If he can just find two stone between now and Saturday. I would have been looking to try to find a handicap to run off his 86 rating. Could easily blow his mark in the Derby.
2025 Epsom Derby
- Thread starter Ron
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If he can just find two stone between now and Saturday. I would have been looking to try to find a handicap to run off his 86 rating. Could easily blow his mark in the Derby.
LG
Well-Known Member
https://www.racingpost.com/news/fes...good-for-two-day-derby-festival-a36xy0w5RnEC/
As I suggested, it might be properly soft by Saturday...
As I suggested, it might be properly soft by Saturday...
2nd, 3rd and 4th behind him at Chester have all won since and his winning time was good doing it from the front. Won’t have to find much to get involved and at very fancy odds he is worth a small e/w dabble.
Winners at 1/14 8/15 and 4/6 and one of the races was a two horse race.
The fact is that he has the lowest adjusted RPR in the field on 95 and also the lowest Topspeed figure of 83, so he has work to do on both form and on the clock. You never know though, Terimon was placed at 500/1 in Nashwan's year, so it can happen. Good luck with him.
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Dont know about near anyone else, but its tanked it down here in the north since about 3am and is still coming down (to a point the garden actually has. hint of green).. if it gets soft at Epsom, will they come stand side, in which case, do you want to be able to travel on the front end and then stay...
My reasons for ruling out RULING COURT.. he may act on it, but I have major doubts.
The dam Inchargeofme ran twice on firm in the states, 2 races the best placed 3 of 10 in a low grade 3. Ruling Court is a first foal. The second dam produced 5 offspring only 2 were winners. One the Johann Strauss (1 race win from 16 starts) and another O'Brien trained horse Mythical by Camelot (1 race win form 26 starts) peaked at 106 finishing 13th in Serpentines Derby but is now rated at 55 on the flat and races over hurdles.. Johann Strauss by High Chapparal was an out and out 7f/miler who was beaten 4 out of 4 on any going description with soft in it.
By Justify (as pointed out by Grendel) , he might handle it... but the relations would tell me a) he won't stay and b) won't be good enough.
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Looking through the breeding side. For me, the best bred horse in the race is Tennessee Stud. By winning everything Wooton Bassett, the dam In My Dreams was by Sadlers Wells raced twice well beaten but its dam Offshore Boom produced Rock of Gibraltar amongst other winners. Tennessee Stud looks certain to stay and handle the ground and 66 with Ladbrokes and Corals won't last.
The dam Inchargeofme ran twice on firm in the states, 2 races the best placed 3 of 10 in a low grade 3. Ruling Court is a first foal. The second dam produced 5 offspring only 2 were winners. One the Johann Strauss (1 race win from 16 starts) and another O'Brien trained horse Mythical by Camelot (1 race win form 26 starts) peaked at 106 finishing 13th in Serpentines Derby but is now rated at 55 on the flat and races over hurdles.. Johann Strauss by High Chapparal was an out and out 7f/miler who was beaten 4 out of 4 on any going description with soft in it.
By Justify (as pointed out by Grendel) , he might handle it... but the relations would tell me a) he won't stay and b) won't be good enough.
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Looking through the breeding side. For me, the best bred horse in the race is Tennessee Stud. By winning everything Wooton Bassett, the dam In My Dreams was by Sadlers Wells raced twice well beaten but its dam Offshore Boom produced Rock of Gibraltar amongst other winners. Tennessee Stud looks certain to stay and handle the ground and 66 with Ladbrokes and Corals won't last.
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... that might make me even more certain.
I think the spectre of City of Troy winning last year's Derby hangs over the chance of Ruling Court. Some people will say he was by Justify so Ruling Court should stay the Derby trip too. The difference is of course that CoT's dam was by Galileo and was a full sister to an Oaks winner. So, Tigerscave's analysis of RC's distaff is relevant. It is certainly not as strong as CoT.
At the same time people will say that the best form seen so far is the 2000G and the Irish version supports that. I agree it's the best form but is it that good? RC just got home from Field of Gold, another 25 yards and he'd have been beaten. If Shoemark had gone for the line at the same as Buick he'd have beaten RC. If he'd ridden him as Keane rode him in the Irish 2000G he'd probably have beaten him 3 lengths. How would people have viewed Ruling Court if that had been the result? He was hardly charging through the line.
