Todays APPRAISE selections 1.55 Bangor Groves Pride about 9/4 Recommend SP 3pts win 2.25 Bangor Peckhamecho about 11/10 Recommend SP 4pts win 2.55 Newc L'Eminence Grise about 16/1 Recommend SP 1pt EW Be lucky!
1 winner Peckhamecho absolute steering job...+4.40.... 2 lost (-5.00) (-0.60) on day.. running total +2.10....see what tomorrow brings.
No APPRAISEqualifiers today November results posted tomorrow night. Good luck to anyone having a bet today.
APPRAISE selections for today Here 1.50 Grand Vision 1pt EW 6/1 take the price Uttox 3.40 Derwen Pride 4pts 9/4 take the price Kemp 4.30 Cristal Gem 2.5pts back at SP Good luck everyone
Hi Ardent, just wondering why you would advise backing at SP? I am an avid follower of Hugh Taylor and he said this ____ Why don’t you provide results to SP as well as advised price? In one respect this question is easy to answer – I wouldn’t dream of placing a bet at SP, so I haven’t kept records to SP at all since I started the column in March 2009. However, I think it is very likely punters would lose long-term backing the selections at SP given the clear and massive cuts in price once they are online. I have to make selections every day, and in many instances those selections are in weak markets and the prices are cut fairly dramatically, as anyone who follows the column will know. Moreover, as many punters will also be aware, if you back horses at bigger prices in the morning, the ones that are strong in the market in the ten minutes or so directly before a race (and therefore go off at shortish SPs) tend to win rather more often these days than the ones that drift out. Part of the point of the column is to point out horses that are the wrong price in the morning (and angles to help find those horses independently in the future); what happens thereafter is beyond my control. It’s worth pointing out that I originally started publishing details of my selections at the bottom of the column only because a number of people had asked me to do so; moreover, I don’t think there aren’t many other individuals in the mainstream racing media who provide details of all their selections (the Timeform Jury team are one exception that I’m aware of, though there may be more). The more common strategy, even amongst subscription services, is to keep quiet about losing runs, then heavily advertise winning ones, whereas the results of all selections in this column are published. But the details of past selections aren’t published to try and sell readers anything – the column is, and will remain, free of charge. Moreover, it’s questionable whether keeping records of my selections at SP would provide readers with a useful guide as to whether the type of analysis featured in the column works or not. But the bottom line advice is simple; not only would I NOT recommend backing my selections at SP, I’d also advise not backing any horses at SP unless absolutely impossible to avoid – why would anyone want to strike a bet when they don’t know what the odds are? ____ Do you plcae your APPRAISE selction online? If so you would get BOG i assume your selection on Derwen pride returned at 11/4, and i guuess if you took 9/4 in shop, they wont pay BOG. Just wondering more than nything - no criticism!
Quite a lot of the time BOG on line but i prefer for the sake of others who may not necessarily bet on line and out of fairness to return to recommended now.
APPRAISE The APPRAISE report card for November 2011 Well then, whilst one month proves absolutely nothing, I’m pleased that I can report a profit of 10.51 points for the month of November 2011. The month got off to a poor start (1 from 8) and I had to make some modifications to the system through the month but I’m settling in to a more consistent methodology now. I have to say it’s all very easy until you bring something like this in to the public domain but I’m confident that this method can show consistent month on month profits. Very note worthy is the fact that most of the selections have been very heavily backed to short priced odds. That’s why I think in most cases I need to hunt the markets early for the best value around. For example this morning we had 6/1 about Grand Vision (beaten a neck) returned 3’s, two days ago Ohio Gold is backed from 4/7 to 2/7, the day before Peckhamecho (the easiest winner you’ll see in your life) is backed from 11/10 to 8/11 and I could go on. I think Derwen Pride (today) bucked the trend a little bit being returned 11/4 from 9/4 early winning a head. The key for me is considering what the value is and getting that early if possible and more importantly applicable. Please note investments are scaled 1 – 7 points. There were no 6 or 7 point investments in November. Important also note that until the 13/11/2011 I have returned results to SP and this has a negative impact on the final profit for the month as I had 7/2 Ballycolin and better prices about lots of others including for instance 6/4 Hunters Light. For those that don’t back on line I think it’s fair to return to advised when advised and SP otherwise. Average Investment: 2.70 Points per selection Selections: 46 (5 E/W) Winners:17 Each Way Investments: Placed 4 from 5 (80% hit) (all profitable with the caveat that I backed Finellas Fortune at 7/1 E/W but returned 3/1 SP as before the 13/11/2011) Top Investments for the month - 4 and 5 pointers 10 Investments - 7 winners = 70% hit rate as below 5 Point Investment: 1 from 1 =100% 1st Super Duty 4/7 4 Point Investments: 6 from 9 = 67% Lost Sollim 1st Ballycolin 11/4 Lost Evens and Odds 1st Forgotten Gold 4/9 Lost Woolcombe Folly 1st Fingal Bay 4/5 Advised 5/4 1st Allow Me 10/11 Advised 8/11 1st Peckhamecho 8/11 Advised 11/10 1st Derwen Pride Advised 9/4 Best Return – Ballycolin 4 point win @ 11/4 (7/2 early) Losing streak - 4 Winning Streak - 3 I welcome all feedback and appreciate the comments that forum members have made so far. Selections with rolling Profit/Loss adjoined:- Sollim -4 Surrper -6 Laaheb -8 Ballycolin 3 Evens and Odds -1 Frith -3.5 Principal Role -6.5 Our Jonathan -9.5 Sardano -0.75 Percythepinto -0.02 Dorback -2.02 Cantabilly -4.02 Forgotten Gold -2.24 Tiptoaway -0.16 Garda Champetre -3.16 Finellas Fortune -3.56 Beauchamp Xiara -3.46 Residence And Spa -6.96 Hunters Light -5.51 Woolcombe Folly -9.51 Fingal Bay -4.51 Five Rivers -7.51 On My Way -7.21 Flying Pickets -3.21 Le King Beau 2.79 Scamperdale 0.79 Duke Of Lucca -1.21 Super Duty 1.29 Sovereign Secure -0.71 Blanc De Chine -2.71 Schumpters Lad -4.71 Overturn 4.29 Foxbridge 7.04 Mangonel 10.79 Golden Desert 8.29 Clinical 5.79 Mangonel 2.29 Allow Me 5.2 Poker Hospital 2.7 Peckhamecho 7.1 L'emminence Gris 5.1 Grove Pride 2.1 Ohio Gold 3.81 Grand Vision 4.01 Derwen Pride 13.01 Cristal Gem 10.51
Start of another month for APPRAISE after a successful November. First two bets of December 15.30 Market Rasen – Drumlang 4/6 4 points to win BOG 13.40 Wincanton – Duke of Lucca 11/4 3 points to win BOG Good Luck
Top stuff Ardent and well done. Best of luck over the long term, like my laying experiment, it is the long-term plan that counts and both show in profit at the moment. Terrific stuff mate well done
Thanks for all the good wishes. Todays APPRAISE Swincombe Lane 2.40 Exeter 3 points win 4/7 Bet 365 BOG.
Swincombe Lane 'nice' advised 4/7 returned 2/5f +1.71 on the day Running total December +14.28 Overall since November + 24.79
