which ignored the virus for a month, has a very patchy healthcare system and poor general health status, plus pollution and smoking habits which leave most people’s lungs compromised, is really lower than Italy’s even given the demographic and response issues in Italy.
 
West WindsR said:
I think there’s a bit of that but also it is true. Some young people will need hospital treatment even if they’re otherwise healthy and if that resource simply isn’t there they’re in trouble. Small percentages but if it’s a small percentage of a huge number it’s a huge problem.
Click to expand...

On the BBC News last night they said the death rate of under 20s was 0.1%, whilst for over 80s it is 8%. 0.1% may seem low, but if 100,000 under 20s catch it then it's still 100 preventable deaths
 
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Sooperhoop said:
Interesting looking at the stats on here, Germany with over 20,000 cases has a total of 72 deaths compared to the UK with under 4,000 cases and 177 deaths. Germany has been testing at first sign of possible virus whereas we don't until hospitalised, it's not rocket science...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click to expand...

I don’t honestly know why we’re producing tests at such a relatively slow rate. Does anyone?
 
West WindsR said:
I don’t honestly know why we’re producing tests at such a relatively slow rate. Does anyone?
Click to expand...

It's crazy really, if you confirm a case at the early signs when it's contagious you can break the chain that will infect many more, yet another backward step in decision making by our 'experts'...
 
Sooperhoop said:
It's crazy really, if you confirm a case at the early signs when it's contagious you can break the chain that will infect many more, yet another backward step in decision making by our 'experts'...
Click to expand...

I don’t even mean to bash the Tories on this as it’s so obvious. Was thinking there must be some logistical reason rather than being out of any sort of choice.
 
sb_73 said:
I think they have got the message Bob, Col and all others in this Catch 22. I think their problem is the mechanics of supporting the income of the self employed, and hopefully they will sort something soon. Lots of focus on it.

Interesting comment by Matthew Parris in the Times today. He notes, and I think several on here have alluded to this, that the political approach to this, globally, is to lock down everyone to protect the vulnerable. The alternative is to lock down the vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with it.............Parris is an old geezer himself. It’s an attractive argument.......

Interesting shift in the messaging from both the UK government and the WHO yesterday - telling younger people that they are vulnerable too and could die. As far as I can see there is no new evidence behind this, the younger you are the less likely you are to get a severe version of the disease, and the chances of dying are really minuscule compared to oldies. So why the change in messaging? My guess is that this is a social control measure, because it’s estimated that less than 50% of people are following the guidance, and the next step is to scare them, prior to coercive measures we have never seen in peacetime.

Have a good weekend everyone.
Click to expand...

In my opinion they should make a straight forward payment to everyone who can show they work, presumably via national insurance numbers.
It's all going to get far too complicated.
 
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Sooperhoop said:
Interesting looking at the stats on here, Germany with over 20,000 cases has a total of 72 deaths compared to the UK with under 4,000 cases and 177 deaths. Germany has been testing at first sign of possible virus whereas we don't until hospitalised, it's not rocket science...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click to expand...

I have been told that there is a difference in reporting.
Germany only records deaths from Coronovirus, if they have a positive virial test, and they do not test everyone who has died either
In this country we record deaths if they admit with the symptoms, and also I think we test all people who die.


You ask why we don't test everyone...3 reasons (this is actually my area of speciality, I use to run a NHS diagnostic lab)
1. Obviously the virus has only been fully identified in the last 3 months, it takes time to develop, test, manufacture and distribute test kits
2. There are two different kits, that tell you different things...Viral test kits: that tell you if you have the rampant virus now (and 85% of us will get rid of the virus after infection pretty quickly) and antibody test kits: this will tell if you have had the virus and if your body has made antibodies to neutralise the antibodies. Both are useful and very important
3. Manpower; the tests have to be done by humans, in specialised laboratories with the help now of robotics. But the robots still have to be loaded up and managed. And again it is all new...people have to be taught, equipment and reagents have to be sourced etc.


There are number of lights at the end of the tunnel
1. A vaccine has just gone under stage 1 testing...thats just into animals and healthy volunteers, but that is the fastest it has ever been done
2. Mefloquine, an (already licenced anti malarial drug) seems to be useful and maybe the reason China have got a grip on their epidemic
3. An antibody has been found, from a patient with SARS, that crossreacts withCovid-19 and so could be used to fight Covid-19. (It has not been said...but I believe that if that is true, that there actually be some natural immunity in the population already)
 
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West WindsR said:
I don’t even mean to bash the Tories on this as it’s so obvious. Was thinking there must be some logistical reason rather than being out of any sort of choice.
Click to expand...

This from the BBC yesterday:

"As of 19 March, 64,621 people in the UK had been tested for coronavirus. The number of tests has been rising from just over 1,000 a day at the end of February, when testing began, to more than 6,000 per day by mid-March.

The government plans to increase this to 10,000 a day initially, with a goal of reaching 25,000 tests a day within four weeks.

The UK has done more testing than many other countries, although not more than the most rigorous testers like South Korea.

The UK passed its 2,500th case as of 18 March and has tested 828 people per million of its population. At this point in their outbreaks, Italy had conducted 386 tests per million citizens, while South Korea had done more than 2,000 tests per million."
 
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Sooperhoop said:
Interesting looking at the stats on here, Germany with over 20,000 cases has a total of 72 deaths compared to the UK with under 4,000 cases and 177 deaths. Germany has been testing at first sign of possible virus whereas we don't until hospitalised, it's not rocket science...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click to expand...

Is it really just that they are testing in far greater numbers than the UK or are they actually doing something different. I have been wondering, as their rate of increase has been so low in comparison.

