Off Topic Bill Nicholson Arms

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Some interesting stats:

72% turnout - getting on for twice the turnout for an election

The Leave vote at 70% in the white, working class, urban areas. Remain vote much higher in Scotland and NI

It seems that the Little Englanders got off their backsides and voted!
 
As someone relying on a strong sterling,
littleDinosaurLuke said:
It won't be Osbourne as his position is as untenable as Cameron's

I wonder how many Leave voters might want to reconsider when they realise the scale of the turmoil that's ahead (and indeed already upon us)?
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The myopic euphoria of the Brexiters this morning is very worrying - and I hope that the economic backlash is mitigated.

As someone with significant interests in both areas, but with a dependence on a strong sterling, my hope this morning is that this decision brings some other countries to the EU 'exit' table and at least limits the damage to the UK economy.
I think our departure will cause shockwaves through the single market and the principal beneficiary at least short/medium term will be the US$ and major Far East currencies.
 
Every one talks about economics when this is really about politics. Finance will flow around whether in or out but we have changed our democracy in a profound way and this is only the beginning. The potential danger in Europe is quite frightening and it's not even been discussed because people just concentrate on the economics.
I expect this to be the end of the UK, but what will happen in Europe is potentially devastating for world peace. There are far too many parallels with the early 20th century for my liking.
 
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Exactly Spurf. We will all still have food on the table. However the social fabric of this country will alter, not for the better either.
 
Spurf said:
Every one talks about economics when this is really about politics. Finance will flow around whether in or out but we have changed our democracy in a profound way and this is only the beginning. The potential danger in Europe is quite frightening and it's not even been discussed because people just concentrate on the economics.
I expect this to be the end of the UK, but what will happen in Europe is potentially devastating for world peace. There are far too many parallels with the early 20th century for my liking.
Click to expand...
Wouldn't disagree with any of that!
 
littleDinosaurLuke said:
It won't be Osbourne as his position is as untenable as Cameron's

I wonder how many Leave voters might want to reconsider when they realise the scale of the turmoil that's ahead (and indeed already upon us)?
Click to expand...

If remain had won this morning I'd have probably posted a similar message saying something about would they change their mind if Turkey joined, or greater federalisation was proposed etc.

Unfortunately this was always going to create a major divide, and I kind of wish one side had won decisively, but somehow we manage to accept a government every five years where a majority of the voters vote for someone else. I hope the country can sort out its divisions but to a certain extent I think the vote mirrors attitudes that existed regardless of whether there was a referendum or not. For example, it seems to reflect a certain disenfranchisement of large parts of the country from London and I would argue from the establishment.

With respect I also disagree about the parallels with the last century. Peace in Europe has been maintained since the war by NATO and not by the EU. Nobody has suggested leaving NATO. And while Russia continues to act as it does, there seems little scope for inter-state inter-Western Europe warfare. In fact it is helping keep us together - in military terms at least. There also seems to be very little division between France and Germany, which I think would be required for a serious escalation as per last century's problems. So I think there are plenty of things to be concerned about, but peace in Europe IMHO is one of the lesser ones.

I do agree that this does have implications for the UK as Spurf said. You can't ignore the fact that a large part of the country has views on just about everything that is contrary to the elected Government. Another independence referendum may be just because the last one was conducted on a different basis to that which now exists. Not for a few years probably, we have to see how it works outside the EU, but one day.

And kudos to the posters here for a well informed and restrained debate.
 
Spurf said:
Every one talks about economics when this is really about politics. Finance will flow around whether in or out but we have changed our democracy in a profound way and this is only the beginning. The potential danger in Europe is quite frightening and it's not even been discussed because people just concentrate on the economics.
I expect this to be the end of the UK, but what will happen in Europe is potentially devastating for world peace. There are far too many parallels with the early 20th century for my liking.
Click to expand...

We still have NATO so I don't see anything changing in a big way in Europe defensively. I also think that it is very much about economics together with political control, in particular immigration and control of our own borders. In two years time, whoever is in charge of the country will have the option to change many things. The leave campaign have mooted abolishing VAT on gas and electricity, which can only be a good thing. The pound will recover pretty quickly, we are still in the EEC for the next two years so not a lot will change immediately. Once the initial panic has worn off the status quo will return. Stock markets are likely to fall world-wide anyway, Commodity prices have seen a bull market this year and that is unlikely to change, which I think is fantastic, short sellers who manipulate the markets are the lowest of the low IMHO.

The Germans and the French sell more cars to us than we sell to them so I don't see trade tarifs coming in there. There may be some trade tarifs but if there is the pound will adjust accordingly against the Euro, that is the major strength of having our own currency and where the Euro fails, if the Greeks could have devalued their currency they would not be in the position that they are now. The biggest risk to us is another Euro crises making the pound so strong against the Euro our goods become too expensive for the europeans to buy, but that was always likely to happen whether the UK is in or out.

The Brexit vote may be a catalyst for a few other countries to have a referendum on membership and two or three may choose to leave but everyone should remain friends.

