Off Topic Mafia game: The island

[astro]

In simplistic terms we have had a 2 vs 1 room choice every day

day 1: outside(garden) vs 2 x indoors (up and downstairs)
day2: dry (desert) vs 2x Wet (sea and lake)


day 3 dry (path) vs 2x Wet (river and waterfall)

ie one bad ...2 'ok' choices.

Beginning to think that there is an ACTUAL route to the escape point that we have to negotiate

Assuming that garden was the 'wrong' choice...not sure how that has had an influence on us though ...IBWT died?
day 2 (assuming we made the 'right' choice ) BobbyD died????

Are IBWT and BobbyD deaths (both clubbed) related to our room choice?

So, not at all sure the significance of the room choices...unless its purely getting us closer or farther away from escape point

That in Mind ..I am happy to go river or waterfall...avoiding the path

I think it's a 1-1-1 choice good-neutral-bad

Day 1 garden was neutral - nothing bad happened, but it also didn't tell us which was "bad" like today (don't know which of upstairs/downstairs was good/bad)
Day 2 South was good (we learned that North was "bad"), North was bad, the sea is neutral
Day 3 jungle is bad, sea is neutral again, waterfall is good

I'm guessing on day 1 downstairs would be bad, it was a pointless option like the hills, maybe the lights go out and someone extra dies or something. If we go upstrairs maybe we learn something new, but also end up in the gardens at the end anyway because we see something that makes us run there.

Since the sea joins to both the gardens and lake, possibly yesterday choosing the sea would mean today we have the options to go back to the gardens or the lake. So neutral but a waste of time.

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

I think it's a 1-1-1 choice good-neutral-bad

Day 1 garden was neutral - nothing bad happened, but it also didn't tell us which was "bad" like today (don't know which of upstairs/downstairs was good/bad)
Day 2 South was good (we learned that North was "bad"), North was bad, the sea is neutral
Day 3 jungle is bad, sea is neutral again, waterfall is good

I'm guessing on day 1 downstairs would be bad, it was a pointless option like the hills, maybe the lights go out and someone extra dies or something. If we go upstrairs maybe we learn something new, but also end up in the gardens at the end anyway because we see something that makes us run there.

Since the sea joins to both the gardens and lake, possibly yesterday choosing the sea would mean today we have the options to go back to the gardens or the lake. So neutral but a waste of time.

What is your thinking for the waterfall being the good choice?

If your analysis is right about good/bad/neutral then it looks like so far you chose both neutral options as your first choice (which isn't suspicious, but means maybe you are possibly misreading location clues). I don't know whethert my first day choice (upstairs) was good or bad, but yesterday my first choice was also East (so neutral).

Also worth noting that Bobby wanted to go north and he was the detective, which adds weight to not reading too much into those pushing for north yesterday (ie: Style) - though Style pushed far more than anybody else for it.

 

[afcftw]

What is your thinking for the waterfall being the good choice?

If your analysis is right about good/bad/neutral then it looks like so far you chose both neutral options as your first choice (which isn't suspicious, but means maybe you are possibly misreading location clues). I don't know whethert my first day choice (upstairs) was good or bad, but yesterday my first choice was also East (so neutral).

Also worth noting that Bobby wanted to go north and he was the detective, which adds weight to not reading too much into those pushing for north yesterday (ie: Style) - though Style pushed far more than anybody else for it.

BobbyD also chose to go downstairs on the first day along with me so my assumption is not everyone knows what options to go for, but I'm sure some people do as its felt like people are pushing for certain options all the way through. I'd also suggest downstairs wasn't a bad option on the first day since no-one seemed interested in going for it!

 

[astro]

What is your thinking for the waterfall being the good choice?

If your analysis is right about good/bad/neutral then it looks like so far you chose both neutral options as your first choice (which isn't suspicious, but means maybe you are possibly misreading location clues). I don't know whethert my first day choice (upstairs) was good or bad, but yesterday my first choice was also East (so neutral).

