Off Topic Afcftw Mafia Game

[InBiscanWeTrust]

With this many townies starting against 3 mafia and a cartel fella, not even us can **** this one up?

When you say 'us' are you referring to you and your mafia team?

also don't forget serial killer... He's a team of his own isn't he so that's 3 teams...

plus us the stupid schizophrenic who could be killing the rest of us

 

[Lord Jonjomort]

Morning townsfolk. Two points. First, I'm guilty of nothing. Second, never does the phrase "thou dost protest too much" ever apply better than in a game featuring Italian gangs or Lupus Dei.

Biscan's first comments are particularly divisive. I tend to find quiet folk don't do a lot of killing.

 

[Bodinki]

so odds.

4/19 are our targets as the town.

that is going to be long odds of hitting on right off. There's plenty places to hide in that so I'd like to see some serious probing going on.

Indeed.
In pretty much every game the mafia have had 2 members who are active-ish, and contributing maybe half a dozen posts a day, and a third who has been silent.
We need to look at differences in peoples post volumes as an indicator, though i think with this many townies, some innocent lynching may be inevitable

 

[Sir Tennisball]

Welcome to the game guys! Let's get this party started!

Hoping for a nice long game with so many players, I guess it depends on how long some of the roles last...

First up, my usual disclaimer: I'm from South Africa so not too affected by the 1 hour time difference, but your 9pm is my 10pm so I'll give fair warning if I can if I won't be online for the vote (I get up before 6am). But I should be fine the first few nights...

Not going to direct traffic as that didn't work too well for me last time!

Just to say that for our day one voting strategy, as mito mentioned there are 8 ordinary townies day 1, and overall the situation is 14-3-1-1 (Town-Mafia-Cartel-SK) although the SK doesn't know who he is yet. So a whopping 74% chance of lynching a townie if it was pure random vote.

In a 3 man lynch if it's totally random we have a 38% chance of having 3 innocent townies up for lynching.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

I hope you'll be wearing gloves!!

The cartel should definitely be the most powerful as the game progresses. I'm not so keen to play down the power of the mafia though. The way the game is set up I think it should be quite easy for them to sit back and watch us pick each other off one by one and suddenly things will look a lot healthier for them.

You are right they can.

I am saying though that they are a man light which is good for us at the outset. They have 2 kills so that hidden power will be key to them i think. is it another investigator, a role blocker, a recruiter? they all will impact the game differently. my suicide bomber thing was fun last game but its actually weak.

In the end it always comes down to who runs out of places to hide first.

My view is the cartel will be more powerful as they can hoover up roles as they go and then hide the cartel boss in one of those roles.

both will be out to hide so the town must ferret them out.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

Indeed.
In pretty much every game the mafia have had 2 members who are active-ish, and contributing maybe half a dozen posts a day, and a third who has been silent.
We need to look at differences in peoples post volumes as an indicator, though i think with this many townies, some innocent lynching may be inevitable

yes every tell needs looking at and yes the lynchings are going to happen and thin our ranks. the main question is how they occur and why and what info we get out of them.

 

[Bodinki]

yes every tell needs looking at and yes the lynchings are going to happen and thin our ranks. the main question is how they occur and why and what info we get out of them.

Our detective will be key here, well both of em, though one has a one in three chance of giving us false info! which doesnt help.
I take it when we get detective info, we wont know whether its from the proper detective, or the piss head detective?

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

You are right they can.

I am saying though that they are a man light which is good for us at the outset. They have 2 kills so that hidden power will be key to them i think. is it another investigator, a role blocker, a recruiter? they all will impact the game differently. my suicide bomber thing was fun last game but its actually weak.

In the end it always comes down to who runs out of places to hide first.

My view is the cartel will be more powerful as they can hoover up roles as they go and then hide the cartel boss in one of those roles.

both will be out to hide so the town must ferret them out.

There are a lot more hidden powers and curve balls in this game than the ones I have played on our board. Got a feeling I'm going to be as much use as a chocolate fireguard! I'm going to try and hang back in this one for a bit though with the accusations and use my brain - that tactic will probably last til about 7pm though when I get the scatter gun out though

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

Our detective will be key here, well both of em, though one has a one in three chance of giving us false info! which doesnt help.
I take it when we get detective info, we wont know whether its from the proper detective, or the piss head detective?

no idea at this point. the op is not clear on exactly how info gets out. in prior game there were clear routes so in this one i am assuming for now the worst case which is we won't get told unless someone reveals role.

 

[Joelinton's Right Foot]

Ok, time to get some work done. Why do I have a horrible feeling it will be even more confusing when I come back???

 

[Sir Tennisball]

afcftw, I know there are secrets so you may not want to clarify...

