Off Topic Impact of Brexit on Football

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NORKIE said:
JKC Obviously you don't know the meaning of COULD. If that is not an exaggeration then pray tell me because it is not a factual statement the IMF made. It COULD BE THE OPPOSITE TO WHAT THEY SAY, they are just saying it could and then again it could not. HAVE YOU GOT IT YET ?
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What happened to being civil, eh Norkie? Good grief.


You're quite right in that the word 'could' implies there is an element of doubt. Yes indeed. Thus, as there's doubt, it's not hyperbole.

It would, however, be hyperbole if it said "BREXIT WILL DEFINITELY CAUSE DEVASTATING ECONOMIC PROBLEMS ON BOTH REGIONAL AND GLOBAL LEVELS"
or
"BREXIT WILL DEFINITELY NOT CAUSE DEVASTATING ECONOMIC PROBLEMS ON BOTH REGIONAL AND GLOBAL LEVELS"


Anyway, I'm going back to actually reading the report.
 
NORKIE said:
You forfeited the right to civility when you called me a heretic, and didn't offer an apology !!!!!
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I thought it was clear that post of mine was sarcastic and intended to be for comic effect. Clearly I was mistaken. Apologies.
 
I'm not sure what's come over me lately. I didn't think I was the sort of forum-member that gets into genuine arguments with one of the more polite and affable posters around.

I mean, arguments with Herr General and KIO I can understand, but actual arguments with yourself, Norkie? :confused:
Apologies again.
 
JKC The slate has been wiped clean. No need to apologies again, I accepted your first apologies. You say you are uncommitted to whether to go IN or OUT. Whatever you decide just make sure you vote.

That flag you show is also my flag.
 
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NORKIE said:
JKC That map you show is wrong. That island marked Malta is in fact Sicily, Malta is that little island to the south east of Sicily. There is nothing to beat accuracy.

Talking of accuracy,
In the United Kingdom, the planned June referendum on European Union membership has already created uncertainty for investors; a ‘Brexit’ could do severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships,”

I note your wording "could" not "would". Now that is what I call real scaremongering."
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The trouble with this argument, norkie mate, is that nothing is certain. If they said "would", they would (ha) be lying. There is no way anyone knows for certain. However, every single rigorous analysis of the economic effects of Brexit show that it will very, very likely be profoundly negative. It's not even really being debated by the Brexit supporters.

The trouble is that in a single line quote, there's nothing in between "would" and "won't" other than "could" which really doesn't do the probability of the risk justice, but you simply need to read some of the analysis to realise that it's very likely to happen.

Of course, the other side will repeatedly say "oh, well even if it's very likely, you still don't KNOW". Well yes, but that's not going to encourage me to bet on Aston Villa staying up now is it?
 
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Rob bor,I couldn't agree more. Nobody knows the effect of the Referendum. It is all guesswork but doesn't stop either side from using scaremongering tactics, but then there is a lot at stake. The electorate will just have to use its judgement and hope it is the right decision. There will be a lot of folk pleased when it is settled one way or the other.

Don't bet on Villa bor, never throw good money after bad LOL.
 
NORKIE said:
DHC bor, just to clarify your figures.
UK gave £78bn to the EU, of which £5.4 bn was earmarked for R&D. The EU funds science based on merit, so the UK does quite well out of the EU R&D budget - over that period we were awarding grants totalling £8.8bn.

Question. £5.4bn earmarked, who made the decision for this figure, Britain or EU.
NB. We gave £78bn, but only received back £8.8bn. Do you know where the other £59.2bn went or was this our total contribution to the EU for the period you specified and used by the EU for other purposes.

I know your feeling regarding lack of assistance given by past governments. Have witnessed at first hand our governments of both persuasions lack of confidence in our scientific engineers, The Pendulum Train was nearly completed in Derby but Thatcher withdrew the funding. Italy and Japan took up our ideas and produced their versions.
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As I understand it, the agreed EU budget for science is 7% of the total EU budget, that matches the £5.4bn out of £78bn. The missing £59.2bn is allocated by the EU to other causes. That budget is proposed by the European Commission and voted on by the European Parliament. If the European Parliament doesn't ratify it, a committee is created to make changes so that they do. So I guess you could say the EU proposed it, and our MEPs were involved in approving it. I don't believe we give that money to the EU with any control over how it is spent, other than our involvement in approving the budget.
 
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NORKIE said:
Rob bor,I couldn't agree more. Nobody knows the effect of the Referendum. It is all guesswork but doesn't stop either side from using scaremongering tactics, but then there is a lot at stake. The electorate will just have to use its judgement and hope it is the right decision.
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My hunch is that if the UK leave, others will follow and the EU will dissolve in time - maybe quickly, maybe over a period of 5-7 years.
 
NORKIE said:
Rob bor,I couldn't agree more. Nobody knows the effect of the Referendum. It is all guesswork but doesn't stop either side from using scaremongering tactics, but then there is a lot at stake. The electorate will just have to use its judgement and hope it is the right decision. There will be a lot of folk pleased when it is settled one way or the other.