Also worth noting that Bobby wanted to go north and he was the detective, which adds weight to not reading too much into those pushing for north yesterday (ie: Style) - though Style pushed far more than anybody else for it.

waterfall being good fits 2 patterns that I see;

1. the good-neutral-bad theory I said above
2. MITO wants us to go the more interesting place

yesterday MITO made South sound the most interesting, in terms of the detail he put into it. It seems obvious that the jungle is a bad choice like the hills were yesterday. The waterfall sounds like a more interesting place, and is completely new. Going to the sea is something we could have done yesterday.

I think:

• bad places mean you turn back because the path is difficult, but someone dies or some other punishment: downstairs(?), hills, jungle
• neutral places no one dies but nothing new learned: gardens, sea, sea
• good places drive the story forward to new places and information: upstairs(?), lake, waterfall

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

Going to add a new random thought in here....

I don't know anything about the prisoner series and I don't usually pay any attention to tags. However, if MITO has drawn his inspiration from combining a number of TV series into this then maybe someone is trying to be too clever in the tags.

"The DEAD are COMING", "Jon Snow is alive"

We know that cold is a big theme in some of the deaths. Might be worth looking for Game of Thrones links with the dead and possible white walkers?

Might well be over thinking on that one

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

all:

the game has been down since at least 8am when i went to work.

I had thought if it was not back by 2pm we should suspend the game for the day and play tomorrow board allowing.

As it is back up.

Do you all want to go on?

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

I've not even counted the votes yet.... it will take 30mins to do so and am in work. heopfully not too much in it.

 

[afcftw]

all:

the game has been down since at least 8am when i went to work.

I had thought if it was not back by 2pm we should suspend the game for the day and play tomorrow board allowing.

As it is back up.

Do you all want to go on?

As long as the site stays up until nightfall there's still loads of time for everyone to have some input so I think it's probably alright to continue as normal

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

all:

the game has been down since at least 8am when i went to work.

I had thought if it was not back by 2pm we should suspend the game for the day and play tomorrow board allowing.

As it is back up.

Do you all want to go on?

I'd be in favour of keeping going - provided we don't have any more serious outages. The mornings are usually a bit quieter anyway. I wouldn't be gutted if it was postponed though.

 

[Sir Tennisball]

OK finally caught up, here's my morning summary of how I see things at this stage.

Some clear scum (mafia/bad guys) and Town reads
At the start let me just say that based on what we saw I see 2 suspects; ACS (major suspect) and Tobes (minor suspect). I'll give my reasoning below.
I also have some fairly strong town reads on a few players and I'm sure others are getting the same, so if those are accurate (my track record is not exactly perfect) we should have a solid block of highly-probable townies who can help make the right decisions (lynches and exploration choices).
In this game it's even more important than usual that we make the right choices as a group, usually it's just lynches we have to worry about.

Chaos death
Seems like a ghost killing for sure. "This latest death is not like the others". We have ghosts for the first time due to two Day 1 killings.

Day 1 killers
Like the first kill both bodies were long dead, so as others have pointed the two voices heard night one must both have been killers. I got this wrong as I assumed the deep voice was DPP, but it couldn't have been. I still think they entered and escaped via the chimney though...

Mud trail
What is the significance of this? Does it give another clue as to what we're dealing with? Does anyone know of a movie it links to?

Gunshot in the dark
At first I thought this indicated a Vigilante type kill, as the killer seems to be from one of us players:
"A shot fires, echoing round the pool". "Nobody came in or out of here, the door had been closed all the time. The killer must be right here! "
And the method of killing (a simple gunshot) seems more in keeping with a Vigilante than a Mafia hitman or SK from previous games.
Mafia hitman seems to link to the baseball bat so I'm sure another kill would be more obviously mafia activity.
Similarly SK kills in the past usually linked to rather unique kills as they often tended to keep trophies or kill in a particular way (a hatchet/axe etc.).
Vigilante kills have pretty much always been gunshots (usually headshots as in this case) so it would be the obvious choice.
HOWEVER (I only realised this later) the one thing that doesn't make sense though is that player 21 (i.e. a non-player) was killed, and a vigilante would target a real player obviously, so I don't know what to make of it.
Personally I hope we do have a vigilante role as it means we have a killing role on our side.

