Breeders' Cup 2015

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PNkt

PNkt

Well-Known Member
Jul 25, 2011
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Newmarket
Here’s the schedule for this weekend’s meeting with European interests flagged:

Friday (race times in GMT)

7.30 Juvenile Turf – SHOGUN & HIT IT A BOMB (both O’Brien), BIRCHWOOD (Fahey) & CYMRIC (Gosden)
8.10 Dirt Mile - WAR ENVOY (O’Brien)
8.50 Juvenile Fillies Turf – ALICE SPRINGS (O’Brien) ILLUMINATE (Hannon) & NEMORALIA (Noseda)
9.35 Distaff

Saturday

4.05 Juvenile Fillies
4.45 Turf Sprint
5.25 Filly & Mare Sprint
6.10 Filly & Mare Turf – LEGATISSIMO (Wachman), QUEEN’S JEWEL (Head), MISS FRANCE (Fabre) BAWINA (Laffon-Parias), SECRET GESTURE (Beckett) & TALMADA (Varian)
6.50 Sprint
7.30 Mile – MAKE BELIEVE (Fabre), MONDIALISTE (O’Meara), IMPASSABLE (Laffon-Parias), ESOTERIQUE (Fabre), KARAKONTIE (Pease) & TIME TEST (Charlton)
8.10 Juvenile – WATERLOO BRIDGE (O’Brien)
8.50 Turf – GOLDEN HORN (Gosden) & FOUND (O’Brien)
9.35 Classic – GLENEAGLES (O’Brien)

Hopefully I haven't missed any!

Personally I'll be having a small wager on NEMORALIA, I know how highly thought of she is and she didn't disgrace herself when second in a G1 on her first start on dirt. Interesting that they've opted for the Juvenile Fillies Turf rather than the Dirt version but at 8/1 I'm prepared to have a small each-way bet.

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Betting
 
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Seriously thinking about taking on short priced European favourites with The Pizza Man (Turf) and Stephanie's Kitten (F and M Turf). Ground should also suit Make Believe in the Mile.
 
May have been luck not a huge sample size, i found nice priced winners last year from discrepancies in the prices between American and European bookmakers. In particular William Hill compared to other English bookmakers. Where in the lesser races short price favorites in America were twice the price on Hills.

For tomorrow for the big races

7.30 I was very impressed by Hit it A Bomb last time
8.10 Liam's Map listening to a podcast and looking at replays, looks the bet of the meeting
8.50 I really fancied Illuminate but it looks like she might not like the ground, if so the American;s seem confident on Harmonize
9.35 Really i have no idea if i have a bet it will probably be blind backing Wedding Toast

Over the two days i will have a small Accum on which all should be hard to beat

Liam's Map 4/6
Songbird 11/10
Legatissimo Evs
Golden Horn 4/7
 
Looking at the ground report shown on Skysports this morning its looks more of a sludgey gloop than a dirt track!
With more rain forecast god only knows what the conditions will be on Friday and Saturday!
 
FoldingFTW said:
7.30 I was very impressed by Hit it A Bomb last time
Click to expand...

Hit It A Bomb is though drawn in the car park (14 of 14). Not saying he won’t win but that berth is going to make it so much tougher for him.

Similar sentiments apply re Time Test who the ‘county set’ have had so, and I do mean so, much success with this term (12 of 12 in the ‘Mile’). With Ryan atop though am hoping that he can defy such a poor draw and bring the bounty, back to the county.
 
The only serious punt I was considering,Shogun in the Juvenile Turf,has been scuppered by the weather..this one has already proven he can't handle soft.

I was planning to go racing racing on Saturday and be back in the ale house for the first but unfortunately we're in a different time zone this year.

Much prefer Pacific timings v GMT.
 
Dexter said:
The only serious punt I was considering,Shogun in the Juvenile Turf,has been scuppered by the weather..this one has already proven he can't handle soft.

I was planning to go racing racing on Saturday and be back in the ale house for the first but unfortunately we're in a different time zone this year.

Much prefer Pacific timings v GMT.
Click to expand...

Totally agree - will have to dash back from Vicarage Road on Saturday to be in the boozer by the fourth if I'm lucky!
 
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Re the going descriptions, don't forget that when the track officials are calling the turf "Soft" it is American soft, not European soft. I caught a discussion on ATR last night which said American "soft" is more like our good to soft.
 
PNkt said:
Re the going descriptions, don't forget that when the track officials are calling the turf "Soft" it is American soft, not European soft. I caught a discussion on ATR last night which said American "soft" is more like our good to soft.
Click to expand...
I cannot remember where but I have recently read that the Americans do not use the term 'heavy' in their description of turf going. Soft could therefore mean, in UK terms, from good to soft to heavy.
 
The turf track at Keeneland is on a sand base which drains very well. If, as forecast, they stay dry between now and Saturday the ground will dry up a great deal from where it is right now. The videos I've seen on Twitter this afternoon of GH's morning work show he is kicking the top off at the moment, so definitely erring towards soft.
 
FoldingFTW said:
May have been luck not a huge sample size, i found nice priced winners last year from discrepancies in the prices between American and European bookmakers. In particular William Hill compared to other English bookmakers. Where in the lesser races short price favorites in America were twice the price on Hills.
Click to expand...

William Hill have a sports book in Las Vegas, so it is not inconceivable that they are able to play their American liabilities off against their European ones when pricing the races up. Plus the bookies on this side of The Pond know that suckers over here are always going to back the European horses to the exclusion of the home team despite the European form being almost worthless as the courses are different and the races are run differently.
 
The state of the ground may be good grounds for leaving the Breeders’ Cup alone.

In the Juvenile Turf, neither Cymric nor Hit It A Bomb have been helped by the draw, giving the impression that perhaps the best of the European raiders may be Richard Fahey’s Birchwood rather than Aidan O’Brien’s Shogun, a close six in the Lagardère. Of the home team Airoforce lines up unbeaten including a course and distance win last time and Todd Pletcher’s Azar is well drawn and good odds.

In the Dirt Mile, I see no reason why War Envoy will see anything but a rear view of front-runner Liam’s Map, who Todd Pletcher is running here in preference to the Classic, hence him being long odds on.

In the Juvenile Fillies Turf, the draw has not been good to Illuminate or Nemoralia, so Alice Springs may fair best of the European contenders; however, the home team is not without chances if Harmonize is good enough from her moderate draw or Catch A Glimpse can step up from her Grade 2 win at Woodbine. Michael Tabor owned Thrilled is a big price from a plum draw – would be funny if she beat the Coolmore representative.

Could Godolphin’s American operation have the winner of the Dirt Distaff? Kiaran McLaughlin’s five year old mare Wedding Toast comes here looking for a four-timer and a Grade 1 hat-trick in a race that is not as competitive as the numbers.

At least the Friday card will give us a chance to assess how the Turf course appears to be riding.
 
I like Cymric in the juvenile turf race at 11/2 there tonight as well and I've plumped for Catch a Glimpse 13/2 in the juvenile fillies turf for Mark Casse. Had a look at this one's last few races and she was very impressive indeed.
 
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