So I don't think the Irish 2000G supports the strength of the 2000G form at all. I think it throws some doubt over it. I thought the analysis by Richard Hoiles on sectional times backs that up.
So I look at Delacroix and I think this horse that just beat Stanhope Gardens, is this the best AOB can field this year? Now he is by Dubawi and he's out of a mare that was one of the best racefillies of her time over a mile in the USA. She also came over and won the Queen Anne from Belardo and Lightning Spear (hardly the strongest Queen Anne field). So, I think 'Dubawi out of a specialist miler', is that a Derby pedigree? In defence Delacroix is a half-brother to a 14f Group 1 horse called Grateful. But she was by Galileo and wasn't fast enough to win a decent race over 12f. Delacroix just touched off Stanhope Gardens and as good as this beaten colt may be, surely Rossa Ryan must know if he's on the right one. Of course Stanhope Gardens may not have shown as well as Pride of Arras on the gallops this Spring, as obviously Stanhope Gardens did not come to hand as expected (why else would you run him in an 8f boat race just 2 weeks before the Derby). But I still think Ryan will know.
It's an incredibly open Derby, but I'm sticking with what has been the best Derby trial, the Dante. So my choice is Pride of Arras.
I'm hoping for a Beckett weekend with Revoir coming on loads after her Sandleford Priory 2nd. to win the Oaks with a similar cv to Sun Princess.
At the same time people will say that the best form seen so far is the 2000G and the Irish version supports that. I agree it's the best form but is it that good? RC just got home from Field of Gold, another 25 yards and he'd have been beaten. If Shoemark had gone for the line at the same as Buick he'd have beaten RC. If he'd ridden him as Keane rode him in the Irish 2000G he'd probably have beaten him 3 lengths. How would people have viewed Ruling Court if that had been the result? He was hardly charging through the line.
So I don't think the Irish 2000G supports the strength of the 2000G form at all. I think it throws some doubt over it. I thought the analysis by Richard Hoiles on sectional times backs that up.
So I look at Delacroix and I think this horse that just beat Stanhope Gardens, is this the best AOB can field this year? Now he is by Dubawi and he's out of a mare that was one of the best racefillies of her time over a mile in the USA. She also came over and won the Queen Anne from Belardo and Lightning Spear (hardly the strongest Queen Anne field). So, I think 'Dubawi out of a specialist miler', is that a Derby pedigree? In defence Delacroix is a half-brother to a 14f Group 1 horse called Grateful. But she was by Galileo and wasn't fast enough to win a decent race over 12f. Delacroix just touched off Stanhope Gardens and as good as this beaten colt may be, surely Rossa Ryan must know if he's on the right one. Of course Stanhope Gardens may not have shown as well as Pride of Arras on the gallops this Spring, as obviously Stanhope Gardens did not come to hand as expected (why else would you run him in an 8f boat race just 2 weeks before the Derby). But I still think Ryan will know.
It's an incredibly open Derby, but I'm sticking with what has been the best Derby trial, the Dante. So my choice is Pride of Arras.
I'm hoping for a Beckett weekend with Revoir coming on loads after her Sandleford Priory 2nd. to win the Oaks with a similar cv to Sun Princess.
At Leopardstown this evening the two runners from Delacroix/Tennessee Stud Derby Trial were both disappointing in a Listed contest. Acapulco Bay, was third as 2/1F and Rock Of Cashel was 9th. They had finished 4th and 5th in Delacroix's group 3 win. The win went to Zahrann who prevailed readily after winning an egg and spoon maiden at 1/3 last time. Both horses who ran in Delacroix's Derby Trial are going to be rated less than 100 after tonight and it doesn't leave the group 3 race looking a strong renewal.
On the same card Newmarket 2000 Guineas 6th Green Impact won his Listed race despite the stable being out of sorts with only 3 of their 42 runners on the last 14 days winning.
Good /good-soft in places at Epsom now.