BobbyD killing
Killed by a club, what role would have done this? Is this another Mafia hit like the baseball bat? Not conclusive.
Similarly to my reasoning above I don't think it looks like any other roles we know about from previous games (Vigilante or SK) so I would guess it's a mafia hit, as there wasn't another one last night. And by mafia I mean Warden/Guard team as I think they seem to be one and the same thing i.e. the primary bad guys.


my 2 suspects at the moment: ACS and Tobes:

ACS
BobbyD the detective seemed to be going for ACS on Day 2 without really giving a reason why. Knowing he was the detective the most likely scenario is that he investigated ACS on night 1 and saw he was scum (bad guy), and then voted for him on Day 2 to see who backs him or tries to save him.
I did not see BobbyD go for anyone else really so to me this means that BobbyD was killed by the mafia because they knew he was onto ACS, which made them realise that he must be an investigative role as he did not give much of a reason for going for ACS (as far as I can recall).
They knew killing BobbyD would point a finger at ACS but if they believed that BobbyD was an investigator it would be worth the risk, as he was a very powerful role for us.
For this reason ACS is my #1 suspect.

Tobes
Valley suspected early on that there was a link between Chaos and Tobes, and we now know that Chaos was a guard.
Valley was quite vocal about his suspicions and Tobes gunned for Valley as a result.
I had Tobes as one of my potential scum reads so I kept an eye on him, but it's nowhere near as concrete as the evidence against ACS.
Tobes is suspicious for these reasons but there is the voting last night in his favour, so he's only a minor suspect for now:
Chaos voted for Tobes and it was a 5-4 vote at the end so pretty close, a risky strategy if they were teammates. It might have been so that he can jump off him to Valley but it would make it quite obvious that he was saving Tobes.

I vote ACS.

Direction for exploration
I think we should go West to the waterfall. Hopefully there is something to see (maybe hidden behind the waterfall), and it's higher ground so maybe the view will help us decide the next direction.
But I'm not dead set on it, we need to discuss it as a group and see what we think is best.

 

[afcftw]

Anyone else got any thought on suspicious people who might be options for today's lynch? Question marks have been raised over Tobes, Bodanki, Style and possibly Gerrez so far. Not exactly anything concrete on any of them though! Any other names to throw into the hat? Anyone got any early theories to divulge?

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

waterfall being good fits 2 patterns that I see;

1. the good-neutral-bad theory I said above
2. MITO wants us to go the more interesting place

yesterday MITO made South sound the most interesting, in terms of the detail he put into it. It seems obvious that the jungle is a bad choice like the hills were yesterday. The waterfall sounds like a more interesting place, and is completely new. Going to the sea is something we could have done yesterday.

I think:

• bad places mean you turn back because the path is difficult, but someone dies or some other punishment: downstairs(?), hills, jungle
• neutral places no one dies but nothing new learned: gardens, sea, sea
• good places drive the story forward to new places and information: upstairs(?), lake, waterfall

Playing devil's advocate, it could be argued that the Jungle looks like the most interesting choice. However, it also would fit being the most obviously dangerous (like the arid hills). Also the garden would have appeared to be the most interesting choice compared to upstairs/downstairs. It could possible also have been seen as the most dangerous - depends if downstairs meant the floor we were already on or a cellar.

 

[afcftw]

OK finally caught up, here's my morning summary of how I see things at this stage.

Some clear scum (mafia/bad guys) and Town reads
At the start let me just say that based on what we saw I see 2 suspects; ACS (major suspect) and Tobes (minor suspect). I'll give my reasoning below.
I also have some fairly strong town reads on a few players and I'm sure others are getting the same, so if those are accurate (my track record is not exactly perfect) we should have a solid block of highly-probable townies who can help make the right decisions (lynches and exploration choices).
In this game it's even more important than usual that we make the right choices as a group, usually it's just lynches we have to worry about.

