Can anyone realistically challenge Vettel for the title?

[cosicave]

Can anyone realistically challenge Vettel for the title?

Yes: at this stage it is still possible. But obviously this is becoming increasingly unlikely. My money has been on Vettel from a very early stage. (But, as ever, and not being a betting man, I don't mean this in the literal sense unfortunately!)

If a realistic challenge is to be mounted, it will almost certainly be from one of three men. However, this relies upon some serious development from McLaren, and continuing support by Massa for Alonso.

As I've attempted to hint, McLaren's most likely obstacle (even if they do manage the all-important catching up in development) is their even-handed approach to their drivers. I kid you not: their is no favouritism between the drivers from the Woking team, and it will remain this way until one of them has overwhelmingly difficult odds to overcome, in order to become Champion.

 

[u408379965]

My money has been on Vettel from a very early stage. (But, as ever, and not being a betting man, I don't mean this in the literal sense unfortunately!)

Same, but literally in my case.

I can't see him being caught. Even if Red Bull are caught, we'll probably see a situation where the races are being contended by a few drivers, which will prevent one driver getting the run of great results they need to overhaul Vettel. Also, with the cushion he has he won't be pressurised into rash mistakes. Hamilton is a great example of being in the other boat, unlike Vettel, he has to maximise every opportunity, which led to him imploding in Monaco last weekend. Vettel just needs to be solid, knowing that two or three wins out of the next 13 races is all he needs.

 

[WestCoastBoogaloo]

....Vettel just needs to be solid, knowing that two or three wins out of the next 13 races is all he needs.

Oh that is just depressing.

 

[cosicave]

Same, but literally in my case.

I can't see him being caught. Even if Red Bull are caught, we'll probably see a situation where the races are being contended by a few drivers, which will prevent one driver getting the run of great results they need to overhaul Vettel. …

Well done for getting your money down early. I can't help but wonder what odds you got. Anything better than 2:1 is looking a very good price indeed.

As for your second sentence, that's what I was getting at with my reference to McLaren. If Alonso was closer, the most serious challenge might come from him, since we all know Ferrari's philosophy: they see the World Driver's Championship as far more important than the one they actually compete in!

 

[DHCanary]

AG, which bookmaker are you with? I know one already paid out on Vettel winning!

 

[u408379965]

A tenner at 5/2 with William Hill. They haven't paid out yet.

 

[Canary f1]

It's hard to see Alonso or Webber doing it now. Webber just seems incapable of beating his team mate. Alonso is a loooong way behind, not impossible but highly unlikely.

I can't see Button beating Hamilton over the course of a whole season as generally Button needs Hamilton to have a bad race to finish ahead of him and that most likely wouldn't be enough anyway.

Hamilton is still in the fight (JUST), if Vettel wins in Canada then it's over in my opinion. Hamilton must win there to keep the WDC fight alive. I think he will too. He is strong in Canada and the MP4-26 looks as fast if not faster on race pace now.

 

[DHCanary]

Not seen you about in a while CanaryF1, good to have you back!

 

[cosicave]

AG, which bookmaker are you with? I know one already paid out on Vettel winning!

That's ridiculous!

 

[DHCanary]

Apparently it was Paddy Power, there's an article about it here. I do hope he loses it now just so they have to pay out to another load of customers!

 

[di Fredsta!]

Well Hamilton is 10:1 and Alonso is 16:1
Fiver on either one wouldnt do harm!

 

[GUEST]

Button is only 9 points behind Hamilton, and was incredibly unlucky in Monaco, and the extra points would have put him above him, so I'd say its unfair to rule Button out yet. I think its going to be tough to beat Vettel, he's in a great position, but it just takes a string of good results to close the gap. For example if we see a couple of Mclaren 1-2's in the next few races, and Vettel fails to finish one, then that gap can shrink rapidly. Vettel can't possibly have everything go his way all season, he just needs traffic at the wrong time, a puncture, mechanical failure, or any one of a 100 other things that could go wrong to happen, and we end up with a much closer championship. Equally Webber is in the same machinery, and really took the fight to Vettel last season, if Webber wins 3 races on the bounce, it suddenly looks less comfortable for Vettel, and we still have 13 or 14 races left.

but button needed lewis to have alot of bad luck in monaco.this seems to be the only way button can get the better of lewis.theres every chance lewis would have outqualified button in monaco,which would have seen lewis get more points than button from a race yet again.dont forget it was 4-1 to lewis in quali and races before monaco.
so unless lewis continues to have bad luck,its unlikely button will be able to challenge vettel.lets see if he proves me wrong.
also ppl seem to have forgotten how well lewis drove in china and spain.monaco and malaysia are his only disapointing races this season.he learnt from his mistake in malaysia,and i'm sure he will have learnt from what happened in monaco.

 

[Big Ern]

^^ erm, it was Button that had bad luck in Monaco, not Hamilton, crashing isn't bad luck, it's bad decision making. You could say he had bad luck in qualifying when it got red flagged, but he would've had a banker if he hadn't made a mistake the previous lap.

 

[cosicave]

^^ erm, it was Button that had bad luck in Monaco, not Hamilton, crashing isn't bad luck, it's bad decision making. You could say he had bad luck in qualifying when it got red flagged, but he would've had a banker if he hadn't made a mistake the previous lap.