On the same card Newmarket 2000 Guineas 6th Green Impact won his Listed race despite the stable being out of sorts with only 3 of their 42 runners on the last 14 days winning.
Good /good-soft in places at Epsom now.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing (as we all know). I am not sure that this will turn out to be a good Derby. The first two were also the first two in the Chester Vase, so they were both guaranteed to see out the trip. Fair play to Wayne Lordan setting out to make every yard on Lambourn (the time fractionally faster than The Oaks) but perhaps brickbats are due to many of the other jockeys for letting the front two or three go, thinking that they would come back to them. The third, fourth and fifth all came from the rear and had no chance with the front pair in the final two furlongs.
The favourite Delacroix ran abysmally, was never travelling after the first half mile and was never going to win from the back. The second favourite Pride Of Arras did not settle in the early stages but then took what seemed a good position in midfield until the descent towards Tattenham Corner where he totally lost his position and started back peddling. Having sweated up in the preliminaries, The Lion In Winter never looked comfortable at any stage – what price for the Triumph Hurdle? Tornado Alert clearly failed to stay and did not handle the track. Midak had been near the front rank but hung on the camber and possibly may not have stayed. Sea Scout ran very well for a long way up with the leaders. Just like Pride Of Arras, Dante second Damysus failed to settle, got a position in midfield and then also came unstuck going to Tattenham Corner. It may turn out that neither of the Dante first two handled Epsom.
I guess that Lordan has had his last ride on Lambourn as surely now Moore will be aboard wherever he runs. He won’t be given as much slack next time...
The favourite Delacroix ran abysmally, was never travelling after the first half mile and was never going to win from the back. The second favourite Pride Of Arras did not settle in the early stages but then took what seemed a good position in midfield until the descent towards Tattenham Corner where he totally lost his position and started back peddling. Having sweated up in the preliminaries, The Lion In Winter never looked comfortable at any stage – what price for the Triumph Hurdle? Tornado Alert clearly failed to stay and did not handle the track. Midak had been near the front rank but hung on the camber and possibly may not have stayed. Sea Scout ran very well for a long way up with the leaders. Just like Pride Of Arras, Dante second Damysus failed to settle, got a position in midfield and then also came unstuck going to Tattenham Corner. It may turn out that neither of the Dante first two handled Epsom.
I guess that Lordan has had his last ride on Lambourn as surely now Moore will be aboard wherever he runs. He won’t be given as much slack next time...
After the first 4 British classics I have to say Godolphin do the speed horses (milers) and Coolemore the middle distance horses. Been that way for a few years now to be honest. I guess its their differing breeding philosophies.
Coolmore have the balls to run their horses you can't win if you are not in.
Charlie Appleby looked pissed off when Desert Flower got turned over and had said he might pull Ruling Court out if there was more rain. The ground was officially better than yesterday as the rain stayed away until after the race.
I think it's pretty feeble pulling horses out on good to soft. There's only one Epsom Derby and if the horse isn't going well you can always let him come home in his own time. Pretty poor that a breeding operation like that can only summon two horses, both from the Guineas, and then pull one of them out.
Charlie Appleby looked pissed off when Desert Flower got turned over and had said he might pull Ruling Court out if there was more rain. The ground was officially better than yesterday as the rain stayed away until after the race.
I think it's pretty feeble pulling horses out on good to soft. There's only one Epsom Derby and if the horse isn't going well you can always let him come home in his own time. Pretty poor that a breeding operation like that can only summon two horses, both from the Guineas, and then pull one of them out.
A totally fair assessment of the difference between the two camps.. as Odd Dog rightly said maybe its Godolphins penchant for speed.
I think Lambourn is a very good Derby winner and probably the only true Group 1 animal in the field on that form. A very good ride from Wayne Lordan who knew his mount would stay every single yard of the trip. I'd love to see him try to blow an Arc field apart like that, not many could go those fractions and it would make for a great spectacle.
I’d go moderate renewal and half impressive winner. Can’t have it any better than that at present.
Time will tell - although I doubt we'll learn much in the Irish Derby. I wonder if he might take on Sovereignty later in the season? Might have been a triple crown winner if he'd gone for the Preakness.