Daily Thread Friday 29th July

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TopClass

TopClass

Well-Known Member
Jun 22, 2011
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2.00- RASMY 33/1 e.w (NAP)- Lightly raced gelding from the Tregoning stable, which seems to be finding its feet in recent days. Still completely unexposed, particularly upped to a mile and a half for the first time today. Having watched his races that spread over the past two years, I get the impression that he is a horse that takes a while to wind up to full speed and therefore the extra distance will suit him. Although beaten a fair few lengths on reappearance, I have to say he shaped as if the ability was still there but ran very rusty and in some ways perhaps a little green.

Two factors could be important in a race that has been largely dominated by 4 year olds: a) A prominent ride on the tight Goodwood track, where it could become a real battle to the finish, and b) The downhill run-in to the finish line, where I think this horse will be suited judging by his action, in that it should help his momentum. I'm no expert on actions mind.

Then again, I might just be a raving lunatic and completely wrong about this horse.

2.35- CHEF 10/1- Drop back to a mile no real concern and has shaped with real promise all starts this year, last time behind the well-regarded DOMINANT. Ought to be strong at the finish here and the Balding team seem to be on fire.

3.15- I'm useless at handicaps it seems and although Green Destiny is a terrific horse, I have doubts about it over a mile and on a tight track it might not have the luck, so is worth taking on. SOORAH (NB) often travels supremely well and with a bit of luck in running can go well at very rewarding odds of 16/1, looking well handicapped given she beat a couple of useful sorts in a listed race last week.

3.45- RIGHT TO DREAM 12/1- This strikes me as a typical Brian Meehan improver. Chased home the excellent Roman Soldier on second start before romping away in an easier race last time. The stiff test of Goodwood should be right up this ones street and can hopefully give Richard Hannons horse something to think about.
 
Like the look of a few for tomorrow. Will try get write ups done for all

Goodwood

3.10 Mont Agel 40/1 -NAP
3.45 Saigon 10/1 - NB
4.50 Rimth 14/1

Galway

6.50 Jumbo Rio 12/1
8.00 Monadreen Dancer 50/1 - very tentative
 
3.10 Goodwood

Mont Agel 40/1 or 28/1 w/o Green Destiny (Paddy Power)

I think 40/1 ridiculously understates the chances of this Michael Bell trained colt. If you discount his last two races at Royal Ascot and Newmarket as a result of a poor draw (certainly applicable at Royal Ascot and very much an argument at Newmarket) and take the form of his effort 3 starts back then his chances look excellent. This very lightly race 4 year old has only had 10 starts to date in his career and thus remains pretty unexposed and definitely open to improvement. Placed on his debut over 7f, Mont Agel came out and won his next start over a mile at Windsor very impressively by 3.5L. Although the form of that race hasn’t worked out fantastically (2nd won off 83), he was mighty impressive that day and could have won with a lot more in hand.

Mont Agel form is pretty patchy, with good efforts surrounded by some poor ones. However, if you discount his last two races due to the draw and 2 efforts on softish ground then he has performed admirably in 3 of his 6 starts. Although it is probably a push to be looking for reasons that he underperformed on soft ground, it is at least a viable opinion. In May of this year, Mont Agel ran by far his the best race in his career to date when finishing an agonisingly close head behind St Moritz at York off a mark of 94. Hayley Turner gave him a fantastic ride that day and was unlucky to be touched off by a better horse on the day. The form of that race is working out very nicely indeed. St Moritz has subsequently come 2nd twice off a 3lb higher mark. The first of these efforts was behind Fanunalter who has subsequently finished 0.75L behind Dick Turpin off a 3lb higher mark.

Perhaps more relevant to todays race is the horses who finished behind Mont Agel that day. Dance and Dance finished a neck behind in 3rd off a mark off a mark of 96 and races today off a mark of 108. The large rise in the weights is due to Dance and Dance’s excellent second behind Julienas at Royal Ascot. With Mont Agel running of 97, Mont Agel is 11lb better off at the weights and it is hard to difficult to see a reverse in the form with Mont Agel’s Royal Ascot run a write off. Furthermore, Pintura finished 4th that day and has 1L to make up with only a 1lb swing. The two rivals tomorrow are far more fancied tomorrow in the betting (rightly so with better subsequent efforts) but taking the form of this race literally then Mont Agel looks extremely tought to beat.