If it is simply testing, surely that should be our no.1 priority to get going. It is madness that testing is still not available for frontline NHS staff so that they determine if they are fit to work.
 
qprbeth said:
I have been told that there is a difference in reporting.
Germany only records deaths from Coronovirus, if they have a positive virial test, and they do not test everyone who has died either
In this country we record deaths if they admit with the symptoms, and also I think we test all people who die.


You ask why we don't test everyone...3 reasons (this is actually my area of speciality, I use to run a NHS diagnostic lab)
1. Obviously the virus has only been fully identified in the last 3 months, it takes time to develop, test, manufacture and distribute test kits
2. There are two different kits, that tell you different things...Viral test kits: that tell you if you have the rampant virus now (and 85% of us will get rid of the virus after infection pretty quickly) and antibody test kits: this will tell if you have had the virus and if your body has made antibodies to neutralise the antibodies. Both are useful and very important
3. Manpower; the tests have to be done by humans, in specialised laboratories with the help now of robotics. But the robots still have to be loaded up and managed. And again it is all new...people have to be taught, equipment and reagents have to be sourced etc.


There are number of lights at the end of the tunnel
1. A vaccine has just gone under stage 1 testing...thats just into animals and healthy volunteers, but that is the fastest it has ever been done
2. Mefloquine, an (already licenced anti malarial drug) seems to be useful and maybe the reason China have got a grip on their epidemic
3. An antibody has been found, from a patient with SARS, that crossreacts withCovid-19 and so could be used to fight Covid-19. (It has not been said...but I believe that if that is true, that there actually be some natural immunity in the population already)
Click to expand...

Interesting Beth.
So if you had to produce one of the two tests which would it be and which would be the simplest to produce?

As far labs being manned, there must be thousands of first or second year med students across the UK who can load a sample into a machine. Every prospective support source should be considered.
 
Ranger4ever said:
Interesting Beth.
So if you had to produce one of the two tests which would it be and which would be the simplest to produce?

As far labs being manned, there must be thousands of first or second year med students across the UK who can load a sample into a machine. Every prospective support source should be considered.
Click to expand...
You need both R4E.
The viral test...when a patient turns up...you need to know if it is a cold, seasonal flu orCovid19 as you treat each differently. Since we have had the viral sequence since January, this is made and I believe most of the tests being done is this test

The antibody test takes a bit longer...and it has to be specific, otherwise we can get confused if it is not exact enough.
We will be picking up anyone wno has seen a Corona virus of any type, in the last few years, and that will actually be very very misleading and dangerous. I think that test is lagging behind.

As far labs being manned, there must be thousands of first or second year med students across the UK who can load a sample into a machine.

Yes you are right...but as said you have to have the diagnostic machines, in the right labs, with right data handling equipment, and the right reagents too. Biochemistry labs in hospitals run through the night, doing blood tests...so that part is very very possible, and very likely we can do that with the staff we have at the moment. My old lab had 40 people , who could be moved onto that testing, with just a little training if required
 
As a dedicated non hoarder and my family’s self appointed hunter gatherer I have just come back from my daily walk into town to forage for provisions.

Having just seen the newsflash that the government is saying that there is plenty of food to go round, I’m afraid to report that if you want fresh vegetables some families must have filled their attic with the stuff, which will doubtless go off and hopefully poison them, because there is very little in the shops, especially potatoes. Still I managed to come back with basically healthy meals for 3 days for the three of us at home. No panic.

Plenty of people out despite many of the shops being closed. No nastiness or short tempers that I observed. But it appears that I am the only person who has received, or understood, the 6ft distancing rule. It’s infuriating trying to dodge people 100% of the time, it would be so much easier if a few more made an effort. By the end of next week there will be people employed to shout at us when we are out, as we are clearly too stupid or selfish to understand and act accordingly. The people working in supermarkets must be odds on to get the virus, no attempt to protect them from what I could see.

Most cheering part of the walk was on the way back when I saw two blokes wearing surgical face masks. A bloke a couple of years younger than me and his twenty something son (I assume). The son had the mask half way down his face and his dad was endlessly fiddling with his. Thus increasing their chances of catching the virus. Brilliant.
 
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sb_73 said:
As a dedicated non hoarder and my family’s self appointed hunter gatherer I have just come back from my daily walk into town to forage for provisions.

Having just seen the newsflash that the government is saying that there is plenty of food to go round, I’m afraid to report that if you want fresh vegetables some families must have filled their attic with the stuff, which will doubtless go off and hopefully poison them, because there is very little in the shops, especially potatoes. Still I managed to come back with basically healthy meals for 3 days for the three of us at home. No panic.

Plenty of people out despite many of the shops being closed. No nastiness or short tempers that I observed. But it appears that I am the only person who has received, or understood, the 6ft distancing rule. It’s infuriating trying to dodge people 100% of the time, it would be so much easier if a few more made an effort. By the end of next week there will be people employed to shout at us when we are out, as we are clearly too stupid or selfish to understand and act accordingly. The people working in supermarkets must be odds on to get the virus, no attempt to protect them from what I could see.
Click to expand...

Anyone wearing a mask?
 
FROM the BBC
"More people have now died in Iran's Fars province from alcohol poisoning while trying to protect themselves from the coronavirus than from the disease itself, Iranian media report. Mohammad Javad Moradian, the director of the province's emergency services centre, told Isna news agency that Covid-19 had killed 13 people in Fars, while 66 have died after drinking industrial-strength alcohol.
A persistent rumour in Iran claims that drinking alcohol helps protect individuals from contracting the virus. Iran has now confirmed 20,610 cases and 1,556 deaths from the disease."

I really must lay off the gin
 
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