Off Topic Afcftw Mafia Game

@afcftw Whats the table look like right now?

 

Pretty sure it's just Lucaaas and Tennisball on Sebb thus far.

Oh, and Greez, ACS and Bodanki all over Emilia Clarke

 

Edited this earlier post a second time as I made a mistake in my first edit, after reading through again I corrected my comment.

 

Morning all

Going to read back and then give my reads. (at least that shouldn't take as long as previous nights)

 

Ok, my take on things.

The biggest read is that this game is a total mind **** as I am now getting more innocent reads than I was yesterday but the chances of getting guilty reads should have increased!

One new observation that might (or might not) be helpful is that it looks like we might be seeing some possible pairings. This could be a tell. The problem is that each pairing doesn't tie in with what I am seeing in terms of possible guilt. However, I'll post them anyway in case it confirms any thoughts by others who might be able to shed more light on things.

1. I think there seems to be a suggestion that Sebb and Swarbs are connected. I don't see it myself, but if ACS was one of the ones seeing it then it deserves attention as he should have had some game insights. This is tempered by the fact that Obi agreed at one point - but that could just have been more stirring.

2. Myself and SirTennis seem to have been backing each other up as having a feel as townies a lot. We also seem to have similar reads on people - though not identical.

3. I get the impression Bodanki and Lucas trust each other and have backed each other up a few times - not least in trying to use Obi's info against me.

4. I can't read any links to Bobby. This doesn't need to mean anything other than him sitting back a bit for whatever reason (could still be a good or bad reason).

These pairings are just thoughts. Even if they are correct in terms of how people have acted then it doesn't mean they are on the same team. They could be down to people mistakenly trusting each other, or they could have been pairings we have been helped to perceive in order to distract or protect.

 

Who won?

I'm in

 

I vote: RHC

 

I think we just found the meth head....

 

In terms of indiviuals, this is where I am at.

Me - I am an innocent townie but then, just like everyone else, I would say that.

Bodanki - I still believe he is town, even though he seems to be convinced I am non-town. I believe this is down to mistaken reads rather than anything sinister. I am fairly sure that he was completing tasks in order to get an investigation, which he then carried out on Mikey. He posted it before I posted my outing of Mikey. I know he believes I just copied his suggestion after he posted, so I urge him (and others) to read back and see that I had already said I was writing a long post and also see that I would have had to type very quickly to type all of that up so soon after his post went live. It also wouldn't explain why I was leaving breadcrumbs all the previous day explaining I was on a task and leaving clues that I knew it was Mikey, while never mentioning Mikey's name once. Read the post just after the outing post to confirm this. I believe that Bodanki is town and thatw e would benefit from your insights if you could just read again.

Swarbs - I believe is also town for the same reason as Bodanki. I don't understand why they both investigated the same person, but both seemed to confirm Mikey independently of each other.

SirTennis - all my reads of him say town. However, We have collectively given him the benefit of the doubt about the 2/3 possibility since night one. There were two other investigations that night (according to ACS). Valley investigated Tobes and he was confirmed to be a correct call as Mafia. ACS said (in tags) that he investigated Funky on night one which is why he was certain Funky was town, again proved to be correct. This still leaves the 2/3 factor, but makes me wonder if the mafia were only able to take out the investigation powers after night one. Everything about his posts and how he has acted tells me to trust SirTennis. However, the longer we go on not finding mafia the more I have to wonder if we should just be listening to the 2/3 thing.

Sebb - I perceived that he started the game much quieter than he would usually have done and now seems to have sprung to life. Is that cos he was busy or cos he was hiding? My suspicion is non-town but it is not a strong conviction. I am less convinced than I was yesterday that he is non-town, but based on contributing more I suppose I would be.

Lucas - same as Sebb. Seems to be coming more to life. I think any quiet players with roles has to do this though. No strong convictions, but based on hunches alone he is probably my main read as non-town.

Bobby - honestly, no clue. Cannot read anything about him. Is that a clue on its own? I don't know.

Just throwing these out there. Still don't know who to vote for. Sebb and Lucas would seem to be the way to go, but would prefer input from others first.

I have usually suspected everyone and their dog by this stage of the game but I'm not picking up the reads.

 

Just to register a vote at this stage

LUCAAS

 

For being quieter I was reading all the posts. Given who was in at that stage that was not easy to do.

 

RHC always gets my vote ...... have you missed me sweetie

 

His groin has definitely missed you.

He hasn't pulled it for at least a week now...

 

Post 1 of 2

From my side the explanation is pretty simple as I've given it all before, I'll try link it all up now.