Once again tomorrow Mont Agel is very poorly drawn in stall 17 which is a huge negative. However, Webbow has won over 7f from stall 11 and Red Gulch from stall 10 over 1m shows it is not impossible to finish well with a wide draw. Mont Agel has twice gone around Goodwood in his career with 2 poor efforts which is a big negative but not the end of the world. The talented Olivier Peslier takes the ride for the first time on this colt and comes over to Goodwood for just 3 rides. Hayley Turner has been on board 2 of the last 3 starts but was chucked off for the big race at Royal Ascot so lets hope that this is the case again as opposed to her choosing Boom and Bust over todays selection. Mont Agel is visored for what is the relatively in form Michael Bell’s only runner at Goodwood. I am hoping this visor will see an improvement come from Mont Agel that will see him at least make the frame. I see Green Destiny as the most likely winner in the race and a potential Group winner but with a field of 20 and a price of 11/4 I am not willing to play. As a result, I will prob split my stakes between the 2 aforementioned bets. Although I will not be having a large bet, I think Mont Agel is vastly overpriced at 40/1 and is my NAP of the day as he represents the most value to me.
 
3.45 Goodwood

Saigon 10/1

You can’t not like anything Saigon has done from his 2 victorious starts to date. This 2 year old from James Toller’s yard made an excellent winning debut when beating Justineo by a head over 6f at Yarmouth. The front 2 that day drew fully 6 lengths clear and with Justineo not running since it is quite hard, on that running, to see how good the pair really are. However, it is safe to say that these 2 horses are far above average. This nicely bred colts 2nd and final outing demonstrated just how good he is as he took a listed race at Newbury beating Casper Netscher by a neck, who also reopposes today(I see him as overpriced at 25/1 also). Although a lot of the horses that day were undefeated, Saigon showed his dour ability to battle when getting up in the dying strides to impressively land the spoils under a fantastically timed Kirsty Milczarek ride, who is todays pilot. Once again there was many undefeated horses in that race, but the form available looks very good.

Although winning a listed race is probably form enough, Casper Netscher has finished an excellent 2.38L 3rd behind Frederick Engels at Royal Ascot. Frederick Engels has subsequently come out and beaten fellow Royal Ascot winner Roman Soldier, a horse I really rate, which shows that this form is very strong indeed. I am quite delighted that Saigon runs for the ‘unfashionable’ Toller yard as if he was represented by one of the bigger yards I expect he would be half this price or even shorter. With 2 starts to date, excellent battling qualities and guaranteed improvement, this Group 2 contest will clearly be the toughest task in a short career. Undoubtedly the favourite Harbour Watch is the one to beat with two fantastic performances so far. A winner by 3.75L to subsequent winner Avon Pearl on debut and 4.5L victory to subsequent Molecomb 2nd Burwaaz makes him a worthy favourite. However, at 8/11 he is too short against a field of unexposed runners. His price is probably this short as a result of the Hannon/Hughes combination also. Saigon is certain to improve and as he has only done just enough in his 2 starts to date so he could have a lot more left in the tank. I would be very surprised to see Saigon out of the top 3 and rate him as a fantastic e/w bet at 10/1
 
6.50 Galway

Jumbo Rio 12/1

Quite fancy Edward O'Grady's gelding in this race. Jumbo Rio started out his career on the flat for Timothy Doyle in 2007 and after his first two starts was never out of the frame in 11 starts - finishing 4th once, 3rd 4 times, 2nd 5 times and winning once. After this, he switched yards to his current stable and became quite a smart hurdler. On debut he beat the excellent Mourad, who has since gone on to finish 3rd in the World Hurdle and 2nd behind Quevega and subsequently beat him again. In total, Jumbo Rio has placed on 12 of his 17 runs winning 6 reaching a peak rating of 155.

LTO Jumbo Rio returned to the flat over 10f where he finished a solid 1.75L 2nd behind Glamorous. His reappearance run from a 3 year break on the flat was decent effort when 2.5L behind stable mate Torphichen back in April. Both efforts were very solid for this ultra consistent animal, who has not been out of the top 3 in his last 3 starts.

Given his class on both the flat and over hurdles, I think the 12/1 on offer for Jumbo Rio is a very reasonable price. Although he will have to defy a career high mark of 92 (off 88 LTO), he is the model of consistency and you there is a fantastic chance to have a good run for your money. Fran Berry is an eye catching jockey booking and he takes the reins for the first time. Jumbo Rio is stepped back up to 12f which should be no problem at all and if acting on the Galway track and possessing a pretty good draw I think Jumbo Rio has a very live chance to get his head in front in what is O’Grady’s only runner of the day
 
Morning all. Backed 3 out of 4 winners last night at Espom. Great evening. Got to say Blonde was brilliant!! Sad but true!!

Well done everyone yesterday, this forum was on fire. Has been a good week actually.

