I backed Cliffs of Moher a while ago but the closer we get to the race the less confident i am. Certainly wouldn't want to put a penny on him at the 7/4 i've just seen on Oddschecker.
Martyn Meade is feeling confident! https://www.racingpost.com/news/ecl...as-playful-meade-shooting-for-the-moon/291800
STANDING ROCK currently 13/2 with Hills for the distaff, will go off half those odds. Don't really rate the opposition much, good draw, form of debut win solid, any improvement and I'd expect her to take this
After reading Meade's comments and looking back at the form I think this Eminent has a great chance, especially with De Sousa on top this time. If Barney Roy improves for the step up he will take all the beating but that is a big question mark. Looking like the first 3 in the betting have it to themselves but none of them are at attractive odds
Increasingly i'm confident and prepared to put my neck on the line and say that the Eclipse won't be won by a three year old. Ulysses (backed at 12s) or Decorated Knight for me, dependent on who gets the run of the race
This should be a really clean race, on a fair track, on fast ground, perfect. Looks the best race of the flat so far in terms of plots, 3yos vs older, Guineas vs Derby, and in terms of quality for all that isnt saying much this season. Taj Mahal is a decent animal and should ensure a good gallop for a long way. Of the players, Id expect Decorated Knight to be closest to the pace with Barney Roy not far behind. Ulysses and Eminent behind those and Ryan doing his usual Spencer impression on Cliffs Of Moher. Of the apparent no hopers, id expect Salouen to be up there early, possibly in 2nd, with Lightning Spear mid to rear and Desert Encounter out the back. Desert Encounter could outrun the 50/1 and if there is going to be a crazy placer id say it will be him. Will be ridden to place and if Barney Roy doesnt stay, one or two dont turn up on the day etc etc its not impossible he could nick 3rd. Id say he is the only value left in the race, the shrewdies are long since on in this market, would be painful to take any of the current odds knowing what you could have got. Suppose you could argue that Barney Roy is still a fair price.
I'd prefer that Barney Roy had been kept to a mile for now. Surprised DK that you did not mention Decorated Knight. He's done little wrong this year and his POW form is out there and up with the best. I think Barney will just about get 10f and so win but it's not certain.
He was on my 3yo list 2 years ago and I agree, has done nothing wrong. Its just that he has been on the go since February and is effectively having his 6th start this season with plenty of travelling as well. With him being so closely matched with Ulysses on Ascot form and Ulysses only having his second run of his campaign there and being open to more improvement overall, I think you have to fancy Ulysses strongly to beat him this time but I could be wrong as Decorated Knight looks to be at the peak of his powers as a 5yo now.
I know that some around here only like official ratings when they concur with their own opinions, but given that six of the field are rated within four pounds of one another, Saturday’s race will hopefully be a competitive spectacle. As the handicapper never issues ratings for horses rated above 120 on a race-by-race basis, Barney Roy and Lightning Spear are the top rated pair, although one suspects that the three year old is actually better than 120 whilst the six year old ended 2016 on 120 and has not improved that mark. I expect that we are all assuming that Taj Mahal is a pacemaker, so if Barney Roy is a non-stayer they will definitely find him out. Whilst Decorated Knight may have more miles on the clock than Ulysses, I still see him as the more probable victor of the elders, fitting the same profile as the trainer’s 2013 winner. The three year olds may dominate the betting but I am not expecting a 1-2-3 for the Classic generation and the fact that the bookies appear to be happy to take on Cliffs Of Moher (and the Derby form generally) makes me think that I will be keeping my wallet in my pocket at 3:35 unless I really like the look of Peslier’s mount.
QM can you please explain to me what bookies 'are happy to take on' Cliffs of Moher? From looking there I see he's been trimmed to between 7/4 to 2/1 from a fair bit bigger at the start of the week? You're definition of bookies 'taking on' a horse's price must be the opposite of mine but hey you're the 'Economist', not me
I would guess beefy that the bookies are taking money and not shortening him up because they are happy to lay at the current odds. I don't actually know that but the race seems too open to have a 7//4 fav. I see a couple have pushed him out to 9/4, maybe to attract more money for him?
I don't see any 9/4 at all on oddschecker? 2/1 top price is all I can see with the majority of firms having trimmed him today. Not saying I think he's a worthy fav at that price, just intrigued how someone can describe bookies shortening a price as 'happy to take him on', to me you take a horse on by laying at bigger odds than you had him beforehand or you're competitors have it and I've seen zero evidence of any of that....
should be at least 9/4 the field on the day, unless its a mug punter horse everything aidan obrien and ryan moore seems to be much shorter than it should be and clearly mugs queuing up to keep backing them even at the wrong price they had one go off 6/4 in a 5/1 the field race at Ascot
At the start of the week there were sixteen still left in the race, including a few big names. Several have defected leaving nine, of which only five are realistic contenders, but the price of the favourite has not collapsed to something ridiculously short like 6/4, implying that the bookies are still happy to lay the horse. Perhaps money will appear on the day of the race from The Lads or other sources. Given the result in the Irish Derby, taking the Epsom finishing order at face value seems risky and if you swapped the trainers of the front two in the betting, the prices would probably swap as well. Bookies know about the herd instinct amongst punters – follow Ballydoyle.
And yet you could certainly argue that Highland Reel has been allowed to go to post massively overpriced twice this season. Almost a reverse-hype in fact.
Not sure about that, he was 10/1 and 20/1 for the Irish Champion and Arc last season, his overall profile shows hes beatable when not allowed to steal on sharp tracks, plus his run in Meydan first up and the vans late to Epsom thing. Wouldnt say 9/4 has been massively overpriced all things considered..
