Off Topic Afcftw Mafia Game

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Less Hope Than Neville said:
I do think Gerrez would be a good one to investigate tomorrow. I'm not sure I'm following the line of argument with Valley at the min. However, its not a big enough niggle to think we should kill Gerrez.

We need to focus on the ones who have been named. The problem is we can't trust any of them. I know I'm going around in circles and contradicting myself but my mind is ****ed. I have thought of a plan though.

We put Valley, Tobes, MITO and Tennisball in a 4 way split. Anyone spoiling the split would be exposed (especially if a single townie was killed). If it goes wrong we only lose one more. We can't afford to risk losing both remaining detectives. However, we also can't afford to blindly believe them when there stories (especially MITO's) need further investigation. If we lose one detective on a coin toss it is a setback but not a disaster. If we lose them both it is a disaster. If we lose more townies without taking at least one mafia with them its a disaster with our detectives exposed to recruitment. They only have one kill left so can't take out both detectives.

So I say leave these four to the coin toss and then based on the innocent/guilty result we will have some real hard evidence for the following night, but we will only have lost one max (and maybe none).

The killers should go after the quiet ones. its the safest and most sensible option. For a start they are not helping, even if they are townies. There is a real chance the cartel is a silent player. Silent players can wake up and that would be devastating if we had killed off 2 or 3 of our own and left the cartel.

What do you all think?
Click to expand...

Look at all of Valley's comments since day break. He is saying the same thing over and over and when I ask if he's been compromised if giving the same standard response. To me, all the comments look like something he's been told to say, especially with him repeatedly saying "read the comment". He may not have been compromised and he could prove that by saying something different. Anything at all. However, he's blatantly refused which is why I think he is being forced to say what he is saying.

I am not talking about the Tobes part. If that isn't true then someone else should be claiming to be the psychic
 
MITO'S story seems very desperate, but as he says, nobody else has come forward as the drunk. BUT maybe they shouldn't just yet anyway?

Valley is either:
1. Psychic = town = Tobes non town and MITO killed Biscan, even if forced to by mafia
2. Town but pressured by mafia to frame MITO and Tobes = all 3 could potentially be innocent
3. Mafia, playing with everyone having framed MITO and Tobes (risky as puts Valley in the open as target if MITO/Tobes found innocent
 
Less Hope Than Neville said:
No that's not what I said. That would be crazy. We put all of them - Valley, Mito, Tobes, Tennis in a 25/25/25/25 split. Unless I'm mising something we don't know that we can trust anybody's info at the minute. Our two detectives are contradicting each other to an extent - even if it is through duress. What I am saying is that we can't randomly kill everyone of them without more proof. If we lose one but it proves others guilty then (as MITO has said) it is worth it. However, this way we have a chance of losing none. Randomly telling our killers to aim at them all is madness to me. However, I'll go with the majority. I do think we need to be very careful though.We have a big numerical advantage still, but that could disappear very fast if we start killing active players based on hunches - especially if the cartel is still out there.
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Yes I know, but its 50/50 one guy with a role gets hit if its 4 people (because they would be 2 confirmed on the town side).

We'd be better off putting Tennisball & Tobes up in a 50/50 and if someone saves Tennis last minute it probably means Tobes is cartel.
 
there is a possibility he could be forced somehow.

I would now simply accept a death for me to break that perosnally.

I will say hand on heart i have not een forced to say anything

I have comeout in respone to what was said.

I am interested to know why on earth he said an LFC mod not MITO killed IBWT. perhaps the simplest answer is best here. Id suggest valley give the answer.
 
Obi Wan said:
MITO'S story seems very desperate, but as he says, nobody else has come forward as the drunk. BUT maybe they shouldn't just yet anyway?

Valley is either:
1. Psychic = town = Tobes non town and MITO killed Biscan, even if forced to by mafia
2. Town but pressured by mafia to frame MITO and Tobes = all 3 could potentially be innocent
3. Mafia, playing with everyone having framed MITO and Tobes (risky as puts Valley in the open as target if MITO/Tobes found innocent
Click to expand...

so now you've dropped you total lie of a post about others having roles etc?
 
Obi Wan said:
MITO'S story seems very desperate, but as he says, nobody else has come forward as the drunk. BUT maybe they shouldn't just yet anyway?

Valley is either:
1. Psychic = town = Tobes non town and MITO killed Biscan, even if forced to by mafia
2. Town but pressured by mafia to frame MITO and Tobes = all 3 could potentially be innocent
3. Mafia, playing with everyone having framed MITO and Tobes (risky as puts Valley in the open as target if MITO/Tobes found innocent
Click to expand...

If all three are innocent then the Mafia are going to be pissing themselves watching all this <laugh>
 
Lucaaas said:
Yes I know, but its 50/50 one guy with a role gets hit if its 4 people (because they would be 2 confirmed on the town side).

We'd be better off putting Tennisball & Tobes up in a 50/50 and if someone saves Tennis last minute it probably means Tobes is cartel.
Click to expand...

If the probability is right, why would someone save him? He has no team mates and therefore no one knows he is Pablo

Edit: scrap that, mis-read your comment <doh>

Edit 2: Why would tennis being saved mean Tobes is Cartel?
 
