Bustino's Breeding Bits

[Bustino74]

This filly has shown enough to get a shot at a Gp3 at Deauville tomorrow. Pleasingly Roger Varian keeps Jefferson Smith on her. He's ridden her in all her starts so far.

Sound Angela was up to her old starting tricks, and the race was lost at the gate. She then proceeded to mow down the field before running out of track. This looks a good filly, and she can easily win at this level (if she can start on terms). She can also get further.

 

[Bustino74]

Eldar Eldarov was a worthy winner of the Leger. His breeder is of course Kiersten Rausing, who sold him as foal for a measly €110,000 (he was resold as a yearling for the equivalent of £480,000). His dam, All at Sea (Sea the Stars), is a half-sister to Alpinista's dam Alwilda (Hernando), both mares being daughters of Albanova, from her incredible A family. It seems to be going from strength to strength.

 

[Ron]

Sound Angela was up to her old starting tricks, and the race was lost at the gate. She then proceeded to mow down the field before running out of track. This looks a good filly, and she can easily win at this level (if she can start on terms). She can also get further.

No excuses Bustino. She was only hampered start, bumped over 3f out, short of room over 2f out, switched left but denied clear run 1 1/2f out, soon switched back inside, Shouldn't have made any difference . Entered Wednesday, Yarmouth EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (1m2f) and Saturday, Gowran Park Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Group 3) (1m1½f)

 

[Bustino74]

No excuses Bustino. She was only hampered start, bumped over 3f out, short of room over 2f out, switched left but denied clear run 1 1/2f out, soon switched back inside, Shouldn't have made any difference . Entered Wednesday, Yarmouth EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (1m2f) and Saturday, Gowran Park Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Group 3) (1m1½f)

She was the best horse in the race I feel, and deserved some luck. Been in my tracker since October.

 

[Bustino74]

Yesterday's German St. Leger winner Tunnes highlights, yet again, the fertile family of Allegretta, his 4th dam. She was dam of 2000G winner King's Best but more important the dam of Arc winner Urban Sea, who in turn was dam of Galileo and Sea the Stars, both supersires as well as excellent racehorses. Tunnes is a half-brother to last year's Arc winner Torquator Tasso.

 

[Bustino74]

Missed Tenerife Sunshine's win yesterday. A Lope de Vega colt out of a Sea the Stars mare called Yarrow. Who, in turn, is a half-siter to 2000G winner Golan and Derby 2nd Tartan Bearer. The Mark Johnston colt looks more like Tartan Bearer than Golan, being a chestnut with white feet and face. He doesn't share TB's white belly.
I thought Tenerife Sunshine looked attractive but seems to have a bit of growing to do. The judges seemed to like the 2nd but Tenerife Sunshine may have more scope.
Ballymacoll sold Yarrow as a 5yo mare in foal to Kodiac for 625,000gns.
Terrible name for a racehorse though.

 

[Bustino74]

Looking at the 3rd Crop Sires Table (GB + Ire) it probably surprises no-one that Mehmas tops the list in terms of Winners and wins (he does come 2nd to New Bay on prizemoney). Minzal was probably his biggest flagbearer this year, and his son goes to stud next year. However, there are few things that can be said.
He has finished top of the list despite having a fairly weak 2yo year. After his first crop season he not only topped the FSS list but the 2yo list (beating Kodiac). He was also 2nd crop sire leader and 2yo champion sire too (beating Kodiac). It was obvious he was a formidable sire of 2yos, even if he did have big crops. This year he is only 24th in the list of 2yos (Kodiac leads on winners, though Havana Grey on wins). His problem was that his 3rd crop was much smaller, and he only has had 29 runners (of which 11 have won) so far.
So coming top of the 3rd crop list shows that his horses train-on: a great attribute. His first crop raced in 2020, was born in 2018 and conceived in 2017. So by the time his first crop advertised his strengths as a sire he'd have covered his 4th crop. After his 2020 result his fee went up and presumably the quality of his harem. It is his 5th crop (to race as 2yos in 2024) that will show if this sire can transition to a higher level of results. This year's 3rd crop results must give his patrons optimism.

 

[Bustino74]

Seems pretty certain that Flightline is the best racehorse on dirt in the World and quite probably the World's best racehorse. He is interesting in that he is not a Northern Dancer line colt. He will be a Nearco line sire, as is Northern Dancer, but at least he's something different.
He's a good outcross for Northern Dancer infused mares as he has no ND in his first 4 removes and only one in his first 5 (through Nijinsky). In his 6th remove he has 2 lines of ND.
In fact you'd consider him very outbred as his nearest inbreeding is 4 x 5 x 5 to Mr Prospector.

Will we see much of his produce in Europe? Difficult to say, but it's likely Coolmore, Godolphin and Juddmonte will want to tip their toes into this gene pool.

 

[OddDog]

Seems pretty certain that Flightline is the best racehorse on dirt in the World and quite probably the World's best racehorse. He is interesting in that he is not a Northern Dancer line colt. He will be a Nearco line sire, as is Northern Dancer, but at least he's something different.
He's a good outcross for Northern Dancer infused mares as he has no ND in his first 4 removes and only one in his first 5 (through Nijinsky). In his 6th remove he has 2 lines of ND.
In fact you'd consider him very outbred as his nearest inbreeding is 4 x 5 x 5 to Mr Prospector.

Will we see much of his produce in Europe? Difficult to say, but it's likely Coolmore, Godolphin and Juddmonte will want to tip their toes into this gene pool.

