Daily Racing Thread Thursday 28th. July 2016

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Goodwood so far 0-3, two seconds and a third, so here is what to ignore Thursday unless you are looking for Placepot bankers:

In the opener, Stargazer looks like one to avoid having not been seen since April and with no fast ground form. There used to be an adage about top weights in three-year-old handicaps and Ode To Evening cannot be discounted off a 6lb higher mark than when winning at Newmarket as he is one of four representing Mark Johnston. Behind that day were Dwight D and Banksea (weighed down by my money) and I cannot see grounds for thinking they will reverse the form. The one that I am most drawn to is SCARLET DRAGON, carrying a 6lb penalty for his facile latest victory, who will hopefully be ridden up with the pace again with the same result.

The Richmond Stakes looks like just a watching brief as Blue Point looked like a potential top two-year-old on debut and faces a couple of decent types in Mehmas and Intelligence Cross here. There certainly should not be a lack of pace as four of the quintet like to be in the van.

Big Orange and Quest For More meet again in the Goodwood Cup – there was only a neck in it last year but I would not like to call it this time as Roger Charlton’s gelding was hindered by my cash twelve months ago.

In the Lillie Langtry Stakes, is Pamona the next Simple Verse? She was an unfancied 25/1 shot when victorious at York on her first start for Ralph Beckett but that does look the best form on offer. Perhaps flashing her tail was just a personality quirk rather than a sign that she may not be reliable.

Need to find a pencil for the notebook in time for the 4:20 – some very interesting fillies from some of the big yards (but I hope Frankie wins on Amabilis).
 
Laughton in the lucky last -Kevin Ryan surely targeted race and with his charges in white hot form , at 8/1 a sporting bet -forum probably having its highest success rate this week -to a level stake must be huge !!
Good luck people -I am in work so won't see any action ......
 
I listened to a really interesting piece of analysis/debate on the Final Furlong Podcast this week about Superb Story between Kevin Blake and Rory Delargy. I wouldn't say either of them are jumps betting specialists so you've got to take what they say with a pinch of salt so i've added a little more analysis from myself but the gist is:

Superb Story now has to run against Irish horses that aren't hit with the 5lb uplift Phil Smith seems to impose on anything that crosses the Irish Sea. I doubt Superb Story would have won at Cheltenham with 12lb extra on his back although he won snug enough so you can't be certain of that.

Skelton is a master at targeting at horse - we saw it at Cheltenham in the County - we saw it with the Summer listed races a couple of weeks ago. He doesn't have many grade one horses at this stage of his career so he makes up for it by meticulously planning and plotting.

For me Superb Story has a favourites chance but he's half the price we all got at Cheltenham when we all knew exactly what the plan was. Dan and Harry were very open about its chances and obviously we have Chelsea's invaluable info. We don't have that info this time as there's been little
from connections and Chelsea doesn't have anything concrete. Incorporate the fact we have a horse with half a stone more on it's back, rivals not hindered by daft uplifts, we don't know how he takes to travelling and it's probably as competitive as Cheltenham. It all makes 9/2 seem pretty short to me.
 
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To compliment my Pyromanic bet ( which i'll be laying off anyway) i've also had a fat each way bet on last years winner, Quick Jack. He loves the place which is so crucial at Galway. His record at the Festival is two wins and a second. One of those wins was last years race Galway Hurdle and he destroyed them.

Watch that performance and he just ticks every box for me. Travels up with the pace in fifth which is what he'll need to do today and cantered over the field like a dream. He hasn't run over hurdles since which to me is to protect that mark. 5lb claimer on board who won the Galway Plate yesterday so he's riding with confidence and is a very talented young lad. I think he rides as well as a professional. Today's mark is 148 but with that claim he's only running from a 7lbs higher mark. I'm positive he'd have won last years renewal with that on his back. Now, there's a couple in this years race that could be too good - Pyromaniac may just be too well handicapped (same trainer) and Superb Story could be a marginal grade one horse. However, each way pays first 5 with Betfair Sportsbook at 14/1 and that is a cracking bet. That may actually a Boston Bob 4 star bet ****
 
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Morning, crew. Very decent Gooders for me thus far with 3 out of 4 wagers obliging. Think today though is much, much tougher and I will be keeping bets to a minimum level as a result.

The 2 that one will advise to the dear old regular readers though are STARGAZER (2.00) and LATHOM (5.30). The former really impressed me first time up this term with a nice success at Sandown Park. He has been raised 9 lbs for that success but as he does potentially look a Listed/Group performer you would expect Stargazer to be able to handle this increase and go very close in the old ‘card commencer’. Meanwhile, in the ‘lucky last’ Lathom really does looked to have been primed for this event by old boy Dave O’Meara. Last terms ‘Newbury Super Sales Sprint’ victor hasn’t been placed since that win but has dropped to a very attractive looking perch of 92 because of this. Most appealing off that mark plus this is the first time the word ‘firm’ has appeared in the going descriptor, for him, since that win. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more…

Am off to God’s own county, Devon, for 2 weeks from first thing tomorrow morning so until the next time. Take care…
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Morning, crew. Very decent Gooders for me thus far with 3 out of 4 wagers obliging. Think today though is much, much tougher and I will be keeping bets to a minimum level as a result.

