Italy is the value bet tonight lads - Germany have never beaten Italy in the finals of a major competition - the 8 matches having ended in 4 draws and 4 Italian victories. This is a psychological thing, basically the Germans love Italy and the Italians (most of them living south of Frankfurt go there on holiday every year, and did you notice how pally Hitler got with Mussolini?) and cannot therefore play with their ruthless German efficiency.
Joking aside, the Italians look a serious outfit and I think they will just edge it.