Will it be Trump?

'The two major issues that will decide the outcome of this vote will be .

The ability to control our own borders.
The ability to make and control our own laws.
That is why I believe the majority will vote out.. Whether you want to get a job in the EU probably won't persuade many people!'

Banksy,
I wish the above was true.
I think it will come down to folk who are scared stiff of the 'Trade' argument whoever is right or wrong. Tbh I've been really disappointed with the 'Out' campaign, we hardly here anything from them. All I seem to see on tv is the Goverment Juggernaut brainwashing the electorate.
I'll be voting to leave because sovereignty is everything to this Englishman.

 

In order to be able to freely trade with the EU outside of it we will not be able to do either.

And I'm glad we have the EU supreme laws, it stops the government from exploiting us by garu teeing us workers rights and human rights.

 

MTG - Your first point is my main 'wobble' on me following my heart and voting out (not saying I won't end up doing it mind!)
The thing is, nobody actually knows what the trade agreements will look like - nobody has ever LEFT the EU before. However, just as Mr. Obama still will be just as keen for us to consume his Chryslers, iPads, McDonalds, Starbucks and Amazon products if we leave, the Germans will still want to sell us their Mercs, BMWs, Bosch and Siemens goods - just as the French will want us to import their Renaults and Peugeots and sell us their electricity and pay as we cross the Severn Bridge.
For once, our trade deficit could be an advantage if we vote 'out'; we import more from the EU then we sell to it, so if they impose tariffs on us then it will hurt, but it will hurt THEM more than us.

As for your second point, I just simply disagree with it.

 

I never said it wasn't two ways, how ever I think it is pretty ****ty of out campaigns to use the hardwork of our army and exponentially exaggerate the threat of terrorism to affect voters.

You may say im niave but I think it is a view that is of the real world for youngsters and not one from someone comfortable in a bubble above it all. I've worked alongside people working 60 hours a week across 2 minimum wage jobs. I don't have a house and will in the future being paying over the odds for an average house. I will be paying taxes. I'm working hard to get to where I want to be. But what about my peers, I see many of them struggling, they're not bad people but many of them struggle to see a future as they have not many options ahead. When you're young you see the world from a different perspective. When you're 50 many will be lucky enough not to have to see it like that.

 

You got the first part of your second paragraph right! (except for your spelling)

How does controlling our borders and making our own laws affect our ability to trade with the rest of the world?

I have asked you several times now MTG and you keep spouting 'facts' you are unable to back up? answer this single question and you may go some way to persuading some people you have a point. at the moment you are just repeating empty rhetoric.

 

I see what you're saying but emerging markets like China, India and Brazil will all look to trade with the bigger body that is EU, therefore countries in the EU are better off with trading agreements.

As for trading with the EU, Norway have to obide by eu laws and accept free movement laws, Switzerland have the highest number of immigrants in the whole of Europe and canada don't rea on the EU because they've got America next door.

 

They will trade with whoever has the market for their goods, We have already recently made trade deal agreements with China and the fact we are IN THE EU stops us from progressing these deals.

Show some facts to back up what you are saying MTG!

 

More bullshit.. Switzerland has approx 2.4m immigrants, the UK has approx 8.5 m and Germany has approx 12.5 m.

 

Because that above is full of facts

 

But Switzerland has a population of about 8 million so 25% are immigrants

 

[QUOTE="banksyisourhero, post: 9177623, member: 100078

Thats not a fact its pure speculation, you have a habit of doing that Don't you, spouting facts that aren't that at all.. leaving the EU will save this country £1.5 trillion in 13 years. that sum will pay off our complete national debt.
[/QUOTE]

~£50 million a day = ~ 1.4 billion every 4 weeks = ~ 18 billion a year ~ ~ £240 billion in 13 years

out by a factor of 6 on that one

 

Ill repeat what you said as you don't seem able to understand your own statements..

I have proven to you that statement is untrue.. You didn't say anything about per capita.. So no they aren't facts!

Read this MTG, because this is what is beginning to happen throughout Europe, and your utopian socialist dreams may fall apart under right wing resurgence, something none of us want!

http://www.economist.com/news/europ...ight-switzerland-scarcely-touched-europes-new

 

~£50 million a day = ~ 1.4 billion every 4 weeks = ~ 18 billion a year ~ ~ £240 billion in 13 years

out by a factor of 6 on that one[/QUOTE]


Really? I've seen your maths before.. I'l think I'll chose to believe this economist and financial advisor who likes to factor in all the issues.

Get your facts right!

 

Really? I've seen your maths before.. I'l think I'll chose to believe this economist and government advisor who likes to factor in all the issues.][/QUOTE]
I assumed You were talking about the membership fee. As for economists. The government, LSE and 2 other independent institutions said that we would be worse off by leaving, which ranged from £4000-£9000 Worse off per person. Can you name an independent economist who says we're better off outside?

 

Yes the one above..

You assume a lot don't you! And you were the one saying that 'ordinary people' shouldn't be able to vote on this matter as they are incapable of grasping the details involved and yet you seem to repeat unsubstantiated rubbish as facts yourself.