Button certainly had bad luck in Monaco - and a bucket load of it! Loads of stuff happening that was beyond his control and not a single error of his own. In my opinion, he was the best driver on the day in the purest sense and very much in accord with the old adage "may the best man win" (which is my personal philosophy for every single race and every single competition I ever see or take part in). However, I think the point Guest is trying to make is that Button needs Hamilton to have a poor result for whatever reason.

I'm inclined to say that this is not necessarily my opinion; I know what you're getting at Guest but it is too much of a simplification for me. I have deliberately avoided becoming embroiled in the plethora of Hamilton/Button debates because they don't really go anywhere other than to polarize opinion which tends to lead to inflammatory mud-slinging.

However, there is something I feel I should say now: These guys are simply different.
…Hamilton and Button have very different philosophies and it is to be expected that most people will align themselves to one or the other, simply according to taste.

As anyone interested will now be well aware, Button and Hamilton have very different driving styles. It is worth remembering that a driving style is in a sense, a natural extension of personality; Hamilton likes to live on edge: he finds it incredibly exciting to 'overcome' his car and he is the best exponent of this technique on the planet - bar none! The down-side of this mentality is that it takes immense self-control to consider things in the longer term because this simply does not come 'naturally' to him. For this reason, when it goes right, it usually looks like a spectacular achievement to an awe-struck public who, if they know much about driving, witness this guy doing things beyond mere mortals. They can see it happening!

Button has a very different approach to motor-racing. The very first thing on his mind is the big picture; the longer view; a far wider perspective: probably closely matched by Alonso (when he doesn't focus on minutiae). This is never likely to look spectacular in the same sense but it does not mean he is incapable of moves which leave people open-mouthed. This time though, it is likely to be for a slightly different reason: Hamilton inspires awe, even mesmerization in the spectator who can see what he is doing, whilst with Button, it is more likely a case of "how the hell did he do that?!".

The ideal racing driver would combine both of these opposite mentalities in the same human body. But people are simply not made like this; and thus tend to fall into one or other category.

Ultimately, these things aren't really worth arguing about. They are complimentary. And as a matter of interest, both of McLaren's drivers have become better due to the influence of the other.

 

[u408379965]

Hamilton likes to live on edge: he finds it incredibly exciting to 'overcome' his car and he is the best exponent of this technique on the planet

Button has a very different approach to motor-racing. The very first thing on his mind is the big picture; the longer view; a far wider perspective

Good post Cosi, and I think those two comments sum up both drivers in a nutshell. We all know Hamilton has the edge on JB in terms of raw pace, but Button is more astute tactically. People can argue that Button needs Lewis to have a bad race to finish above him, but it's kind of a moot point since Lewis does have off days. The fact that Button can keep in touch with Lewis over the course of a season is testament to his racecraft and consistency, and not due to bad luck befalling his opposite number.

 

[cosicave]

Good post Cosi, and I think those two comments sum up both drivers in a nutshell. We all know Hamilton has the edge on JB in terms of raw pace, but Button is more astute tactically. People can argue that Button needs Lewis to have a bad race to finish above him, but it's kind of a moot point since Lewis does have off days. The fact that Button can keep in touch with Lewis over the course of a season is testament to his racecraft and consistency, and not due to bad luck befalling his opposite number.

Exactly.

 

[BrightLampShade]

Hopefully Newey has forgotten to make the cars ECU waterproof and the car just won't move on Sunday. Then some one will have a chance at beating Vettel.

 

[random92]

Vettel is going to win, unless he has some bad luck, and the others catch up significantly, very quickly. If the rest have a hope, they need both Mclarens and both Ferraris ahead of the red bulls this weekend, and it has to be the same guy winning over and over again, only way to make that gap up. A few races like that, and we've got a season again. Also, if Mercedes could get faster than Red Bull too, it'd be even easier. BUT, pigs are probably going to fly before this scenario happens

 

[cosicave]

Vettel is going to win, unless he has some bad luck, and the others catch up significantly, very quickly. If the rest have a hope, they need both Mclarens and both Ferraris ahead of the red bulls this weekend, and it has to be the same guy winning over and over again, only way to make that gap up. A few races like that, and we've got a season again. Also, if Mercedes could get faster than Red Bull too, it'd be even easier. BUT, pigs are probably going to fly before this scenario happens

Yes.

It really is a bit too much to expect. But for now at least there is an outside possibility, however slim.

 

[genjigonzales]

Yes.

It really is a bit too much to expect. But for now at least there is an outside possibility, however slim.

I'd say anorexic. There's always a chance Vettel will crash and break his leg (not that I would wish that on him, just referencing 1999) but, even with a much weaker car, Button managed to protect his six-wins-from-seven in 2009, and that was when second place was awarded 80% of the points for a victory. Canada will be the confirmation, I think, but it's all over now bar the calculations. It's not just down to a superior car either: Vettel has an almost impenetrable confidence about him this season. None of the rest of the top five have this.

Alonso seems resigned to the fact that his team (mainly in the design of the car) has had too slow a start to catch up now. I doubt he's lost any faith in his own abilities but he's a realist. Webber just looks beaten. Hamilton looks flustered and ragged. Button still seems cheerfully optimistic but I wouldn't expect anything else after the career he's had in F1, with so many years spent in the doldrums.