Chaos death
Seems like a ghost killing for sure. "This latest death is not like the others". We have ghosts for the first time due to two Day 1 killings.

Day 1 killers
Like the first kill both bodies were long dead, so as others have pointed the two voices heard night one must both have been killers. I got this wrong as I assumed the deep voice was DPP, but it couldn't have been. I still think they entered and escaped via the chimney though...

Mud trail
What is the significance of this? Does it give another clue as to what we're dealing with? Does anyone know of a movie it links to?

Gunshot in the dark
At first I thought this indicated a Vigilante type kill, as the killer seems to be from one of us players:
"A shot fires, echoing round the pool". "Nobody came in or out of here, the door had been closed all the time. The killer must be right here! "
And the method of killing (a simple gunshot) seems more in keeping with a Vigilante than a Mafia hitman or SK from previous games.
Mafia hitman seems to link to the baseball bat so I'm sure another kill would be more obviously mafia activity.
Similarly SK kills in the past usually linked to rather unique kills as they often tended to keep trophies or kill in a particular way (a hatchet/axe etc.).
Vigilante kills have pretty much always been gunshots (usually headshots as in this case) so it would be the obvious choice.
HOWEVER (I only realised this later) the one thing that doesn't make sense though is that player 21 (i.e. a non-player) was killed, and a vigilante would target a real player obviously, so I don't know what to make of it.
Personally I hope we do have a vigilante role as it means we have a killing role on our side.

BobbyD killing
Killed by a club, what role would have done this? Is this another Mafia hit like the baseball bat? Not conclusive.
Similarly to my reasoning above I don't think it looks like any other roles we know about from previous games (Vigilante or SK) so I would guess it's a mafia hit, as there wasn't another one last night. And by mafia I mean Warden/Guard team as I think they seem to be one and the same thing i.e. the primary bad guys.


my 2 suspects at the moment: ACS and Tobes:

ACS
BobbyD the detective seemed to be going for ACS on Day 2 without really giving a reason why. Knowing he was the detective the most likely scenario is that he investigated ACS on night 1 and saw he was scum (bad guy), and then voted for him on Day 2 to see who backs him or tries to save him.
I did not see BobbyD go for anyone else really so to me this means that BobbyD was killed by the mafia because they knew he was onto ACS, which made them realise that he must be an investigative role as he did not give much of a reason for going for ACS (as far as I can recall).
They knew killing BobbyD would point a finger at ACS but if they believed that BobbyD was an investigator it would be worth the risk, as he was a very powerful role for us.
For this reason ACS is my #1 suspect.

Tobes
Valley suspected early on that there was a link between Chaos and Tobes, and we now know that Chaos was a guard.
Valley was quite vocal about his suspicions and Tobes gunned for Valley as a result.
I had Tobes as one of my potential scum reads so I kept an eye on him, but it's nowhere near as concrete as the evidence against ACS.
Tobes is suspicious for these reasons but there is the voting last night in his favour, so he's only a minor suspect for now:
Chaos voted for Tobes and it was a 5-4 vote at the end so pretty close, a risky strategy if they were teammates. It might have been so that he can jump off him to Valley but it would make it quite obvious that he was saving Tobes.

I vote ACS.

Direction for exploration
I think we should go West to the waterfall. Hopefully there is something to see (maybe hidden behind the waterfall), and it's higher ground so maybe the view will help us decide the next direction.
But I'm not dead set on it, we need to discuss it as a group and see what we think is best.

I had totally missed that with BobbyD/ACS. Good call

Re: vigilante, I don't think the vigilante would kill a non-player character unless they have to kill all the non player characters first, possibly as a way of balancing a game that was originally meant for more players?

 

[Sir Tennisball]

Chaos being a confirmed bad guy makes the voting patterns of interest.

BobbyD stands out for me as he lumped on me following Chaos with the limpest of excuses.

I'm still convinced that the No.6 (as per the Prisoner series) has a role in this game, however, I'm now not convinced that it's as per the allotted numbers i.e. AFC.

Chaos was patently killed by the SK role, could this be tied to the No.6 character?