 

Some myths to dispel....


1. BRITAIN WOULD LOSE THREE MILLION JOBS IF WE LEFT THE EU

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– If Britain withdrew from the EU it would preserve the benefits of trade with the EU by imposing a UK/EU Free Trade Agreement.

– The EU sells a lot more to us than we sell to them. In 2014 there was a trade deficit of over £50bn, with a current account deficit of nearly £100 billion. It seems unlikely that the EU would seek to disrupt a trade which is so beneficial to itself.

– Moreover, the Lisbon Treaty stipulates that the EU must make a trade agreement with a country which leaves the EU.

– World Trade Organization (WTO) rules lay down basic rules for international trade by which both the EU and UK are obliged to abide. These alone would guarantee the trade upon which most of those 3 million jobs rely.

2. BRITAIN WILL BE EXCLUDED FROM TRADE WITH THE EU BY TARIFF BARRIERS

-The EU has free trade agreements with over 50 countries to overcome such tariffs, and is currently negotiating a number of other agreements.

-EU now exempts services and many goods from duties anyway. In 2009 UK charged customs duty of just 1.76% on non-EU imports. This is so low that the EU Common Market is basically redundant as a customs union with tariff walls.



3. BRITAIN CANNOT SURVIVE ECONOMICALLY OUTSIDE THE EU IN A WORLD OF TRADING BLOCS

-Major economies eg. Japan (one of the world’s largest) are not in a trading bloc.

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-The EU is not the place where most economic growth is occurring. The EU’s share of world GDP is forecast to decline to 22% in 2025, down from 37% in 1973.

-Norway and Switzerland are not in the EU, yet they export far more per capita to the EU than the UK does; this suggests that EU membership is not a prerequisite for a healthy trading relationship.

-Furthermore, Britain’s best trading relationships are generally not within the EU, but outside, i.e. with countries such as the USA and Switzerland.

-The largest investor in the UK is not even an EU country, but the US.



4. THE EU IS MOVING TOWARDS THE UK’S POSITION ON CUTTING REGULATION AND BUREAUCRACY

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-EU directives are subject to a ‘rachet’ effect – i.e. once in place they are highly unlikely to be reformed or repealed.

-Less than 15% of Britain’s GDP represents trade with the EU yet Brussels regulations afflict 100% of our economy (the 5th largest in the world)

-Over 70% of the UK’s GDP is generated within the UK, but still subject to EU law.

-In 2006 it was estimated that EU over-regulation costs 600bn Euros across the EU each year.

-In 2010, Open Europe estimated EU regulation had cost Britain £124 billion since 1998.

-Whilst red tape savings are not direct cash savings, deregulation would result in a true ‘bonfire of regulations’ that could fund either sizeable tax cuts or additional public spending.



5. IF WE LEAVE, BRITAIN WILL HAVE TO PAY BILLIONS TO THE EU AND IMPLEMENT ALL ITS REGULATIONS WITHOUT HAVING A SAY

-We have very little say within the EU, and would have far more leverage outside EU as an independent sovereign nation and the world’s 5th largest economy.

-The UK currently has only 8.4% of voting power ‘say’ in the EU, and the Lisbon Treaty ensured the loss of Britain’s veto in many more policy areas.

-Britain’s 73 MEPs are a minority within the 751 in the European Parliament.

-With further enlargement (Croatia, Turkey’s 79 million citizens), British influence would be further watered down.

-As for continuing contributions by an independent Britain, Swiss and Norwegian examples show that the UK would achieve substantial net savings.

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SWISS CASE STUDY:

Official Swiss government figures conclude that through their trade agreements with the EU, the Swiss pay the EU under 600 million Swiss Francs a year, but enjoy virtually free access to the EU market. The Swiss have estimated that full EU membership would cost Switzerland net payments of 3.4 billion Swiss francs a year.

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NORWAY CASE STUDY:

Norway only had to make relatively few changes to its laws to make its products eligible for the EU marketplace. In 2009, the Norwegian Mission to the EU estimated that Norway’s total financial contribution linked to their EEA (European Economic Area) agreement is some 340 mn Euros a years, of which some 110mn Euros are contributions related to the participation in various EU programmes. However, this is a fraction of the gross annual cost that Britain must pay for EU membership which is now £18.4bn, or £51mn a day.



6. THE EU HAVE BROUGHT PEACE TO THE EUROPEAN CONTINENT

The Reality:

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-Even now, the EU is only 28 nations of the 47 European nations listed as national members of the Council of Europe.

-The forerunner to the EU, the Common Market, didn’t come into existence until 1958, and then only with 6 nations, and yet there was no war between European countries from 1945 to 1956 (except the Hungarian revolution). Whilst peaceful international cooperation is welcomed at all levels, to say the EU is the sole guarantor of peace is an extreme exaggeration that is dishonest in its application.

-It is NATO, founded in 1949 and dominated by the USA, and not the EU, that has actually kept the peace in Europe, together with parliamentary democracy. Both of which are being undermined by the EU.