Keep up the good work!

I wonder is Chuckles will be on to tip up Advanced e/w at 50-1 today!!!
 
Topclass, ROTO - do you both work night shifts or are you both insomniac? Some extreme posting times there chaps I must say.

Don well done yesterday, what did your Dermot Weld combos return?

Haven't had a look today yet, thoroughly depressed by the weather here (14°C and raining Datsun cogs)
 
Morning Oddy. Agreed re Toppy and Roto. Like a bit of morning reading and some food for thought!!

Was nice, think it returned around £250-300 so 5-1 ish for what I put on. Not 100% sure as not logged onto the account yet on the home computer. Had the other two of his won god knows what it would have been. Pretty big i imagine.
 
morning all, if any body can glance at thirsk today would be grateful

blondie, my boy hood fancy and i think she still looks good

great stuff on here yesyerday well done all

stay frosty
 
Don you just reminded me of one of my favourite Bernard Manning jokes.

Bloke comes home from work and says to his wife "I've won the pools, get your bags packed". The wife replies "How wonderful, but what shall I pack? Something warm, something for cooler evenings?" The bloke replies "I don't care, just pack your bags and f#*k off" <laugh><laugh><laugh><laugh><laugh>
 
Todays NAP is
2.10 Bangor Short Takes

to go with rest of win lucky63 today
2.20 Thirsk Lady Jourdain
5.25 Goodwood Quality Art
5.35 Bath Sarangoo
6.20 Newmarket Grizzle
7.40 Verbeeck
 
Dan - tricky looking card at Thirsk. Wouldn't disagree with Degs choice in the first and I think the John Dunlop horse in the 4.05 holds a decent chance but won't make you rich. I had to laugh at one in the 2.55 - J R Hartley. What a great name for a horse, although I guess the irony will be lost on anyone aged under 40 <laugh>. He could be worth a dabble at 14s though - has been highly tried since winning at this level in March on the all-weather and looks the most unexposed horse in the race. The drop back to 7F I think will help as he didn't seem to get home last time. The first-time cheek-pieces could do the trick today.

Best of luck and have a good day <ok>
 
You off with Dean Danbo? Make sure he tells you about the non triers before you back them!! That really made me chuckle mate!

Have a good day. Tough card.

Would say 2.20 Lady Jordain with Jaci Uzzi e/w. 15.30 Federation.
 
haha gotta love some of mannings stuff!! Myfav joke of the week goes

man walks into a shop & says to the female attendent 'can i have a kitkat chunky'-the attendent fetches him a kitkat chunky and he replies 'i said i wanted a regular kitkat you fat b!tch'.:smiley-finger007:

Heading up to galway tonoght for evening card so any tips much appreciated!!
 
Ste what about this one:

2 girls working on the checkout at the supermarket. One says "I can always tell the difference between single blokes and married blokes". Second one "how so?". First one says "Watch this". A bloke comes to the checkout with one egg, one sausage, one rasher of bacon, one tin of beans and 1 mushroom. The girl says to him "You're a single fella aren't you?" He replies "Yeah, how did you know that?" and the girl replies "You're a right ugly c*nt".

Or this one:

Yorkshire couple on holiday in Benidorm, the wife is making dinner on the first evening and says "George, I've gone and forgetten the bisto. That bloke next door looks English, ask him if we can borrow some". So George goes next door and knocks on the door. When the bloke opens it, George says "Has ta any bisto?" And the bloke replies "F*ck off you Spanish c*nt"

<laugh><laugh><laugh><laugh><laugh><laugh><laugh><laugh><laugh><laugh>
 
much appreciated boys

Oddy, my name oh yes its J R Hartley, the fly fisherman

Don, them two beat dapper i was looking at the same bet me self

Jokes with accents
Bloke goes to a geordie doctor, "every time i go down on our lass it tastes of chocolate and coconut"
Dr "Why its Boun ty"
 
Dan LMAO

What's the difference between Jockey Wilson and Walt Disney? Jockey plays darts but Walt disnae

I went into a bakers in Glasgow and said "Is that a custard or a meringue" and he said "No, you're not wrang, it is a custard"
 
nice one odddog!!!

Father o' flaherty is unwell so Father Murphy steps into to replace him for a few days in the local parish.Whilst taking confession from the local town bike she tells him her dirty deeds of the week to a shocked and appauled father Murphy-the graffic & sxual content of the confession was something new to the priest who came from a small and respectful town-unsure what how much penance he should give to the said women he bekons the alter boy & asks 'what does father o 'flaherty give for blow jobs'-two cans of coke and a mars bar came the reply!!
 
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