The ground at York is definitely going to be at least Good to Soft today, so that immediately eliminates the 1:55, 3:05, 4:20 and 4:55 as betting propositions. On the ratings, Group 2 runner-up Tasleet only has to come out of the stalls to win the opener giving just 5lb to most of the field. Jordan Princess will probably come good today in the 4:20 without my money weighing it down.
The Lowther Stakes at 2:30 looks like a good renewal. The talk has all been of supplemented Johnston filly Lumiere, who absolutely bolted up at Newmarket on her debut and is clearly very well regarded although the form looks suspect. Kevin Ryan’s Ashadihan chased home Illuminate at Royal Ascot, a form line that suggests she will beat a couple of these; however, that was on quicker ground. I was very impressed by BESHARAH at Ascot when she comfortably accounted for Great Page in the Princess Margaret Stakes and the ground will be no problem.
The Yorkshire Oaks at 3:40 sees just two older fillies trying to rest the prize from the three-year-olds. It is hard to fancy Miss Marjurie at this grade as she was well beaten by Lady Tiana in a Group 2 at Haydock (I backed her!). The biggest problem is where the pace is going to come from as several of these like to be tracking the leader rather than leading themselves. That includes Hugo Palmer’s improving filly COVERT LOVE, who holds many of the others on form lines from the Irish Oaks placed horses Jack Naylor and Curvy. Those wanting to take the Arabian Queen form literally will be on Lady Of Dubai from the Nassau Stakes.
Those with an eye on the St Leger should probably take the 12/1 Covert Love before 3:40.
