Off Topic Afcftw Mafia Game

Thanks, that helps. I must be honest I haven't looked at the tags much at all, after the last game as avenging angel I know first hand you can throw the game away by listening to what's in there. But judging by what you said it could have been helpful in Funky's case. I still think it's very strange that meth head went for funky, I really hope mafia can't tell meth head who to kill.

 

Apologies for the two long posts above, it started off as a reply to Sebb for why I voted him, and eventually it evolved into a kind of summary of where my thinking is at right now. Thought it would be useful to have it all in one place, as there are a few suspects that I'm looking at, and I'd like to see how many people agree or disagree with me and the other posters I've quoted.

 

I agree about the tags. They usually do more harm than good. If it hadn't been in the context of posts on the thread and now knowing who is dead and can be trusted 100% then I would have taken them with a pinch of salt. Might be worth looking if anyone we know we can trust has liked any of my very recent posts to get a feel of whether my read of the schizo's actions were correct.

As for who i suspect, it is still very much in the order I started the day. The problem I have is that I only suspect 2 people: Lucaas most of all followed by Sebb. The fact they have both voted for each other is a real problem - but is it also the best way to hide the other person?

We know there are 3 bad ones to find. As well as the 2 mafia there is also the SK. Bobby is neither a suspected 'baddie' nor 'townie' for me. I am trying to keep an open mind that there might be reasons why certain townies might be quiet too. Everything is guess work.

From my point of view we are looking at the right 2 people at the minute. It is really important we take out at least one, and prefarably two bad players tonight. I wouldn't be unhappy going for either of them. However, the most important thing is that we have a decisive vote. The 'bait and switch' tag from earlier concerns me. I know its just a tag but the truth applies regardless. The people who will benefit most from a close vote and from genuine confusion about who to vote for are the mafia. We know there are still 2 left which leaves any vote open to late swings.

 

This is what worries me, it's so hard to get a read on the quiet guys, and there has been no pressure on them to contribute so far really. I bet most people have struggled to get a read on Lucaaas, BobbyD and Sebb. Sebb has posted more lately to be fair, although you can view the change in behaviour in two ways I guess.

On your read of myself:
valley would never have lined me up for investigation as I was the runaway leader for lynching (pg 88-89), late on it was looking like a coin toss lynch with 30 minutes to go. Valley would not want to waste an investigation on someone who had a 50% chance of being killed. Swarbs broke the tie with 2 minutes to go and voted for Tash. I looked back through the posts to see who Valley was going to investigate but haven't seen any post saying who it was. If I recall Valley didn't say who he was going to investigate that day.
Valley was killed by SK not mafia. Mafia act first so he was definitely not targeted by Mafia, although it seems like they had no kills left.

 

I'm still unsure and seem to have a lot less evidence and logic on which to go than you guys.

At the moment, the only thing I have to lean on is that both Lucaaas and Sebb have had plenty of suspicion and accusations thrown at them this game but nothing has stuck. They have both been on each other, and suggested that the serial killer and meth head take the other out, but that has not happened. So if there is some mafia power to interfere with the investigations and actions that would suggest it is being used to protect one of them.

I would have to say my closest read right now is that one of Lucaaas and Sebb must be Mafia. The question of who is their partner still remains tho'.

Lucaaas has been consistently supported by Bodanki, and also by you at times. You retracting your vote is quite suspicious imo - could be that you and Lucaaas were hoping to get early votes for Sebb and are now trying to distance yourselves from each other. I can't see why else you would remove a vote that can always be changed later on. Also you still have that 67% Mafia read hanging over you, which you have also managed to escape any real scrutiny for.

Sebb is harder to pick out, as he has not really had anyone support him. Although he does seem to have taken a good look at everyone except Bobby. He hasn't cast any real suspicion over Bobby for a vote, but has consistently said he should be the target of the meth head. But the meth head has never been near Bobby, which perhaps indicates some Mafia ability to influence the meth head's kills?

So yes, lots of suspicion and guess work, but nothing really to go on as hard evidence.

 

I agree, pretty much what I said earlier, we need a clear lynch vote on someone the majority of us think is guilty. Target #1 for a clear lynch, target #2 for meth head, really hope he is able to pick his own kills and goes for #2. The we just hope one of them is SK, and if not that SK takes out a mafia. I'm happy to vote Lucaaas for lynch if we have more backers, so far it's just the two of us and Sebb who suspect Lucaaas. I see Swarbs suspects him too now so I vote Lucaaas.

 

The other side of the coin is the serial killer. I have to say I also have suspicions over Sir Tennisball for this, and also Neville.

