It looks increasingly unlikely with every race. He doesn't just have his talent and THAT car but he also has luck on his side right now. Pre-season, I thought he would run away with it this year because he was building up a momentum and had suddenly matured considerably after Spa and his "crash kid" moment. BUT, there are some slim possibilities: McLaren now have a car which can challenge the Red Bull. However, Lewis needs to calm down and make the most of it. Also, he and Button look like taking big points from each other which won't help for the WDC. Ferrari have Alonso who, against all odds, came through the second half of last season to almost take the title. For this reason, he can't be written off. The rules. There is still the question of curbing the use of exhaust-blown diffusers being introduced soon, after Canada possibly, but this may or may not happen. It is presumed that this will adversely affect the power of the Red Bull, although how much this may be true is as yet unknown. These are the most obvious factors which may prevent Vettel running away with the title. Clutching at straws? Probably yes but I hope these factors or others can at least make the title race more of a meaningful fight.
If Vettle has a retirement or two over the next few races then it is certainly possible, but if he keeps out of trouble the car always seems to have the speed to keep him at the front so its hard to see him being caught unless he has problems.
wow, I seriously can't believe everyone has written the McLarens and Ferrari out despite the huge amount of ground they've caught up on the tracks most suited to the RB in the last month.
Vettel's had an amazing start to the season and I doubt he will lose that lead, given the speed of his car. The only potential threats are the McLaren drivers and Alonso. Max Whiplash has already explained that, but I'll just add that McLaren have the most development potential, and seem to have better mechanical grip than Red Bull. That alone makes the McLaren drivers the biggest threat to Vettel - and it's still realistic to believe that a McLaren driver could win the WDC. Don't forget that McLaren arguably had the fastest car at Spain - a track where Red Bull were expected to dominate. As for Alonso, anyone who want's to rule him out - is foolish. It's unlikely, but not impossible.
Schumacher had a pretty comanding lead in 2000 but two consecutive retiremements in Austria and Hockenheim really put the cat amongst the pigeons so it certainly can happen. Ferrari and McLaren had 3 circuits in a row in which to capitalise upon favourable competitiveness compared to RBR. One oportunity has passed in Monaco, what happens in Canada and Valencia could well define the rest of the season. He certainly has not got it in the bag yet
McLaren now have a car that can fight for wins so its not over yet. Its also just a matter of time before Vettel has a bad/unlucky race. Everone has a few at some stage during the season. On the other hand hes got something that every driver wants: the fastest car, the most reliable car, full support from the team and a team mate that puts you under no pressure at all. I can see Lewis being the closest threat to Seb because despite the penalties, bad strategy, bad pit stops and bad luck hes still 2nd in the championship. The problem for him is that McLaren wont back one driver like Red Bull and Ferrari do. So it wont be easy for Lewis and Jenson thats for sure. If Ferrari get their act together then Fernando has a decent chance with the team support and Massa moving out the way (it will happen again). The problem is that hes miles behind in points and that car doesnt look like its going to be fighting for victories (Monaco being a very unique track, so ignore that one), Spain was a much better bench mark. Looking forward to Canada though.
Hoping for vettel to have a retirement doesn't mean the others behind will be impenetrable, it's also a matter of time when either Lewis or Alonso will retire. It's a long way to go yes, but vettel is in control and really doesn't have to risk anything at the moment which makes retirements less likely.
From the posts so far, it seems we've all written Webber off. Last season he was taking a lot of points from Vettel, who also had reliability and maturity problems too. This year he has had none of these issues and is running away with it. I wonder though how long his run of luck will continue. I think Miggins is right to highlight the gains made by McLaren and Ferrari but I wonder if it's too late to make enough of a difference, especially thinking of 2009 and how Button's cushion built up in the first half of the season was enough to hold off his rivals for the title.
Mclaren need to sort their pit stops out because they have lost places and points in the constructors battle. Monaco is an example as is Turkey. Red Bull had one bad pit stop in Monaco. I can't see anyone beating Vettel tbh, he is just on a great run of form and confidence. The only drivers I see challenging are Alonso and Hamilton. Button does not get everything out of the car like these two, he concentrates on finding perfect balance etc. It's not over yet but by Spa or Monza it could be.
Button is only 9 points behind Hamilton, and was incredibly unlucky in Monaco, and the extra points would have put him above him, so I'd say its unfair to rule Button out yet. I think its going to be tough to beat Vettel, he's in a great position, but it just takes a string of good results to close the gap. For example if we see a couple of Mclaren 1-2's in the next few races, and Vettel fails to finish one, then that gap can shrink rapidly. Vettel can't possibly have everything go his way all season, he just needs traffic at the wrong time, a puncture, mechanical failure, or any one of a 100 other things that could go wrong to happen, and we end up with a much closer championship. Equally Webber is in the same machinery, and really took the fight to Vettel last season, if Webber wins 3 races on the bounce, it suddenly looks less comfortable for Vettel, and we still have 13 or 14 races left.
Both Ferrari and McLaren can beat the RedBull in races but winning the WDC is going to take some going. Still possible for either Alonso or Hamilton - but Hamilton, for example, will need to win at least 8 races of the 13 or 14 races left.
Vettel in his Red Bull is like a horse that wins on the bridle nearly every time, unless one of the other teams has a miraculous upgrade then he has it sown up. Can't say I'm too happy about that but these things happen in sport, the other teams need to up their games for next season
the main thing Vettel has in his favour is that Ferrari & McLaren might take points off each other as much as they do off Vettel
Also with Webber and Button. People say they can take points off Vettel. True , but they are just as able to take points off Hamilton/ Alonso and if you look at the table so far. They already are.
Alonso, Hamilton and Button can realistically challenge Vettel for the title. We've only had a third of the season so far, and it's far too early to call.