The 2 that one will advise to the dear old regular readers though are STARGAZER (2.00) and LATHOM (5.30). The former really impressed me first time up this term with a nice success at Sandown Park. He has been raised 9 lbs for that success but as he does potentially look a Listed/Group performer you would expect Stargazer to be able to handle this increase and go very close in the old ‘card commencer’. Meanwhile, in the ‘lucky last’ Lathom really does looked to have been primed for this event by old boy Dave O’Meara. Last terms ‘Newbury Super Sales Sprint’ victor hasn’t been placed since that win but has dropped to a very attractive looking perch of 92 because of this. Most appealing off that mark plus this is the first time the word ‘firm’ has appeared in the going descriptor, for him, since that win. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more…

Am off to God’s own county, Devon, for 2 weeks from first thing tomorrow morning so until the next time. Take care…
Click to expand...

Have a nice time Barney, was it you driving around my neck of the woods with the number plate SBC 2 the last time you were here?
 
Good morning ladies and gentleman, I'm just about to go to sleep after a huge Wednesday session. Just 2 late bets as i'll probably be asleep till the race is off
4.45 Galway
Superb Story 9/2 win (after Cheltenham I have faith)
Rock the world 25/1 e/w
 
A few I fancy today and maybe Placepot selections.

MONTSARRAT 18 ew
MEHMAS 5/1
SWORD FIGHTER 9/2
MILL SPRINGS 4/1
MANAMA 7/1 and HELSDALE 25/1
MONTATAIRE 7/2
 
Bostonbob said:
To compliment my Pyromanic bet ( which i'll be laying off anyway) i've also had a fat each way bet on last years winner, Quick Jack. He loves the place which is so crucial at Galway. His record at the Festival is two wins and a second. One of those wins was last years race Galway Hurdle and he destroyed them.

Watch that performance and he just ticks every box for me. Travels up with the pace in fifth which is what he'll need to do today and cantered over the field like a dream. He hasn't run over hurdles since which to me is to protect that mark. 5lb claimer on board who won the Galway Plate yesterday so he's riding with confidence and is a very talented young lad. I think he rides as well as a professional. Today's mark is 148 but with that claim he's only running from a 7lbs higher mark. I'm positive he'd have won last years renewal with that on his back. Now, there's a couple in this years race that could be too good - Pyromaniac may just be too well handicapped (same trainer) and Superb Story could be a marginal grade one horse. However, each way pays first 5 with Betfair Sportsbook at 14/1 and that is a cracking bet. That may actually a Boston Bob 4 star bet ****
Click to expand...
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Morning, crew. Very decent Gooders for me thus far with 3 out of 4 wagers obliging. Think today though is much, much tougher and I will be keeping bets to a minimum level as a result.

The 2 that one will advise to the dear old regular readers though are STARGAZER (2.00) and LATHOM (5.30). The former really impressed me first time up this term with a nice success at Sandown Park. He has been raised 9 lbs for that success but as he does potentially look a Listed/Group performer you would expect Stargazer to be able to handle this increase and go very close in the old ‘card commencer’. Meanwhile, in the ‘lucky last’ Lathom really does looked to have been primed for this event by old boy Dave O’Meara. Last terms ‘Newbury Super Sales Sprint’ victor hasn’t been placed since that win but has dropped to a very attractive looking perch of 92 because of this. Most appealing off that mark plus this is the first time the word ‘firm’ has appeared in the going descriptor, for him, since that win. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more…

Am off to God’s own county, Devon, for 2 weeks from first thing tomorrow morning so until the next time. Take care…
Click to expand...

Barney - what was the county gamble for the stewards cup?!?
 
Tigris River 10/1 is the one I'm with In the Galway hurdle. Everything looks set for a big run after some nice runs for this featherweight <ok>
 
Xsquared 2.25 Galway 3/1
This changed yards this year and Peter Fahy has got in peak form. He won his last four starts (two over fences) and looks as though there is more to come from him. It's not often you see a son of Exceed and Excel going over fences.
 
Chancing You're Hired in the first at Gooders 8-1 seems fair
Sword Fighter to become the first 3yo winner of the Cup in 26 years
And a cheeky 40-1 shot in Stalking Moon in the 4.20, 'coz you just never know :)
 
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Pretty sure it won a few weeks ago Chelsea, surprised it was 66/1, oh and it translates as Black Cloud from Gaelige!
 
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