1st time caller to this topic, mostly due to a wait and see attitude. Well, I've waited and what has prompted me most to add my two pennies worth is the amount of Financial gurus in this country that I have the displeasure of conversing with that are well and truly scared of a Brexit. Now these are European/Global finance gurus who's scared position, you'll be surprised to note, is from the EU perspective and how it will negatively affect the likes of Germany, France, Denmark, Holland - the powerhouses persay.
I'll try to structure this in 3 segments:
Financial and Industrial impact
There is a genuine belief that Britain after a period of a few years, will be more than OK, that this notion of guaranteed poverty being the result of exiting this exclusive club being smashed to bits, in the same way that Tony Fernandes is known as a great Businessman ( notice the ref back to our beloved RRRs.)
There is a feeling that Britain is more than capable, with decent strong leadership to redvelop and concentrate on producing and manufacturing, this may seem far fledged to you now seeing as the resignation of succumbing lazily to low cost countries is prevelant in all "Western World" countries and it will mean concentrating on core Industries but I happen to agree.
There will be initial resentment from the EU to do business with UK but at Minus growth, this will not remain tenable, and with goods sold at the right standards with the right price, no major firm will pass up on this.
We have seen this on many occaisions previously where for instance, when the pound has significantly devalued against the Euro and Dollar, UK goods have become very, very attractive and volumes have increased significantly.
I can assure you as a previous Procurement and Purchasing Head of a significant Worlwide conglomorate that the politics never came into the occaision as long at it did not hinder US Export control or EU legislation - (the UK is not about to be branded in the same boat as Russia and Iran by the way!)
As a country it is felt that there is the pre-requisite differentiation in skills still remaining to pull this off.
My opinion - I think that they are running scared of British resilience and they may well come out of this lazy stupur that Europe and US is in.
Relationships and security
Rather simply some will strengthen and some will become less important, Obama was well within his rights to offer his opinion (I like him by the way), but his opinions were flawed and without any real substance. The US WILL want to do a trade deal with the UK, and on the contrary of being at the back of the queue, the UK may well be at the forefront and used as a chip against the EU. There are once again, more than sufficient relationships and intertwined dependencies that this will never happen.
One question that should have been put to Obama, will the UK be at the back of the queue for your next lunatic war?
Scotland?, let them go if they want to, they're already counting their lucky stars at not leaving the UK last year, they won't anyway.
This could be an absolute stroke of genius if played out right, the borders will always be more open now then they were, UK borders however, can now dictate who they want in. You're going to have to do something though about the rights of any Commonwealth resident being allowed rights of passage, if that still exists, but this will be an opportunity to do so.
The UK intelligence is renowned for being up there with the best, co-operation existed prior to the EU and that will not stop now.
As for the residents of the UK, this may well be a force to unite as a people and concentrate on bringing back some good honest values to the isles.
The future and future opportunities
The gurus are running scared and the lazy status quo could be toppled. Should the UK make a rampant success (or even medium) where will that leave the false Utopia? Where will that leave the peoples of Europe that are already seeing an even further movement towards a centralisation that see has no bearing on them?
Likelihood is that the UK, as Iran and Iceland is now, (though not after so many years) will have reinvigorated itself and be the player everyone wants to follow (unlike our team which is doomed at best for 2/3 years of mediocre boredom).
My opinion
Sadly, the Global gurus need not worry. The UK will vote to remain and the opportunity will have been lost, not because of its people, but more because of the completely inept politicians that the media focuses on.
Me? I'm able to have this attitude due to being an Anorchist that has always chosen the flag of convenience.
Thanks for bearing with me,
Col, I'll be wearing my Union Jack underpants on my head for you on the Polling day, spoiling the Danes' view!!
Take care all