You are both being very helpful to the town and focused on finding the Mafia based on who supports who. But that is **** all use when finding the serial killer. In fact TB's latest post basically indicates he thinks we should be hoping the SK helps us, rather than trying to get find him and get rid of him.

And tbh I wouldn't put it past ACS to have MITO investigate the SK then have the 67% rule find him as Mafia instead. Or have him activate as SK after the investigation just to throw us all right off the scent.

 

We need to hear more from others.

In the meantime Lucaas is looking the more likely out of Sebb and him to get a clear majority so I vote Lucaas.

 

My retraction of my vote was clearly explained above, I thought it was Neville's vote for Sebb not Lucaaas' vote.
Don't know where you got your evidence from that I ever supported Lucaaas Swarbs, care to enlighten me? I stated in my first of two posts that I list him 50/50, hardly a ringing endorsement. All I did was admit that ACS said he was innocent, which might mean he investigated him by how clearly he stated it.
Lucaaas has been online so rarely that hardly anyone has had any interaction with him. He voted for me that one day when afc forgot to count his vote, that's about it.

Like I said I have a town read on you, was 70% but with ACS' doubts on you it's sitting at around 60% now. The fact that you also suspect Lucaaas and Sebb is a positive sign at least we have quite a few players agreeing on who needs to get put up for lynching and meth killing. We can't have this vote go down to the wire, we need to give Meth Head a clear run at our #2 target.

 

ACS has liked my post about who he targeted/investigated. I think we can take it as read now that this info is correct.

 

Tbh that was more triggered by you and him immediately voting for Sebb one after another. Looked like you might have been trying to push Sebb early and hoping people would latch on, then rowed back when they didn't.

Also, as you say, the best reads we seem to have on players are 60-70% based on working things out. Whereas we have a 67% identification of you as Mafia based on a factual investigation. The objective side of me doesn't want to let that go no matter how helpful you appear to be being now! After all, better an uncertain but objective result than an uncertain and subjective guess imo!

 

Yes.

Or just ACS being a ****.

Watch him now like this post as well...

 

Swarbs, I don't know if you're playing devil's advocate or what. Trying to figure you out...
I said "Target #1 for a clear lynch, target #2 for meth head, really hope he is able to pick his own kills and goes for #2. The we just hope one of them is SK, and if not that SK takes out a mafia." Nowhere do I say I hope the SK helps us rather than try to find and kill him.
I said we need to hopefully kill SK, but if we miss him hope that he kills mafia. It's common sense, no one is going to say that they hope we miss the SK or that SK kills a townie.

I'm looking at the numbers and I still think SK is the biggest threat due to being able to kill, but also harder to find as he is a solo team, at least with mafia there is hopefully some teaming up we can see.
The way i see it, we have 7 players (4 town & 3 scum), we will lynch one person, one other person will be killed and probably two.
Once we get down to 5 or 4 players then if there is still a 2 man mafia team they are incredibly powerful.
I hope we kill the SK but think it's more likely we'll kill a mafia as there are 2 of them, and once we do then we will hopefully be able to figure out who the second mafia is. That is the key to finding the SK, is to eliminate possibilities. Not only does finding a mafia give us the other potential mafia, but also gives us other townies that we can trust more.
Right now we are looking at reads and looking at who is acting scum/non-town. If we get those reads right we will win this game, if we get them wrong and lynch townies then we lose, simple as that. Once we find one or hopefully two non town roles, we will hopefully find the others by association.

 

Which number post was that Neville? Haven't updated my notes that far yet...

 

post 2399

 

Okay - Valley getting killed by SK is means you are less guilty in my book.

I know Valley said he was investigating MITO that night but i wasn't sure if that was a bluff. On that day i had advocated Valley to investigate you all day so that we could find out of if you were town/non town which would then give us more of a read on MITO hence i thought he might have been investigating you.

You only then got saved from the lynch (to be fair which i instigated until i took a step back and looked at the bigger picture) when i advocated Valley investigate you (you and MITO went neck and neck) and i used what i thought were clues to Tash's innocence and campaigned for Tash to be lynched (which i was wrong sorry tash!).

 

Found it, thanks! Nice to know who was investigated to clear up any assumptions based on ACS' opinions of people.
So Lucaaas wasn't investigated... Thought you had gone for a similar strategy to me today but seems not! We'll see what the rest of today brings, think we're on track so far.

 

I haven't got as far as working out a strategy beyond going for the one I think is most obvious

 

You might want to edit the underlined bit and correct it BobbyD! Unless that was a massive giveaway that you are non town!

 

. I'm not going to lie about what i did. That itself is more incriminating. Although the end result was poor the underlying logic to it all was sound and the other thing is if that incriminates myself, it means i was doing it to save you ultimately . That means you'll be guilty with me