Don't bet on Villa bor, never throw good money after bad LOL.
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Norkie, with respect mate, I think we're not saying the same thing - "nobody knows the effect of the Referendum" covers "the effect of the Referendum will very very likely be negative", but that doesn't make it "all guesswork". On the contrary, there is detailed research making the guesswork as limited as possible. That detailed research is what makes us understand that it is very, very likely to be negative, profound and immediate. The Brexit campaign haven't really bothered to even challenge this, because they have rightly concluded that it won't really lose them many votes because people don't really care.

I completely agree though that there will be a collective sigh of relief one way or another!

No fear on me betting on Villa <laugh> though to my shame I considered betting on us to go down now that we are around 2/1 as it might dull the pain!
 
ThaiCanary said:
My hunch is that if the UK leave, others will follow and the EU will dissolve in time - maybe quickly, maybe over a period of 5-7 years.
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One of the reasons that it is almost certain that the Brexit will be extremely painful for the UK is that the leading EU nations (Germany and France in particular) have basically assured that they will make it as unpleasant as possible in order to demonstrate to other wavering nations that they really do not want to leave.

Call it cutting of your nose to spite your face (which it would be as it would hurt the EU too, though not as much) or even scare-mongering (which it definitely is), the fact is that threat is there, real, it's justifiably scary and we should be sorely afraid of this. People won't like us being in that bind, but we no longer ride on horses and trade grain on sailing boats from Dover - we live in a globalised economy and the reality is we cannot try to delink ourselves without serious backlashes.
 
Canary Rob said:
One of the reasons that it is almost certain that the Brexit will be extremely painful for the UK is that the leading EU nations (Germany and France in particular) have basically assured that they will make it as unpleasant as possible in order to demonstrate to other wavering nations that they really do not want to leave.

Call it cutting of your nose to spite your face (which it would be as it would hurt the EU too, though not as much) or even scare-mongering (which it definitely is), the fact is that threat is there, real, it's justifiably scary and we should be sorely afraid of this. People won't like us being in that bind, but we no longer ride on horses and trade grain on sailing boats from Dover - we live in a globalised economy and the reality is we cannot try to delink ourselves without serious backlashes.
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Germany is an exporter, they sell predominantly expensive goods to wealthy countries. The powerful manufacturing lobby in Germany would be at Merkel to get a good trade deal done quickly. I agree though the French would be a nightmare mostly because EU popularity is about a low there as it is here, ironically for the opposite reasons, and they would want it to seem unattractive.

Ultimately, no matter how certainly someone says something, leaving the EU is an unknown. No eccomomist or Politician knows the answer. There genuinely could be economic advantages to leaving such as a cheaper pound would help output export market and aid things like the British Steel industry, less bureaucracy could increase entrepreneurship. Changing our immigration policies could allow us to bring in some of the brightest people from a wider pool, strategically instead of an open door. It may not be immediate but in 10 or 20 years time then the benefits could be present.

Or it could be ****.

I'm narrowly coming down for staying, basically because I believe it's the wrong moment to leave. If we stay we can vote to leave in five years or ten, but out is out. I however have zero desire to see further political integration and would like to see Europe reformed into two the ECM and the eurozone. I'm happy to stay in the trading zone (personally I see freedom of movement as good for the economy) but am not ok with the politics.

Europe in it current guise will probably fail, it needs to integrate much faster than is is to make the euro successful and even with that its unlikely to do anything other than give Germany the control as they have the money. There is a moment to jump into the darkness and were not quite there, I doubt very much though we will still be in the EU by the end of my lifetime.
 
KIO said:
Obama's visit and subsequent threats has made me even more determined to [HASHTAG]#voteleave[/HASHTAG]
Excellent article from Peter Hitchens here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...special-friend-ruined-Navy-Empire-future.html
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Ah, yes. Peter Hitchens.
The same Peter Hitchens that refers to peer-reviewed climate science as "a cult", that capital punishment is "key" to a strong justice system, and that drug addiction is "a fantasy".

Forgive me if I pay little heed to his sentiments.
 
Thinking about it, doesn't Private Eye regularly refer to Hitchens as "Bonkers"? In fact, I think they gave him a nickname along those lines - the exact name escapes me though.
 
JKCanary said:
I'm not sure what's come over me lately. I didn't think I was the sort of forum-member that gets into genuine arguments with one of the more polite and affable posters around.

I mean, arguments with Herr General and KIO I can understand, but actual arguments with yourself, Norkie? :confused:
Apologies again.
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What, what, what!!!! If I was easily offended, I'm quite sure I would be offended right now!

Bah!
 
NORKIE said:
Talking of accuracy,
In the United Kingdom, the planned June referendum on European Union membership has already created uncertainty for investors; a ‘Brexit’ could do severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships,”
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In general markets and investors always react badly to uncertainty. Look a the Greece fiasco. In the end a deal was done, which doesn't solve the problem only moves it on a few months / years, but the markets / investors were happier as there was less uncertainty for a while at least. If we vote to stay there will be a bounce in the markets, at least until the next crisis. If we vote to leave the uncertainty will continue for some time. The effect the result has on trade / business will only become apparent many years down the line.
 
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