Somewhere on this Forum I mentioned that in-breeding to Danehill was looking a negative way to go. I'd now like to look at another bit of in-breeding and compare it. We are all aware of Northern Dancer and then his sons Sadler's Wells and Danzig, and so on. We know Galileo (Sadler's Wells) is the dominant sire of the last 10-12 years. We know his most illustrious son Frankel is already making a name for himself. I can't imagine a previous time when one sire line was so dominant. To Frankel you can add Nathaniel, and now Australia and soon Gleneagles and Churchill. but Sadler's Wells also sired Montjeu who in turn sired the distinctly useful sire Camelot. It goes on.
Then you have Danzig who is almost more prolific than Sadler's Wells. Danzig's key sons were Danehill and Green Desert. Here are sons, grandson and great grandsons of Danehill : - Danehill Dancer (Choisir, Fast Company, Mastercraftsman), Exceed and Excel (Excelebration), Dansili (Zoffany, Harbinger, Bated Breath), War Front (Declaration of War), Kodiac, Fastnet Rock, Redoutes Choice, Duke of Marmalade Rock of Gibraltar, Holy Roman Emperor and Champs Elysses; and of Green Desert:- . Oasis Dream (Arcano, Showcasing, Power), Invincible Spirit (Kingman, Lawman, Charm Spirit, Territories, Zebedee), Cape Cross ( Sea the Stars, Golden Horn, Awtad ) and Desert Style (Paco Boy [Golden Galileo]). I’m sure I’ve missed plenty but you get the picture.
So it is not surprising we are getting some significant in-breeding. Perhaps the closest I’ve seen recently is Enable, who is by Nathaniel (grandsire Sadler’s Wells) out of a Sadler’s Wells mare: so 3 X 2. What is surprising is that the only inbreeding to Northern Dancer is 4 X 3, with no other crosses, so no Danehill and definitely no Danzig (the world of Danzig sires are her lobster as Arthur Mullard would say). That is rare these days! Now we have another filly, Annapurna, who is inbred 3 X 3 to Sadler’s Wells (she does have a Danehill line through Frankel’s dam) and she is likely to run in the Oaks. Meanwhile the Derby favourite, Sir Dragonet, is also 3 x 3 inbred to Sadler’s Wells (also no Danehill but a line of Danzig through Oasis Dream)..
Now this is little evidence that inbreeding to Sadler’s Wells is a positive thing, but it’s a good start. Danehill has 5 years start on Sadler’s Wells so we’ll see more of this type of inbreeding as time goes on. People are always looking for nicks and maybe this is one to follow. A nick established early in Galileo’s career was with mares by Danehill (3 x 4 in-breeding to Northern Dancer) and it reached its summit in Frankel.
However there is plenty of data saying in-breeding to Danehill is sub-optimal. This is a concern for many breeders, no more so than to Australian breeders for whom Danehill is the cornerstone of their breeding.
The history of breeding shows periods when inbreeding was the in-thing being followed by periods when everyone was seeking out-crosses. It is generally held that too much in-breeding is eventually injurious to the breed. So if this Danehill effect is real what is causing it? I have a theory but almost impossible to test it, and certainly beyond my means. My theory rests on the basis that Danehill, himself, is inbred to Northern Dancer’s dam Natalma. So Danehill’s grandsire is Northern Dancer (out of Natalma) while Danehill’s granddam is out of Natalma. So Danehill was inbred 3 x 3 to Natalma (being inbred to a mare is not as common as inbreeding to sires, but is known).
It follows that when you inbreed to Danehill you immediately have 4 crosses of Natalma. Maybe that is too much. There is an obvious problem with the theory and that is that mating a Danehill mare to a Northern Dancer sire line (but with 2 crosses of Northern Dancer and hence Natalma) is being carried out all the time, so how damaging is that? The answer is I don’t know. I do know that Harbinger had 3 crosses of Natalma in the first 5 generations, 4 if you go to the 6th and 5 if you go to the 7th. What one can’t judge is how many generations does it take for a possible negative effect to fade.
So I’m certain inbreeding to Sadler’s Wells will occur more in the future. We’ll watch for it. This Danehill thing? Will it impact some sires (for example Frankel) and make Danzig’s Green Desert line more popular (Invincible Spirit/ Kingman and Sea the Stars are already doing a good job). Or will No Nay Never, American Pharoah and Justify be so successful they'll make us forget all about these worries? Watch this space.