Lucaaas said:
Put our only 2 people with power (who's identities haven't been disputed yet) in a 50/50 coin toss? Sounds like a great idea.
Click to expand...

Good spot.

Why are we not testing Valley's info. If we put MITO up then at best we get a MAFIA who only have one kill left and 2 members.

If we put Tobes up best result is he is Cartel and that stops recruiting (save for one possibly tomorrow?)

I say we lynch Tobes and if right we can then go after MITO or Sir Tennis or Valley (too late at night to take all this in)

I VOTE TOBES
 
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Without doubt, it is more important to catch the Cartel. The Mafia have limited abilities that will be used up within two or three nights. The Cartel will only get stronger until we catch Pablo (unless they continue to not recruit)
 
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moreinjuredthanowen said:
this is the worst possible plan.. osrry. and obi has decided to mess about so i rekcon that proves it.
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Err, where exactly have i decided to mess around?

i said i had decided to share the info I got from AFC as I thought it might help. With the potential contradictions with either your story or Valley's story, I thought it best to share and help cast doubt on some of the comments.

All my other posts have been genuine observations.
you trying to hide domething?
 
Gerrez said:
If the probability is right, why would someone save him? He has no team mates and therefore no one knows he is Pablo
Click to expand...

I was saying if they save Tennis. Because Valley has had a reading of non town on Tobes and why would mafia sacrifice one of their own and reveal themselves by changing the vote in someone's favour? Surely if Tobes & Tennis were mafia they'd just let it go to the coin toss.

Obviously that's ignoring the fact Valley's readings might have been affected somehow by the mafia.

Though I've just thought if they save Tennis we'd know what role Tobes was straight away anyway so its kind of irrelevant.
 
Lucaaas said:
Yes I know, but its 50/50 one guy with a role gets hit if its 4 people (because they would be 2 confirmed on the town side).

We'd be better off putting Tennisball & Tobes up in a 50/50 and if someone saves Tennis last minute it probably means Tobes is cartel.
Click to expand...

Ok fair enough, I get where you are coming from with the 50/50. Maybe I am being too paranoid. I just can't help thinking it smells like a trap. We have a total disaster of a start and then suddenly we find two mafia/cartel on night one? I can't help thinking the bad start has made us desperate to believe the good news. And even then, we're not sure which good news to believe!

I'm not saying Valley or MITO are definitely wrong. I'm worried that MITO has gambled on the drunk being silent as a last gasp way to save himself having been seen. Worried but not convinced. I'm also worried that if the cartel is inactive so far he might still wake up. There's still a big chance he didn't try recruiting last night. Its the usual problem of needing more bullets than we have. We need the silent ones removed as a safety net but also the (probably) two mafia out of the ones named.
 
Lucaaas said:
I was saying if they save Tennis. Because Valley has had a reading of non town on Tobes and why would mafia sacrifice one of their own and reveal themselves by changing the vote in someone's favour? Surely if Tobes & Tennis were mafia they'd just let it go to the coin toss.

Obviously that's ignoring the fact Valley's readings might have been affected somehow by the mafia.

Though I've just thought if they save Tennis we'd know what role Tobes was straight away anyway so its kind of irrelevant.
Click to expand...

I edited <laugh>
 
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Why would Tobes not recruit if he is Cartel? He was actively posting.
UNLESS he tried to recruit Biscan. I don't know Tobes well enough, but some of you do. So is he likely to go forkBiscan as his first teammate?
 
Less Hope Than Neville said:
Ok fair enough, I get where you are coming from with the 50/50. Maybe I am being too paranoid. I just can't help thinking it smells like a trap. We have a total disaster of a start and then suddenly we find two mafia/cartel on night one? I can't help thinking the bad start has made us desperate to believe the good news. And even then, we're not sure which good news to believe!

I'm not saying Valley or MITO are definitely wrong. I'm worried that MITO has gambled on the drunk being silent as a last gasp way to save himself having been seen. Worried but not convinced. I'm also worried that if the cartel is inactive so far he might still wake up. There's still a big chance he didn't try recruiting last night. Its the usual problem of needing more bullets than we have. We need the silent ones removed as a safety net but also the (probably) two mafia out of the ones named.
Click to expand...

Yeah I agree, something about this is odd. It just seems too easy. So on the first night investigators have a 5/18 chance of hitting a guilty person and we are supposed to believe both of them did? What they're both saying seems plausible but they way valley worded his post was really weird (2nd part at least with MITO)
 
In the end all of those are unknowns and you cannot know til it happens.

You know right now that if nobody comes out then you have Tobes in your sights. Then you have valley

Next you know I say tennis is mafia. It is 2/3s chance.

Again if I'm lying you have me.

The simplest way is the best way. If that means the suspicion is high enough you can kill me but I say lynch Tobes no matter what. You have to. It's the only one you can do without hedging

Finally on this one. You can read back and see me calling valley Mafia as I was messing around. It's highly possible the mafia said mito is perfect for this forced kill and valley will believe this


Now we simply don't know what that pm valley got says. How he say me with a knife.
 
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