But if a mafia member was recruited by the cartel, I wonder what would happen? They can't 'lose' their previous power as they still have access to the boards etc, so perhaps the extra mafia power is that they can't be recruited? Would make sense as the cartel do seem very powerful, and mafia only have 2 kills...

Otherwise I'm guessing the extra power could be a recruitment, but it's such a common mafia power in these games that I doubt that's the secret. I'm guessing the secret power is something to counteract the Cartel, perhaps they can investigate someone every night and see if they're cartel or not?

 

[InBiscanWeTrust]

@Bodanki can you claim that you've never been lynched again so I have a valid reason to vote for you

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

Welcome to the game guys! Let's get this party started!

Hoping for a nice long game with so many players, I guess it depends on how long some of the roles last...

First up, my usual disclaimer: I'm from South Africa so not too affected by the 1 hour time difference, but your 9pm is my 10pm so I'll give fair warning if I can if I won't be online for the vote (I get up before 6am). But I should be fine the first few nights...

Not going to direct traffic as that didn't work too well for me last time!

Just to say that for our day one voting strategy, as mito mentioned there are 8 ordinary townies day 1, and overall the situation is 14-3-1-1 (Town-Mafia-Cartel-SK) although the SK doesn't know who he is yet. So a whopping 74% chance of lynching a townie if it was pure random vote.

In a 3 man lynch if it's totally random we have a 38% chance of having 3 innocent townies up for lynching.

Yes. well it would be 14/19 x 13/18 x 12/17 kind of odds for all being innocent as in 14 have to be innocent so that is indeed 38% chance.

the odds of one in a tie being guilty can similarly be calculated and its pretty low no?

Really the info has to come from talking.

 

[Sir Tennisball]

Yes. well it would be 14/19 x 13/18 x 12/17 kind of odds for all being innocent as in 14 have to be innocent so that is indeed 38% chance.

the odds of one in a tie being guilty can similarly be calculated and its pretty low no?

Really the info has to come from talking.

Yeah it's just 14/19 x 13/18 so 53% chance of both being innocent. But in reality it's even less than these quoted figures as mafia teammates will propose innocents for the lynch, but that's where we look for hints as to who is protecting who. But mafia will only propose people if their teammates are in contention, hence the need to get people to actively participate and not hide.

 

[InBiscanWeTrust]

Yeah it's just 14/19 x 13/18 so 53% chance of both being innocent. But in reality it's even less than these quoted figures as mafia teammates will propose innocents for the lynch, but that's where we look for hints as to who is protecting who. But mafia will only propose people if their teammates are in contention, hence the need to get people to actively participate and not hide.

From past experience, mafia won't be suggesting anyone early on, instead hiding back in the shadows and jumping on the votes.

Mikey es was good at that last game, and I only realised at the very end. He'd contribute well thought out posts but never actually vote until a few people were already up and he'd jump on those being 2nd or 3rd person to vote then

 

[InBiscanWeTrust]

Sebbs campaign manager

random vote for someone yet to say anything...

 

[Bodinki]

@Bodanki can you claim that you've never been lynched again so I have a valid reason to vote for you

I aint never been lynched!

 

[Swarbs]

so odds.

4/19 are our targets as the town.

that is going to be long odds of hitting on right off. There's plenty places to hide in that so I'd like to see some serious probing going on.

5/19 surely?

We need to kill the three Mafia, the cartel and the serial killer to win.

Also: "When someone is recruited they become a standard Cartel member and lose any previous role."

Does that mean if the cartel recruit the Mafia or serial killer then they lose their role too? If so, we need to look for the Mafia and serial killer first, as the cartel leader may end up recruiting on of the bad guys and removing their powers!

 

[Swarbs]

Sebbs campaign manager

random vote for someone yet to say anything...

That sounds like a plan to me!

I vote Nobbertos salsa inferno

[HASHTAG]#throwenoughmuduntilsomesticks[/HASHTAG]

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

5/19 surely?

We need to kill the three Mafia, the cartel and the serial killer to win.

Also: "When someone is recruited they become a standard Cartel member and lose any previous role."

Does that mean if the cartel recruit the Mafia or serial killer then they lose their role too? If so, we need to look for the Mafia and serial killer first, as the cartel leader may end up recruiting on of the bad guys and removing their powers!

yes to win. the serial killer isn't activated yet though.

I think its highly dangerous to ignore the cartel as they too only have the 3/19 mafia to hit. they won't remove many powers and are far more likely to remove town than mafia for us.

we need to find all the bad guys. All i'm saying is in a dream game w'ed be told tomorrow morning there was x player = mafia and y player = cartel boss. i can tell you i'd lynch the cartel boss asap.

if they last till day 4/5 the cartell will be quite large and we will be losing roles.