Tennisball (pg 111-112):
I posted my 3 long posts covering a bunch of topics but the third one was my reads on a few of the players.
I asked for other players to give theirs views on others as well and so far Neville, yourself and ACS have done so, which to be honest is a positive view of you as I suspect mafia to try avoid giving their views if possible, hence me asking everyone to give theirs.
Basically I said (at the time, my views fluctuate with all the twists and turns):
Neville - think town (90%)
ACS - leaning towards him being town (70%)
Swarbs - seems to be town (70%) and I think no role
Bodanki - seems to be town (60%) and I think no role
Lucaaas - no idea as he's been quiet like previous games, so 50/50 on him
Sebb - I made no mention of you as I'm undecided, did not have enough experience of playing with you to know if you were town or non-town this game. Same for the rest of the NUFC board guys.

I then mentioned that I have too many town reads on all the players I had played against before, and no idea of the NUFC board guys that I didn't know. I was hoping that meant they were guilty but did not want to discount the chance that I was just reading people badly.
I specifically asked you and Neville to give your opinions on them as I know you are both good players and I respect your reads on people. You two duly obliged.

Neville replied with (pg 111-112) (summarised version):
Mikey - Mikey is Pablo.
Me - I am an innocent townie with no (more) powers.
ACS - I am 90% convinced that ACS is an important part of the town and on our side.
Swarbs/Bodanki - I am 70% sure both are town.
SirTennisball - This is where it gets confusing. Based on posts and actions alone I'd be 70% sure that he was a townie. He has been constructive and helpful. However, we have the investigation from MITO, who we now know was the PI. On it's own this said that Tennis was 67% mafia. We also know that we have to treat investigation results very carefully now. Something strange is going on with the results. Balancing things out I'd say I was 55% sure Tennis is a townie. Lots of muddy water though.
Bobby/Sebb - too quiet. I've had limited contact with Bobby in these games before but when I did he contributed much more. Similarly, I have never seen Sebb so quiet. Neither has done anything to attract suspicion - other than not doing enough. This seems out of character but isn't evidence on its own. We have killed three quiet players now and we just killed three innocent townies. Did we just go for the wrong quiet ones? These two have been less quiet than Nobby and Rolando. Is that an attempt to not appear quiet by doing just enough? I'd say I was 55% sure these two could be NON-Town.
Lucas - Very very quiet. out on his own in that regard with the exception of Tash. Has been online at nightfall without voting. Others have said he always plays a quiet game though. So perhaps this is not evidence. 60% sure Lucas is NON-Town.
My advice tonight is to go lynch Mikey and for the Meth head to go after one of the two I've put as 55% likely to be non-town and for schizo to go after the one I have put as 60% likely to be non-town, for no other reason than they are already arranged like that above.
I think we are bound to start hitting positive results soon. the numbers are starting to come a bit more into our favour in terms of chance.

you (Sebb) replied with (pg 113-114):
Mikey - Pablo. Last of the Cartel.
No Chance - have believed him to be Townie. No Chance is the only one to compete with MITO on number AND volume of comments. No Chance has played like this before and wos "good guy". Also the other night when on in the early hours by himself probably arguing with himself suggests Townie or very sad "bad guy". I go for Townie.
ACS - Again have played with Chippy before and his playing style (if that's what you call it) is reminiscent of when he has been a "bad guy". He flatters to deceive (or at least that's what all his partners have said) by making comments in bursts but if you look at what he has actually said, there's nothing in it (again like his favoured chinos). For me I'm inclined that Chippy is Mafia.
SWARBS - Hard to read. If pushed I would guess Town but contrary to No Chance I haven't seen many leading comments to help the Town. Still have suspicions though.
Bodanki - To me he has played a very quiet game in the background. Leaning towards Schizo or Meat Head. Would be saying not Mafia.
Sir T - We have the info suggesting he is Mafia. I think he is Town. Helpful comments and too visible, although that might have been forced due to the info. (Hiding in front of everyone). On the balance when looking at others I would say Town.
Bobby - Quiet and in the background. Would put him down as Schizo or Meth Head. Not seen anything to say "bad guy".
Me - townie.
Lucaas - To me Lucaas is the other Mafia. Too quiet, non voting for no sound reason.i.e his vote wouldn't make a difference to outcome. Not sure why as Mafia he would adopt that stance as ultimately going to make him visible. But been no help to Town at all in game and no apparent attempt to aid Town either makes me believe he is the other Mafia.
Obi - Where do you begin. Think No Chance hit the nail on the head when he said Obi's out to win and the likes are his method to this. Still hasn't even tried to explain why his first list of 3 seems to be all wrong despite Obi's claim that at least 1 was correct. If 1 is then perhaps Obi could say which one.
Summary:
1. Lynch - Mikey
2. Schizo - Lucaas
3. Meat Head - Chippy/Bobby

 

Heres what i have bearing in mind i haven't been taking notes (i'm at work) and its from my mind + i have not really been following closely this weekend.

