I would expect Lambourn to be rated 120 after the Derby. Lazy Griff on 114 and Tennessee Stud 112. I suspect the 2nd and third may pan out a couple of pounds shorter in reality than the figure they are given.
Pride Of Arras ran about five stone below his rating in the Derby and Damysus was even worse. Clearly didn't run their races but they were almost certainly overrated for the runs in the Dante.
Tmeform gave Pride Of Arras 119p for the Dante and rated The Lion In Winter 118+ after the race, yet both stank the place out at Epsom. They had said it was unlikely the former would not act at Epsom, based on his relations.
There seems a childlike faith that the trials will be the same standard every year but it is clear the quality will vary from year to year. Johnny Murtagh said in the build up that he was tipping Pride Of Arras because the Dante is always the best trial. There were six runners from this year's Dante in the Derby and they finished:-
11th
12th
14th
16th
17th
18th
Of the 18 runner field. I suppose they all just had an off day at the same time. Wonder what the official handicapper will make of it?
The Official Handicapper will have to take into account a number of factors. Firstly, he is unlikely to dramatically re-assess any of the also-rans.
Pride Of Arras (OR 115) and
Damysus (111) clearly did not handle the track, finishing the last two home. The favourite
Delacroix (116) clearly did not give his running. Secondly, since all those horses ran well on their last appearance, he will not drop their ratings based on one bad performance.
He will also have to take account of the Oaks and the Coronation Cup, run over the same course and distance the day before on, arguably, slightly easier ground. The Derby winner won in a time 0.41 seconds faster than the Oaks winner but 2.37 seconds slower than the Coronation Cup winner. As far as the running of these races is concerned, both the Derby and the Oaks were very similar in that the first two home were in the first three the entire race and none of the held-up horses really got involved.
I expect that
Jan Brueghel (117) will see his rating raised for victory over
Calandagan (124) as the handicapper can only base his changes on the actual result, not any opinion on how the race was run or the actions of the jockeys; the runner-up looks like a bit of a bottler. The older horses carried the same weight as the three year olds in both the Classics. So in making an assessment, he should also factor in what is effectively weight for age. The current weight for age scale here gives the three year olds a 15lb allowance from their elders. Also, of course, the fillies would have received a sex allowance against the colts.
As
Lambourn started the Derby with a rating of 109,
Lazy Griff rated 105 and late finisher
Tennessee Stud rated 109, it is difficult to see how
Lambourn would get raised to 120 if the Oaks winner
Minnie Hauk (rated 100) and runner-up
Whirl (rated 110, beaten a neck) were not similarly raised. The top rated runner prior to the Derby was
The Lion In Winter (117), who I think will be ignored; and in the Oaks
Desert Flower (117) ran four lengths third, possibly not handling the track. If
Desert Flower were taken as a yardstick and deemed to have run to 117 then
Minnie Hauk would be rated at least 123.
We will know on Tuesday when the revised ratings are published by the BHA.
