81 Points.

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I think we need 19 points from our home games ( 6 wins and a draw) and 11 points from our away games. (ideally including wins against teams around us) to go up automatically.

That's the equivelant of:

10 wins / 5 losses (but ideally not losing to top 10 team) or
9 wins / 3 draws / 3 losses or
8 wins / 6 draws / 1 loss.

With 15 games to go, tick off the wins as they come in and hope that our competitors don't go on a storming run!
 
SaintJack:2308897 said:
Losing against Boro away? Should win that, along with Leeds and draws at Hull and Blackpool
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I like your optimism Jack I think we have a chance to pick up some points in these games also I put them down as defeats cause I am not trying to get to ahead of myself this is saints were talking about after all :D
 
OK, I've had my first go at the BBC Predictor for this season [this will be the last season we can use it, unless the Beeb re-introduce it] and it panned out that Saints managed 83 points and promotion in 2nd spot. I allowed Saints a few slip-ups, so I think it's fair.

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EDIT: Crap, that's not big enough...
 
TheSecondStain said:
OK, I've had my first go at the BBC Predictor for this season [this will be the last season we can use it, unless the Beeb re-introduce it] and it panned out that Saints managed 83 points and promotion in 2nd spot. I allowed Saints a few slip-ups, so I think it's fair.

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EDIT: Crap, that's not big enough...
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you can still make out what it says though. must of taken you aaaaages to complete though.
 
drylunch said:
you can still make out what it says though. must of taken you aaaaages to complete though.
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Yeah, but I've done it for the past few seasons, so I know what I'm letting myself in for. The trick not to look down the webpage, seeing all those fixtures panning out in front of you. if you do that, you're a goner..! I'll probably have another go in a month or so's time, to see whether my mood has altered on the prediction. Of course, there'll be less of those fixtures too.
 
TheSecondStain said:
Yeah, but I've done it for the past few seasons, so I know what I'm letting myself in for. The trick not to look down the webpage, seeing all those fixtures panning out in front of you. if you do that, you're a goner..! I'll probably have another go in a month or so's time, to see whether my mood has altered on the prediction. Of course, there'll be less of those fixtures too.
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haha cheers for the tip buddy :smile:

how accurate were you last season then?
 
My previous two-points-per-game target (ie 92 points) not only looks a long way off, but also probably more than will actually be required considering the number of teams involved and hence number of teams taking points off of each other. 85 points is my new target.

Take 19 out of 21 points at home (our next four home games in particular we should all be winning, no question), and that puts us on 75 points - leaving us needing 10 away points from 8 games. 3 wins and 1 draw or, more likely, 2 wins and 4 draws. Watford, Millwall, Palace and Posh are all winnable. Leeds, Hull, Blackpool and Boro are tough, but still drawable.

So long as we beat Derby this weekend, I think I'm going to start to believe (for the first time ever) that we can actually get automatic promotion.
 
drylunch said:
haha cheers for the tip buddy :smile: how accurate were you last season then?
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Hmm, I was pretty bloody accurate, IIRC. I think I still have the image somewhere. Watch this space for an edit. EDIT: Here you go. I think I did this around the same time last year:

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Blimey..! Got the points wrong a bit. Mind you, Saints did brilliantly in the run-in.
 
It's a brave person who does the predictor with this league. It is tighter than last year. The key thing for us is not to lose ground on the teams around us and this is out of our control largely as we aren't playing that many of those sort of teams. Billy will start scoring, the team will be like a well oiled machine and WE SHALL GO UP (Predictors - who needs them?!)
 
CRBA said:
I see Beddy T mathematics is still alive and thriving ;-)
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Didn't name the matches. If a draw had been predicted we'd get two extra points for a win and if he predicted a loss we'd get 3 extra points for a win, hence my two extra wins would be worth a minimum of 4 extra points and a maximum of 6 extra points. eat your heart out, Beddy.
 
i think we will be 2nd with one game remaining - on 79 pts and the 3-6 teams all able to get auto promotion (although tough on GD for some). WHU will win with 86 pts...

God, that was actually painful completing that predictor thing...

and - all results depend on what run of form the opponent is in when we play them - like Leeds will prob have new manager and that always screws us!
 
fran-MLs little camera said:
CRBA said:
I see Beddy T mathematics is still alive and thriving ;-)
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Didn't name the matches. If a draw had been predicted we'd get two extra points for a win and if he predicted a loss we'd get 3 extra points for a win, hence my two extra wins would be worth a minimum of 4 extra points and a maximum of 6 extra points. eat your heart out, Beddy.
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Ahh too true!
It was me...I miscalculated how many red wines I've just had! After last night, all I reckon is we may end up above West Ham.
 
SAINT KITCH said:
you've got us to win all our remaining home games, although posible i think a little unlikely as coming to the end of the season we are gonna be playing teams fighting for survival and for promotion. I think we are gonna need to pick up more away wins which we can do. Also i think our run in on paper is just about the easiest of the teams chasing promotion.
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Winning all our home games is a big ask. But so was going undefeated in the league for a year, and we managed that, so let's be optimistic. Derby will be the hardest of those home games, so if we can get the win on Saturday we can build a platform.

As for playing teams who are fighting for survival, I can't really see the logic in that, because if they were any good they wouldn't be fighting for survival. So we'll beat those teams cos they're rubbish.
 
I've always thought that 86 points should be the target, based on average points required in recent years to finish above whoever was in 3rd place...

Based on average points per game so far we'd be heading for 83 points.

HOWEVER, 2 thirds of our remaining fixtures are bottom half teams, and most of those are at home. Conversely 2 thirds of West Ham's games are top half fixtures. Cardiff have a fairly even spread, as do Birmingham.
 
Saint Alban:2311672 said:
I've always thought that 86 points should be the target, based on average points required in recent years to finish above whoever was in 3rd place...

Based on average points per game so far we'd be heading for 83 points.

HOWEVER, 2 thirds of our remaining fixtures are bottom half teams, and most of those are at home. Conversely 2 thirds of West Ham's games are top half fixtures. Cardiff have a fairly even spread, as do Birmingham.
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It may look the easier run in on paper but playing teams fighting relegation can be as hard as playing the teams around you.

The easiest games will be against mid table opposition who can't go up nor get relegated.
 
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