Neville - My only townie read. I know some people were jumping on Neville after he stated his very complicated story but i believe him. AFC has made this Mafia game complicated and so i believe neville. He didn't need to come out with this ridiculous story and he has and it has nailed mikey (apparantly some people offered mikey up before but without explanations why they thought he was pablo?).

SirTennis - He looks like a town, sounds like a town but is he a town? MITO investigated him and thought he one. Bearing in mind MITO is only 66% correct. Valley i think was going to investigate Tennis but he got lopped off...can't remember if it was the SK or mafia who killed him. If it was Mafia, maybe we should be more suspicious?

Lucas - Very quiet - no read,

Bod - Guilty? Piped up a bit over past few days but has acted funny throughout and that doesn't sit well with me. Obviously its task related but for who? SK? Mafia? Meth Head? My read is he is SK

Sebb - again been too quiet for my liking. Morgan is a smart man. No read on him.

Swarbs - has helped out intermittently. His avatar pick is shady though and he's a manc. Mafia (but that is a total total guess)

 

Post 2 of 2

So now I had to look at your two opinions and see what they said about the players I didn't know much about. Bear in mind I already strongly believe Neville is town while I'm neutral regarding yourself so if you two differ I would side with Neville's opinion if it sounds reasonable to me, but I would still be keen to see your reasoning.
Comparison:
Mikey - both agree Cartel. (Aligned. Agree with my view)
ACS - Neville says 90% town and you said potential mafia. (Major difference in opinion. I believed him to be 70% town so agree with Neville and I think Neville is town, so I was 80% sure ACS was town then, and suspicious of you as a result.)
Swarbs - Neville says 70% town and you are suspicious but think town. (Aligned. ties in with my 70% town view.)
Bodanki - Neville says 70% town and you say Town role. (Aligned. Agree with my 60% call but I think no role due to anger at Meth Head.)
SirTennisball - Neville says 55% town but is suspicious and you say much the same. (Aligned. Agree with each other and not trying to frame me as mafia.)
BobbyD - Neville says 55% NON TOWN and you say Town role but both say he is quiet so not too sure. (Not aligned, but marginal call as he's so hard to read being quiet, I also don't know what to make of BobbyD so disagreeing slightly on this one is not a problem for me)
Lucaaas - Neville says 60% NON TOWN and you say suspicious but think he is town. (Partially aligned. We're all not sure and neville thinks non town, so definitely one to keep an eye on)

Now for the kicker, your views of each other:
Neville - You say Townie or very sad "bad guy" but side with Townie. (Agree with my view so puts more faith in me that Neville is indeed town and can be trusted)
Sebb - Neville says 55% NON TOWN, says you are not quiet but not helping town enough. (Not conclusive, just a marginal NON TOWN call)

So overall not too many differences in opinions, lots of similar reads on the people I am not familiar enough with.
Major difference on ACS who turned out to be innocent and the Schizo, and who was killed by the SK that night. This was one of the major factors in thinking that you are possibly guilty. Anyone can get reads wrong, and we all do, but this is a major read difference so suspicious to me.
The only other thing really was Neville thinking you could be NON TOWN, although it was marginal.

Must be honest, at that point I was suspicious of you but by no means convinced.

Then ACS gives his views (pg 113-114). I already suspected him to be town and he turns out to be Schizo, so even more reason to trust his calls, especially if he managed to investigate someone (25% chance):
Mikey - Pablo so dead (Aligned. agree with us)
Less Than- Despite obi's mischief I've flipped and now thing he is town... (Aligned. agree with us)
ACS - Ignore the beelers lads. I'm proper town on every level.
SWARBS - wasn't sure at all about him but he's just sided with Sebb so this may be a bit fishy. (Suspects Swarbs, I may have got my read on Swarbs wrong. ACS is 50/50 on him so in my opinion I'm 60% town on Swarbs now)
Bodanki - A fellow townie I reckon as he has a nice username. (Aligned. And pretty conclusive, maybe a investigation result?)
Sir T - I've thought he was Mafia for quite a while but now I reckon he is town. (Aligned. agree with us)
Bobby - I have my suspicions he may be the serial killer (if I die tonight this will confirm). (Aligned in a way. None of us are sure of him and know what to think)
Sebb - He's been quieter than normal.. big time. As we're at the business end of the game he's come out of the shadows and immediately fingered me as the mafia when the consensus is that I aren't. His 'evidence' is weaker than our defence at the Toon. - Mafioso guaranteed. (Strong words, even more certain than Neville.)
Lucaas - Innocent townie. (Aligned. And pretty conclusive, maybe a investigation result?)
Obi - He's just pulling our pisser lads. He's like that normally and has, for a change been clearly leaving most of these tags. Normally I'm the tag king but I've been outdone here. He's a harmless old Jedi who pisses the bed still (JPF told me).