The biggest change will be the break up of the UK. I can't see there not being a second referendum on Scotish Independence as all Scottish regions voted to remain. If Boris or Michael Gove become leader neither will fight for Scotland to remain part of the UK as Cameron did, they with just shrug their shoulders and say 'good riddance, if they want to leave they can'. A Westminster election without the Scots would almost certainly guarentee a Conservative victory in England and Wales. I'm sure the Eurocrats will welcome Scotland as a new member. When they do it will be very interesting to see what decision the Scots make about their currency. I think it will be in their interest to keep an independent Scottish Pound but they might choose the Euro. God help them if they do, out of the frying pan into the fire.

The big multi-nationals will be the losers, having to pay taxes to Westminster if they choose to remain here. Hopefully a sensible government will use the added revenue to promote small businesses, which should generate income and create jobs.
 
I'm surprised people have voted for uncertainty and instability. Nobody can say for sure what the long term economic, social and political effects will be, but it's clear that there is already turmoil and upheaval - and that will definitely have a negative effect on the economy in the short term at least. The state of the world economy hardly gives reason for optimism that recovery will follow in the foreseeable future.

When you look at the spread of the votes, it's clear that there was a majority wishing to remain in London, other large cities, Scotland and NI. The balance swung towards leave because of the votes in the medium sized former industrial towns where there is widescale unemployment. I think there are many who blame the demise of traditional British industry on the EU and see the freedom of movement of labour as a threat, not an opportunity. Blame it on the Poles, Romanians etc has been the default position of many for a long time. Therefore, it shouldn't be surprising that in many of these towns, when the opportunity was given to get rid of Johnny Foreigner, it was taken.
 
littleDinosaurLuke said:
When you look at the spread of the votes, it's clear that there was a majority wishing to remain in London, other large cities, Scotland and NI. The balance swung towards leave because of the votes in the medium sized former industrial towns where there is widescale unemployment. I think there are many who blame the demise of traditional British industry on the EU and see the freedom of movement of labour as a threat, not an opportunity. Blame it on the Poles, Romanians etc has been the default position of many for a long time. Therefore, it shouldn't be surprising that in many of these towns, when the opportunity was given to get rid of Johnny Foreigner, it was taken.
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This is the part that gets me most of all, as anyone with a memory span longer than a goldfish's would remember what caused the demise of traditional British industries: Margaret Thatcher. Yet what did the British voting public do with this knowledge? Keep her in power. Twice.

Same can be said for the current incarnation of the Tories: they strip-mine the country, so what do the British voting public do? Take it out on the Lib Dems to keep the Tories in power. ****ing genius...
 
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Spur of the Moment said:
Scotland planning for a new Referendum...... Just announced.....
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It needs to happen quickly before the Brexit terms are negociated. If they choose independence, they will get a better deal in Europe if they don't exit as such, but choose to stay. In fact I think the Eurocrats (Junkers, Tusk etc.) will offer them a super deal just to spite the English and Welsh. If it could be done this summer it would be ideal for Scotland.
 
humanbeingincroydon said:
This is the part that gets me most of all, as anyone with a memory span longer than a goldfish's would remember what caused the demise of traditional British industries: Margaret Thatcher. Yet what did the British voting public do with this knowledge? Keep her in power. Twice.

Same can be said for the current incarnation of the Tories: they strip-mine the country, so what do the British voting public do? Take it out on the Lib Dems to keep the Tories in power. ****ing genius...
Click to expand...

Beg to differ, the Trade Unions caused the demise of British Industries, not Thatcher. If you look at Germany where the Trade Unions work with the companies rather than against them, the economy has florished. Thatcher was the catalyst, the Trade Unions were the cause.
 
Spur of the Moment said:
Scotland planning for a new Referendum...... Just announced.....
Click to expand...
And Ireland are taking the news very badly, too.
It's a terrible result for them, for many reasons.

A Scottish independence vote is one thing.
Northern Ireland is something entirely different.

And now Spain have called for joint sovereignty of Gibraltar, as the locals voted overwhelmingly for remain.
So Boris will be taking over the United Kingdom of England and, er... that's about it. Brilliant.
 
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I can't believe that the country I grew up in has become such an insular, inward looking place.

Unfortunately, it's the young who are going to suffer the consequences of the votes of a bunch of xenophobic ****wits!..
 
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PleaseNotPoll said:
And Ireland are taking the news very badly, too.
It's a terrible result for them, for many reasons.

A Scottish independence vote is one thing.
Northern Ireland is something entirely different.
Click to expand...

Not a good day for those of us with a foot on either side of the Irish Sea!! :headbang:
 
NowsufferinginSpain said:
I can't believe that the country I grew up in has become such an insular, inward looking place.

Unfortunately, it's the young who are going to suffer the consequences of the votes of a bunch of xenophobic ****wits!..
Click to expand...
Maybe you're insulated from it by living in Spain, but a massive chunk of our media spend their whole time generating this.
Every problem is blamed upon the EU, the European courts or immigrants.
That way people don't look at who's genuinely at fault for all of this country's ills.

A prime example? The fishing industry.
The only way to avoid destroying the sea entirely is to fish sustainably, so there have to be limits introduced.
The UK is given an amount and what does the government do with it? Sells it off.
Who gets the blame for "foreigners stealing our fish"? The EU.
 
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