The 2015 Epsom Derby

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Who is going to win?

  • Total voters
    25
  • Poll closed .
If Golden Horn wins the Derby I will ride Squire naked!!
He simply wont stay (Stick has shared what we were told) but aside from that its obvious to me. No idea what will win but GH wont be and Oppenheimer knows it. Hes working out how much to lay it for to cover the supplement then have a free run. Watch him drift on Betfair from now..... guarantee it.
 
Gleneagles has attracted support on the Betfair exchange and now trades at 8.4. Will he be supplemented in a late gamble by the O'Briens?
 
Aidan O'Brien, speaking from Chantilly on Sunday, said it was likely the dual Guineas winner would be left in the premier Classic at Monday's confirmation stage.

"I think there is another stage tomorrow and I didn't hear that he was going to be taken out, so I presume he is going to be left in tomorrow - I presume," said the Ballydoyle handler.

Owners Coolmore also have the option of adding the filly Found into the field on Monday.

O'Brien said: "I didn't hear anything about the filly being supplemented in it yet, anyway.

"All the colts that are in it, are in it.

"There is a supplementary stage tomorrow and I didn't hear that the filly would be supplemented."

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/2/9871107/derby-momentum-grows-for-gleneagles
 
Work rider, trainer and owner all doubted he stays before the Dante.... at least one of those remains firmly in that camp still!!
The Derby isn't for horses with any stamina doubts, the uphill section takes so much out of them.
 
So other people doubting he will stay before the Dante is why you know he wont stay?

I have not seen anything obvious visually to say he wont stay, stayed a mile well as a 2yo, looked strongest at the end of the Dante and took a bit of pulling up after the line.

I can see the the reason to have doubts on the dam side of the pedigree, although his grand dam is a half sister to a 1m4 winner who stayed 2 miles and his sire has produced multiple Group 1 1m4 horses, but I dont see how its possible to be convinced he wont stay. Someone elses opinion is rarely enough to convince me though.

Based on what I have seen id say hes a shade odds on to stay and I expect that slight doubt to be factored into his price come the day. There has been stamina doubts about plenty of Derby winners id imagine, Nashwan, Benny The Dip and Sea The Stars off the top of my head, they are only thoughts in the minds of people. To me he is the best horse in the race and the one to beat, even if the trip stretches him.
 
Yeah but MOG, you thought 69 was Squires limit!!!!! I have to agree in part with you because visually I have not seen anything to suggest he will not get the trip. It may turn out to be a good race because of its mediocrity. The fact that Gleneagles is still in is surely down to the fact that they have very little to go to war with. One of the favourites, two in fact, were considered handicappers at the start of the season! Its pretty average and that can only help Golden Horn.
 
I thought 67 would have been a fair opening mark based on what he had done on the track, never said it was his limit.
 
Had a look at that thread there just to make sure I didnt say that!

Der Kaiser said:
I wouldnt say 70 is beyond him but as an initial mark it was harsh enough on the evidence and possibly influenced by soft ride at lingfield

As I said, Im not saying 70 is beyond him, looking at that first run he is certainly going to be competitive off that mark, just think it was a bit harsh for an opening mark all form considered.
Click to expand...

:D
 
There is plenty of alternatives if you want to take on the fav, Zawraq surely looks more of a stamina doubt than Golden Horn but he has been impressive, Jack Hobbs and Elm Park cant be far away if the fav doesnt do it and I still think Giovanni Canaletto could surprise some.

Im firmly with the fav and im not planning on doing a forecast!
 
Yeah, but the one everyone wants to say wont stay looks the best chance of staying of the 3!

Obrien has said Gleneagles is an "out and out miler" and he has never looked a Derby horse to me, I really hope he runs though price wise.
 
I am having an each way on STORM THE STARS. He will make it a true test and has a very good attitude. Not the classiest individual but its a year when I don't think you need to be.
 
stick said:
I am having an each way on STORM THE STARS. He will make it a true test and has a very good attitude. Not the classiest individual but its a year when I don't think you need to be.
Click to expand...
If it runs I will be backing this e/w as well but last I heard the trainer said it is unlikely it will run.
 
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