Not much chance of him going hurdling then?

 

[Bustino74]

Not much chance of him going hurdling then?

Well you never know. I'm sure when the 1961 Leger winner, Aurelius, was sent to stud that very few people would have offered odds that he'd be the first horse to win at Ascot on the flat, over hurdles and over fences. Well he did. In fact he was a very useful hurdler finishing 2nd in the Gloucestershire Hurdle and the next year's Champion Hurdle (though disqualified). Just goes to show how much talent is wasted on the breeding sheds.

 

[Bustino74]

Dreamloper is sold for $2,7000,000 at Keeneland. A nice return on a 45,000gns purchase of the mare, and a nomination to Lope de Vega.

 

[Bustino74]

Dreamloper is sold for $2,7000,000 at Keeneland. A nice return on a 45,000gns purchase of the mare, and a nomination to Lope de Vega.

Dreamloper was the 2nd foal of Livia's Dream, and the mare is still only 13 and she is in foal again to Lope de Vega. Olivia Hoare has two half-sisters to Dreamloper. She also owns an Intello filly called Maud Gonne Spirit, whose dam is Livia's Dream's granddam. Surprisingly she's due to be sold at the December Sales. Trousering the 2+ million dollars may make her hang on to this one for a while at least.
It will be interesting to see who she sends Livia's Dream to next year. New Bay could be a good choice or maybe, because of Lope de Vega, to another son of Shamardal.

 

[Bustino74]

Well you never know. I'm sure when the 1961 Leger winner, Aurelius, was sent to stud that very few people would have offered odds that he'd be the first horse to win at Ascot on the flat, over hurdles and over fences. Well he did. In fact he was a very useful hurdler finishing 2nd in the Gloucestershire Hurdle and the next year's Champion Hurdle (though disqualified). Just goes to show how much talent is wasted on the breeding sheds.

They must be sending geldings to the breeding sheds these days as there's hardly any running today.

 

[Bustino74]

The world has turned upside down. Good ground is now Bad ground. The poor horses can't run on it anymore, trainers are not prepared to risk their prized horses on it. Newbury is watering in late November.
The reason for this is that breeders are now producing horses that cannot handle good ground, and as softened ground becomes the norm so the trend is self-reinforced. I have been banging on about this on here for more than 10 years. They cannot handle good or firmer ground because they are not as tough as their forebears who had to be able to run on any ground they were presented with. There were no watering systems to artificially change the going. The going term Hard has not been seen in the last 40 years since watering systems became commonplace. Maybe it shouldn't. But....
Maybe the solution is to get rid of turf and accept we want not to know who the best natural racehorse is but who can run fastest on easy going.

 

[OddDog]

What happened on Saturday at Ascot made horse racing a laughing stock. I don't know what the solution is and I clearly understand that connections hold the wellbeing of their horses as the number 1 priority. But for those paying entrance money and (to a lesser extent) those watching on TV it was just pathetic. Remember Kribensis winning the Triumph Hurdle on good-firm, with the grass of Prestbury Park looking more brownish-yellow than lush green?

 

[Bustino74]

I'll use the A word again. Arkle won on good to firm several times. He ran 35 times in a shortened career.

A racing friend of mine used to say that if the going wasn't soft or worse at Cheltenham in mid-January then soft wouldn't be in in the March meeting's going description: not now. It will be good to soft at the very least in March. Messing with the natural order of things will always bring about the wrong outcomes.

 

[Ron]

I'll use the A word again. Arkle won on good to firm several times. He ran 35 times in a shortened career.

A racing friend of mine used to say that if the going wasn't soft or worse at Cheltenham in mid-January then soft wouldn't be in in the March meeting's going description: not now. It will be good to soft at the very least in March. Messing with the natural order of things will always bring about the wrong outcomes.

Remember Crudwell? 108 races between 1950 and 1960. Won 50 and placed in 32

 

[SaveTheHumans]

It's like you said in a post on a daily thread Bustino, it is a generational thing. Developed world has lost it's marbles and with pressure from welfare groups etc over the years it has heightened the awareness surrounding it, it also gives trainers a nice and easy option out of taking a risk and potentially allowing the horse to have tired legs.

I am not condoning ever risking an animals welfare but to go back to your original point, it is definitely a huge change in the breed if the horses are being injured with such severity they can't run on good ground ever.

 

[Bustino74]

The racing world I first connected with in the mid '60s was the other way round. Then the question was when the going is soft or worse, who do you back? My father used to scour the midday Evening News (yes, the London Evening News used to have racecards with form and pedigrees in those days) and pick out any horse by Counsel or Privy Councillor, or out of a Counsel mare, then invest his shillings. Horses that would have rows of zeros would go in at amazing prices. It wasn't that these horses ran faster in soft going, it was that their competitors couldn't run in soft ground. So, this nasty soft, or heavy ground was slowing down these really decent horses. They had good conformations and perfect actions that allowed them to excel on the mainly prevailing good or good to firm ground. Of course some great horses could run on any ground and Mill Reef is a perfect example of this. These soft ground specialists generally had poorer conformations/actions and would break down if run on firm ground.
But it's bonkers now. We judge our champions by how well they run on soft ground. The Champions Day at Ascot in October is a farce, for example. But it's guiding breeders to use these Champions or their sires: so the farce will continue.

 

[OddDog]

There was a very thoughtful piece by Lydia Hislop on the sporting life website on the ground fiasco yesterday - well worth a read if you have 10 minutes.