Haha Forza! That lengthy post was a good one and I think I understand what you're getting at, but I hope you'll not mind me pointing out the above apparent contradiction!
Indeed, if they can't make enough ground up to Monza (70-75 points) then I would say it would take some amount of pressure to even make him even sweat. Spa and Monza are tracks where Red Bull could take a big enough hit to be out of the top 3 where both a Ferrari and McLaren could win it.
McLaren employee Pedro De La Rosa says: "Alonso's comeback is no longer a miracle, it's a real possibility" http://www.republica.com/2011/07/13...es-un-milagro-es-una-realidad-posible_361127/ EDIT: It seems the quote above is just the Spanish interpretation. PDLR's actual words don't even mention Alonso: http://formulasantander.com/es/season-updates/columna-de-pedro-de-la-rosa
the RBR advantage has always been it's flexi-wing, which is why I've always said that the WDC is still up for grabs, if McLaren design one soon then RBR would have the 3rd best car, they have less power and a poor KERS system, if Mercedes make one then the cat would really be amongst the pigeons.
Vettel has maximised pretty much every oppurtunity so far this year and got himself to a position where he doesn't need to take risks. If in the unlikely situation he is 2nd or 3rd he can simply stay there and take the points - he knows he has all but won. Button: Certinly seems to be a good tactician and a master in the rain and has proven championship winning consistency. What I believe he lacks is the outright speed of Lewis Hamilton and the overtaking ability. Without it I see him consistently soaking up points and putting in the rare outstanding performance. He will achieve a good finish to the season, but he won't win. Hamilton: His sheer speed for me is not in question - never has been. In my honest opnion he was the best driver of 2010 as he had consistency to go with it. This year he seems to have lost his head a bit and feels Vettel is stealing his destiny. I still believe Hamilton to be the fastest driver on the grid and one of the best overtakers but it will not be enough. He has lost his consistency and is getting involved in too many incidents. If he did occasionaly settel for the points he would have a lot more atm. He also seems to have lost his wet weather mantel and he does not seem to maximise his tyres over a stint. I wish he would go a little slower in the first bit of a stint and push maximum at the end. McLaren are also making too many mistakes and the car has lost pace. If McLaren made no mistakes and one of the drivers had the combo of Hamiltons speed + overtaking skills and Buttons consistency + wet weather skills then they could mount a real challenge - unfortunately not. I think a real challenge to Vettel lies in the hands of Alonso who needs to get a second win straight in Germany to try and put any pressure in Vettels mind. It was refreshing to see Vettel behind Hamilton in a much faster Red-Bull with DRS and unable to pass - he is still human then. With his sheer quali advantage and those flying starts and Adrian newey and his ability to work the tyres properly over a stint he just has too many advantages. I still really want to see him having to come through from behind Webber, both ferraris and both McLarens to see how he can go without clean air. Unlikely to happen unfortunately.
Interestingly, if working to the 2009 points system, Vettel goes into the German GP having amassed the same amount of points as he totalled in the entire 2009 season. That's a bit scary.
Seb's around about Japan compared to last season (206), while Webber and Alonso are pretty much just ahead of the halfway point to last year.