-The former German President Herzog wrote a few years ago that ‘the question has to be raised of whether Germany can still unreservedly be called a parliamentary democracy’. This was owing to the number of German laws emanating from the EU- which he assessed at some 84%.

-The break up of Yugoslavia was a major test of the EU’s ability to keep the peace. It was EU interference that helped trigger a major civil war and its dithering contributed to deaths of some 100,000 people. It was only decisive action by the US/NATO forces that stopped the violence. Peace was established by the US-brokered Dayton Agreement.



7. THE EU HAS A POSITIVE IMPACT ON THE BRITISH ECONOMY

-British industries such as fishing, farming, postal services and manufacturing have already been devastated by Britain’s membership of the EU.

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-EU membership costs UK billions of pounds and large numbers of lost jobs thanks to unnecessary and excessive red tape, substantial membership and aid contributions, inflated consumer prices and other associated costs.

– The Common Fisheries Policy has cost British coastal communities 115,000 jobs (Lee Rotherham, 10 years on)



8. BRITAIN WILL LOSE VITAL FOREIGN INVESTMENT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF LEAVING THE EU

-In a 2010 survey on UK’s attractiveness to foreign investors, Ernst and Young found Britain remained the number one Foreign

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Direct Investment (FDI) destination in Europe owing largely to the City of London and the UK’s close corporate relationship with the US. EU membership was not mentioned at all in their table of key investment factors, which were (in order of importance): UK culture and values and the English language; telecommunications infrastructure; quality of life; stable social environment, and transport and logistics infrastructure.

-In any case, open access to the EU market would continue through a Free Trade Agreement in the manner of Switzerland and Norway whilst the UK would gain from higher growth, less regulation, more public spending and/or lower taxes and more suitable trade deals.



9. BRITAIN WILL LOSE ALL INFLUENCE IN THE WORLD BY BEING OUTSIDE THE EU

-Britain has a substantial ‘portfolio of power’ in its own right, which includes membership of the G20and G8 Nations, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council (one of only 5 members) and seats on the International Monetary Fund Board of Governors and World Trade Organisation.

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-The UK also lies at heart of the Commonwealth of 53 nations. Moreover, London is the financial capital of the world and Britain has the sixth largest economy. The UK is also in the top ten manufacturing nations in the world.

-Far from increasing British influence in the world, the EU is undermining UK influence. The EU is demanding there is a single voice for the EU in the UN and in the IMF. The EU has also made the British economy and City of London less competitive through overregulation, and negotiates more protectionist and less effective trade deals on behalf of the UK.

-The European External Action Service (EEAS) and its EU ‘Foreign Minister’ Federica Mogherini are undermining national diplomatic representation and the furtherance of British political and commercial interests through British embassies, which are being closed or downsized around the world.

-The Commonwealth is increasingly discriminated against by the EU policy on visas, so that non-EU Commonwealth citizens face having to obtain visas whilst citizens of even new EU entrants have automatic entry. Historic Commonwealth bonds with Britain are being lost.



10. LEGALLY, BRITAIN CANNOT LEAVE THE EU

-Technically, Britain could leave the EU in a single day. Legislatively, this would be achieved simply by repealing the European Communities Act 1972 and its attendant Amendment Acts through a single clause Bill passing through Westminster.

-If the British people voted to leave in an In/Out referendum or by voting in a party with EU withdrawal on its manifesto, Parliament would have to respect the will of the British people and there would be no justification for delay or obstruction in either House.

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-However, the process of setting up a replacement UK/EU Free Trade Agreement will take longer, though there would be no need for time-consuming negotiation of tariff reductions if the UK/EU Free Trade Agreement merely replicated existing EU trade arrangements.

-In addition, even the Lisbon Treaty’s Article 50 enshrines the right of member states to leave the Union, albeit in an unattractive manner. The same article requires the EU to seek a free trade deal with a member which leaves. Greenland established a precedent for a sovereign nation by leaving the EEC in 1985, and is prospering well outside of it. With Westminster still sovereign (for the moment), it is the British Parliament who will decide how and when Britain leaves the EU.

 

Bullshit

 

Thats better, the plebs can even understand that...

 

And in one statement you've gone from someone who I admired your passion, to talking complete bollocks.

The supreme laws are there to help one source and that's the lawyers. And believe it or not we was a fair country before EU supreme laws protected the OTHER nations in line with ours regarding safety etc

 

Redprintt I fear there may be some truth in what you say and you can understand the younger generation being taken in by it all, What MTG doesn't realise is (and he probably hates me for it by now) is that it's the youngest of society I fear for, his jobs and prosperity will be worth nothing without true democracy that protects the weak and rewards the hardworking. I believe We can do that without EU regulation but a return to EU cooperation and trade agreements.

Every time I look at this debate ( and yes I probably start from a slightly biased position) I can see no good reason to remain in the EU.. not one person has persuaded me with a single argument that the world will be a worse place should we leave, however control of our borders and laws makes me feel Britain will be a better and safer place.