Still reading through and I'll be busy for a while at work before I can post again, but I found some very interesting info when reading through again that I'll throw out there so long.
My initial thoughts are that we obviously had a very good result for Day 1, and I think the town role guys made some good calls last night for their actions.
The key things I'm looking for when reading back was:
1) Why target ACS and JPF, what did they do to attract attention, and who picked up on it? Who were they gunning for?
Answering these questions will give me a clue as to who has town roles, who is not in ACS & JPF's teams (so could be town or other evil teams).
2) What is the deal with Gerrez and afcftw? afc was especially vague, I want to look at his post history and look for clues.
Results:
OK so I haven't had time to read through everything or geta look at ACS yet, but found some very interesting stuff when looking at JPF and afcftw.
The below posts refer to the page they're on, my comments are after the '@' sign each time.
JPF Posts
pg15
JPF - balance of probability it is likely 2 of mito, lucaaas and Neville are evil and the other is the medium
@ suspicious. so those 3 likely to be town or at least not JPF's team. Trying to get Medium to reveal. Looks very guilty.
pg16
JPF - investigations must be random and secret, we cannot have three people publically chosen, because if you're evil, you flip it to appear good, if you're good, other's might flip to turn you bad. The evil players with an ability to flip must not know who we target.
@ very suspicious. So evil guys can flip investigations, this is not in OP so he must be on an evil team, massive tell this. Sure someone else like MITO and Neville will pick up on this.
pg17
JPF - Hang on... Why wouldn't the medium reveal himself? Can't be lynched and the evil team/s can apparently use him to win? Why would they kill him? Seems more likely we should expend his usefulness then tactically push him off a cliff
@ suspicious. Trying to out Medium, very suspicious.
pg18
JPF - I say try to kill both and the truth will be revealed thereafter
@ suspicious. So definitely not in same team as Obi or Gerrez, trying to get both killed.
JPF Conclusion:
We know now that JPF was evil, but even at the time he gave a fair few hints so I'm sure that's why he was targeted by a killing town role, nice work!
1. One thing that is very important for the investigator(s) to know is that investigations can be flipped judging by his comment!
2. Seeing who JPF targeted I would very confidently say that mito, lucaaas, Neville, Obi and Gerrez are not part of JPF's evil team. It does not mean that they are all innocent as they could be on another evil team (at this stage I'm assuming there are at least 2), but it's good to remember. Once we kill someone from another evil team we can put 2 and 2 together and see who is likely to be town.
3.As it is I think I have a fairly good read on a few people that I believe have town roles. The sooner we each identify likely innocents (obviously I won't say who the are) the better the town actions will be to identify and kill evil guys.
afcftw Posts
(I read back and edited my comments once I knew about the Dude stuff, I didn't pick up on them at the time only once they started going at it. I wanted to figure out if afc was going at it strongly like Gerrez or only started later on)
pg10
afcftw - Dude, completely forgot about this!
I'm busy during the day but will catch up later!
Placeholder vote for Gerrez incase I don't make it back before nightfall!
@ suspicious. First post in game, uses Dude but then votes Gerrez, very odd. Can't be same team, could just have been a manner of speaking especially if he saw how much Gerrez was saying Dude.
pg19
afc - Catching up on reading the thread, got about half an hour before I'm heading out and then won't be back on until some time later tonight after nightfall!
@ suspicious. second post on thread but no keyword, did not use Dude at all. If he got the same PM as Gerrez about being in a competition about using keywords surely he would have done so.
pg19
afc - Some observations:
Gerrez obviously has to use some odd words or has some kind of task to complete. Why he is trying to drag me into it I have no idea! Maybe because I voted for him earlier?
If gerrez is telling the truth about having to say certain things then I think we can assume Obi is either on a team with him or is the medium.
Obi used mondo before gerrez and gerrez claims that is one of the words, so either they are in it together or Obi knows the words because he is the medium and got told everything. Why would he then say the word though and link himself to gerrez? Unless maybe he was trying to highlight it so others would notice. Not sure. I'd investigate Obi, kill gerrez (since we have nothing better to go on and he is trying to take me down as usual lol)
@ suspicious. Explains the whole thing about keywords, can't be on same wavelength as Gerrez. No one would blow the game open like that surely? Was not under too much pressure at this stage it was all on Gerrez. Also speculating on who is Medium which is very non-innocent thing to do!
pg19
afc - If there's a way to search for words on the forum you'll see I refer to people as dude fairly regularly!
@ suspicious. Proven to be untrue later.
pg20
afc - By putting my opinion out there on who to investigate? Dude, people can choose what they want, me making that comment hardly guarantees that's the way things will go
Why are you so sure there is an ability to flip investigates by the way?
@ suspicious. Only now starts to use Dude regularly, probably to save his own skin. Has realised that his earlier way of handling the issue with Gerrez isn't going to work, so starts to go balls to the wall using Dude etc like Gerrez.
afcftw Conclusion:
I don't believe afcftw's story one bit after reading through. I got conned last night as I found Gerrez's explanation to be likely to be true and I didn't want to lynch an innocent. I still partly believe Gerrez's version and think it's likely he did get a PM saying it's a competition as he has consistently used the keywords throughout the thread. However I 100% believe afcftw was not aware of it, either his PM was not as clear as Gerrez's or he latched onto it later on as a survival technique.
Likely explanation is:
1) Gerrez is telling the truth about him and afc's competition, Gerrez is innocent and afc evil. However afc was not given the full story like Gerrez. (Likely)
2) Gerrez is telling the truth about him and afc's competition, Gerrez is innocent and afc evil. Afc was given the full story but just handled it very badly. (Unlikely.)
3) Gerrez is telling the truth about him and afc's competition, Gerrez is innocent and afc innocent. (Very unlikely.)
4) Gerrez is telling the truth about him and afc's competition, Gerrez is evil and afc evil. (Unlikely. If they were both evil they would have handled differently. EDIT: unless on separate evil teams, could be true.)
5) Gerrez has to say those keywords but afc is not involved, he just latched onto it. Could be evil or good. (Likely)
6) Gerrez and afc are both talking absolute rubbish about the keywords. Could be evil or good. (Unlikely, Gerrez has been consistent from the start)
Not sure if I missed any scenarios out. I believe (1) or (5) are the most likely.
Gerrez has been consistently using the keywords and at this stage I believe he's telling the truth. However looking at afc's post history he almost certainly is talking rubbish, he certainly tried to make Gerrez look guilty at first and had no idea what was going on (I think he used Dude as a general phrase rather than a keyword), but then when he realised that he was looking very suspicious he decided to follow Gerrez' lead and go for it 100% and use them all the time.
I'm not sure what this means for Gerrez. I propose we lynch afc and see what the result is.
I vote afcftw for the lynch.
I can't see him being an innocent after the way he acted and changed his story, I'm sure he is evil.
If he is evil then that means Gerrez could be innocent and telling the truth, or he could be evil, it's not conclusive.
If he is innocent then we'd have to see what his role is, he certainly did not act like an innocent.
Like the guys said before you act on what you see before you. After looking back afc looks extremely guilty to me so I think he should be lynched, the outcome will tell us more about Gerrez.
(if only we had a QT board for you guys to read my thoughts throughout yesterday
