APPRAISE selections for today
Here 1.50 Grand Vision 1pt EW 6/1 take the price
Uttox 3.40 Derwen Pride 4pts 9/4 take the price
Kemp 4.30 Cristal Gem 2.5pts back at SP
Good luck everyone
Hi Ardent, just wondering why you would advise backing at SP? I am an avid follower of Hugh Taylor and he said this
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Why don’t you provide results to SP as well as advised price?
In one respect this question is easy to answer – I wouldn’t dream of placing a bet at SP, so I haven’t kept records to SP at all since I started the column in March 2009. However, I think it is very likely punters would lose long-term backing the selections at SP given the clear and massive cuts in price once they are online. I have to make selections every day, and in many instances those selections are in weak markets and the prices are cut fairly dramatically, as anyone who follows the column will know. Moreover, as many punters will also be aware, if you back horses at bigger prices in the morning, the ones that are strong in the market in the ten minutes or so directly before a race (and therefore go off at shortish SPs) tend to win rather more often these days than the ones that drift out. Part of the point of the column is to point out horses that are the wrong price in the morning (and angles to help find those horses independently in the future); what happens thereafter is beyond my control.
It’s worth pointing out that I originally started publishing details of my selections at the bottom of the column only because a number of people had asked me to do so; moreover, I don’t think there aren’t many other individuals in the mainstream racing media who provide details of all their selections (the Timeform Jury team are one exception that I’m aware of, though there may be more). The more common strategy, even amongst subscription services, is to keep quiet about losing runs, then heavily advertise winning ones, whereas the results of all selections in this column are published. But the details of past selections aren’t published to try and sell readers anything – the column is, and will remain, free of charge.
Moreover, it’s questionable whether keeping records of my selections at SP would provide readers with a useful guide as to whether the type of analysis featured in the column works or not.
But the bottom line advice is simple; not only would I NOT recommend backing my selections at SP, I’d also advise not backing any horses at SP unless absolutely impossible to avoid – why would anyone want to strike a bet when they don’t know what the odds are?
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Do you plcae your APPRAISE selction online? If so you would get BOG i assume
your selection on Derwen pride returned at 11/4, and i guuess if you took 9/4 in shop, they wont pay BOG.
Just wondering more than nything - no criticism!