I know it may have just been revenge for your views on him but did suspect you more after ACS' post. A few other candidates that are suspicious though, but I would have wanted you up there as one of our 3 targets if other players agreed.

At this stage I still wanted more feedback from other players, but no one else has really given their views. I knew Neville suspected you but thought that he suspected others more than you.
However when he voted for you I guessed he suspected you more than others so backed my above analysis and went with him. Like Swarbs I want to hear his reasoning as to why you rather than some others that I've listed as suspicious above.
Major factor in addition to the above analysis is Neville I believe to be 90% town and ACS was town, they know you better than me and both seem to think you're mafia, it ties in with my suspicions so I'm going with them. We can't afford to get this one wrong so at least in my mind I've thought this through and have a sound reason for voting for you.

 

Bagsy first

 

Fair comment.

Ask No Chance about Chippy though and the way he plays. This game was very similar to the Mafia Game on the Toon board where Chippy turned out to be Mafia. That was my read on him.

Also others who are staying quiet. There are 3 "bad" guys left and there are to many quiet ones not giving reasons for their decisions.

I'm as confused as hell as to who is what but can just say I am definitely a Townie and am not sure that No Chance has actually voted for me as opposed to you and Lucaas being the ones voting for me. Lucaas I would expect to as I am saying he is Mafia which is why I am looking to you, No Chance and Swarbs.

 

I haven't voted for Sebb - I was hoping for others to post before making my vote. I suspect Sebb, but you were correct that I suspect somebody else more.

You were away on Saturday so it's understandable that you missed all that was going on in the tags and then again in posts that Funky made about his secret role and then deleted in the hope that the serial killer wouldn't see them (unfortunately the meth head didn't see them either and killed him).

The schizo confirmed in tages what his actions had been. I believe them based on the conversation that was going on at the time and the fact that ACS is usually the tag king.

Night 1 - Chose Funky and got investigate with the result he was a townie (now confirmed)
Night 2 - Chose Bobby and got protect
Night 3 - Says a PM mix up meant he didn't act
Night 4 - said he was going to investigate Bobby (which fits with his suspicions in posts)

Then next day said he had chosen Rolando who had been taken out by the serial killer so got no result.

Then Night 5 he died.

I was more suspicious of Lucaas before yesterday. My suspicions of Lucaas increased yesterday due to the fact that he had clearly been avoiding voting even when it was obvious who was being voted for. He says there was no point voting cos it would have made no difference to the result on the night Tobes was lynched and because he didn't know which way to vote on night 4 and didn't want to take out an innocent. Yesterday he was also not voting for Mikey and when challenged by Swarbs said that there was no point voting as Mikey was going to be lynched with or without his vote. However, when pushed as to whether this was a ploy to gain powers he then quickly voted for Mikey. This, to me, is the strongest suspicious tell we have so far. I don't know why he wasn't voting, but when it becomes a pattern then it draws attention. I wondered if he mafia were trying to earn another hit - it makes no sense that they haven't been killing, especially as some key roles have been fairly obvious. Then last night he was the first person to vote and did so without explanation. The fact he voted for Sebb is one of the reasons my suspicions of Sebb are slightly less than yesterday. However, there was a tag (now gone) that said 'bait and switch' so maybe the current votes are part of a plan rather than indications of what people think. I'm only guessing but at the moment this is where I am leaning. Would really like input from others though as to what they think. Bod has been online and stayed quiet again. I suspect he is doing similar and waiting to see what others post to gain tells.

 

I must apologise, I logged on as I woke up this morning, saw the vote for you and somehow thought it was Neville! I know I was half asleep but their avatars don't even look the same! I know I read the posts I missed in the night and it was just Neville and Obi Wan posting, so when I saw the vote for you I just assumed it was Neville as I knew Obi can't vote. Looking back now I see Lucaaas just posted a vote with no reasoning straight after the Neville/Obi conversation.

Like I posted above I knew Neville suspected Lucaaas and Sebb, and I thought he was more suspicious of Lucaaas. I had decided to see what others thought but if I had to make a call between the two I'd go with Neville's gut feel, so when I thought he went for you I followed. I'm a moron when half asleep...

I'd like to remove my vote for now. Neville, who are your main suspects today? Lucaaas, Sebb and Bobby in that order roughly, or swap Sebb and Bobby? Looking at my above posts ACS was pretty certain Lucaaas was innocent though, the rest of us unsure. Bobby just very quiet.

Would really like the guys who haven't done so to give their opinions on all the players! That would be Swarbs, Lucaaas, and Bodanki, and Obi Wan if he wants to.