Only Tennis opted to not join the pack in voting South, but that might have been due to the time difference, and Bod opted out of the vote. Clues? Maybe, maybe nothing.

There seemed a real push to gain a complete consensus on the direction, was this a task for someone, or just trying to second guess a possible task that matched the theme?

I switched to South quite a while before nightfall but MITO didn't see it. Myself and two others then pointed it out but it wasn't changed in the final table. I don't think it made a difference to the result though but worth pointing out.

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

Anyone else got any thought on suspicious people who might be options for today's lynch? Question marks have been raised over Tobes, Bodanki, Style and possibly Gerrez so far. Not exactly anything concrete on any of them though! Any other names to throw into the hat? Anyone got any early theories to divulge?

My initial thoughts today have three suspects, though none of them are strong.

1. Style for pushing North very very strongly
2. Gerrez for being so quiet (could be bad luck with when the site has been down though) and not offering anything insightful even when he does post.
3. Tobes for his uncharacteristic mistakes a moment ago in his analysis (the voting link is a weak one for me for the same reasons Tennis has given)

As far as ACS goes, I don't know. He is always random and always targets me (even when he knows we're team mates ), so I have a natural tendency to ignore his actions as they don't usually make sense and are often just spur of the moment things. I'm not the best at judging ACS.

 

[afcftw]

I change my vote to ACS

 

[afcftw]

My initial thoughts today have three suspects, though none of them are strong.

1. Style for pushing Nortb very very strongly
2. Gerrez for being so quiet (could be bad luck with when the site has been down though) and not offering anything insightful even when he does post.
3. Tobes for his uncharacteristic mistakes a moment ago in his analysis (the voting link is a weak one for me for the same reasons Tennis has given)

As far as ACS goes, I don't know. He is always random and always targets me (even when he knows we're team mates ), so I have a natural tendency to ignore his actions as they don't usually make sense and are often just spur of the moment things. I'm not the best at judging ACS.

After Tennis pointed out BobbyD appeared to be after ACS he has jumped right up in my suspicion, previously he hadn't registered for me tbh lol

Then I'd have style/Tobes as suspicious due to the north thing and with Tobes the save of chaos and the admission that he thought BobbyD was after him. Followed by Gerrez last due to his lack of contribution and activity.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

ok slightly easier.. still probably wrong


Escape table:
neville: 1 vote by: ACS
ACS: 2 vote by: tennis, AFCFTW
yet to vote: RHC, Tobes, astro, Penfold, Less Hope, Bodanki, Mikey, G'inho, Nolberto,Style

Action table:
Follow the path
Follow the waterfall to the west: 1 vote by: tennis
Follow the river to the east: 1 vote by: ACS
yet to vote: RHC, Tobes, astro, Penfold, AFCFTW, Less Hope, Bodanki, Mikey, G'inho, Nolberto,Style

I will post table after night and give 15 mins then for confirmations ok... It took 1.5hours counting yesterday.

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

I'm going to vote for Style for now.

Reasons:

Style pushed very strongly for north - much much stronger than anyone else

I don't think we'll learn much if anyone is too far in the lead.
I would have voted for Gerrez as my first choice for learning something (and pushing for a response), but if he really isn't online till much later it will be a wasted few hours.

Tobes can be watched in his general postings now that people are pointing the finger again.

 

[astro]

ok slightly easier.. still probably wrong


Escape table:
neville: 1 vote by: ACS
ACS: 2 vote by: tennis, AFCFTW
yet to vote: RHC, Tobes, astro, Penfold, Less Hope, Bodanki, Mikey, G'inho, Nolberto,Style

Action table:
Follow the path
Follow the waterfall to the west: 1 vote by: tennis
Follow the river to the east: 1 vote by: ACS
yet to vote: RHC, Tobes, astro, Penfold, AFCFTW, Less Hope, Bodanki, Mikey, G'inho, Nolberto,Style

I will post table after night and give 15 mins then for confirmations ok... It took 1.5hours counting yesterday.

I voted waterfall first