Is there a chance that today's Irish 1000G will have as much effect on the Derby as the Oaks? If Found flies through and wins like an Oaks winner is there a possibility that the Wachman's 1000G winner will be rerouted to the Saturday race?
I don't rate the form of turf races out there Oddy, as most of them are mediocre at best. The classic is not a turf race
I believe that the talk had actually been the other way around. If Found wins the Irish 1000 Guineas easily, there was talk about supplementing her for the Derby and leaving the Oaks to Legatissimo. Two things to factor in there: (1) Found has to win quite well as her current top rating was what she earned in the Prix Marcel Boussac, not this season; and (2) Giovanni Canaletto does not hose up in the Gallinule and become Coolmore/Ballydoyle number one for the Derby.
I'd be amazed if that was to happen. Better to have 2 strong chances in the oaks. Imagine if she was to win and beat Hans Holbein for example, it would cost them a fortune in stallion fees for Hans Holbein. She probably wouldnt have a chance in the Derby anyways, but even If she did it would make no sense
I'd say ROG was O'Briens best miler myself. No better man in the saddle than Mick Kinane but how he managed to get him beaten in the Breeders Cup I don't know. Even the best get it wrong from time to time. Giovanni won't be winning a Derby based on today anyway.
Right, let's see if we can sift through the array of trial disappointment and get to the bottom of this Derby. The one with the form and the most impressive visual performance is probably Golden Horn. For reasons that make absolutely no sense, I simply don't think he will win because he just doesn't look like a Derby horse and isn't bred like one. To be fair, he looked like he was running on well after the line after the Dante but I think Elm Park was there to be shot at and Jack Hobbs ran a funny sort of race after being deceptively keen early on and running a wide passage. He can't do any more than he has done though so if you think he's a certainty, then you are welcome to some 7/4. But you know, sometimes you just can't have a horse stepping up to a mile and a half. Elm Park might come on for the run, they reckon, but he will end up a Leger horse IMO. A bit one-paced but will try all day. If Hans Holbein is AOB's best 3 year old then he is in some trouble. He isn't, and it's more that the ones with the most potential are needing more time (Gio Cannaletto and Sir Isaac Newton, who was scrateched this week). Kilimanjaro another who has a mountain to climb. Ahem. Moheet has potential to improve up in trip but is miles short of the standard at this stage. Jack Hobbs to me physically looks ready for Epsom. He looked like he had been mugged a little at York, which is a big compliment to Golden Horn in the sense that the winner whizzed by him just as Jack Hobbs looked like he was about to destroy Elm Park. He was a little outpaced turning in but then he got into a stride, picked up Elm Park only to be swamped by Golden Horn. He was not given a hard time by Dettori and he shaped beautifully. He needs the trip to be the factor in reversing form with the winner but now Dettori knows he has the gears, he can switch off much earlier and be held a bit further back at Epsom. I can see him doing a Workforce and improving massively at Epsom. York plays to speed horses. Zawraq is the most unexposed of all. Whilst his beating of Sir Isaac Newton doesn't look as strong as it might right now, his demolition of Endless Drama reads very well after Saturdays Irish 2000 Guineas and his trainer has always mooted him as a Derby horse. Dermot Weld to speak of him as he does says an awful lot- calling him a middleweight boxer when he has a horse like Free Eagle in the yard. He obviously has plenty of speed, but unlike Golden Horn, the dam side is packed with more stamina, and as long as he relaxes he goes there with a great chance. For me therefore, I'll play two: ZAWRAQ 5/1 JACK HOBBS 8/1
Andrew Oppenheimer confirmed Frankie is riding Golden Horn in the Derby in an interview on ATR during the week TC!
Sorry mate but I just can't agree with that! In fact reading that sentence made me rewatch the Dante on YouTube to see if my memory was playing tricks on me and it wasn't! The only time Jack Hobbs asserted was just as they approached the last 1/2f where Elm Park is very much looked after. To me the horse simply blew up and he was saved for another day. Out of the Dante, looking to the Derby, I'm most taken by Elm Park, I couldn't have Golden Horn on my mind at all for Epsom! Any rain would certainly help, whose to say we won't get a bit either.
I initially wrote Giovanni Canaletto off after today's race but having re watched it a few times I think I may have done so hastily. He was something similar on his debut run and took a while to get going, today was similar in that he looked a bit green and took a while to realise what was being asked of him. Once he got going he was closing down, I think he will come on for that and a step up in trip will allow him to unwind more and I can see him seeing out the Derby trip as strong as anything. I've taken a little 28/1 on the exchanges not long ago and hopefully I'm proved right and O'Brien let's him take his chance and with Moore up top with a little luck once Gleneagles get's pulled. I'm also a fan of Zawraq in the race as well. I could be totally wrong but these are the 2 I'm leaning on for now.
Completely understand the Elm Park point, but equally did Jack Hobbs get much of a tough ride? To my eye he looked like he was still being educated a little? Not sure- what do you think?
Jack Hobbs travelled 3 wide yet still beat Elm Park comfortably despite running green all up the home straight. Jack Hobbs is a class above Elm Park and I'm certain future races will prove this
I think Zawraq will win this and may start a lot shorter than the 5-1 currently available. I think the Dante form is good but at the same time nothing looked a superstar and I agre that Golden Hawn may not enjoy Epsom as much.
I have to admit the Zawraq form is starting to look pretty good, with the 2nd and 3rd horse from Zawraqs last race getting closer to Gleneagles in yesterday's 2000 Guineas than they did him. A couple of things would concern me with him though, why haven't we seen him since very early in the season, has he had injuries? Also his form was on heavy ground which usually exaggerates winning margins, not to mention it's hard to know wether the beaten horses ran to form on the bad ground
Negatives: Little setbacks prevented him from running in the Derby trials in Ireland, according to his trainer. Positives: Endless Drama prefers a bit of cut underfoot according to Ger Lyons, so his comfortable win over that one stands up fairly well. Endless Drama was expected to come on a lot for his run there though, although given Zawraq started odds against that day suggests he was also expected to come on a little bit.
Two months ago, Anthony Oppenheimer and I both thought that Golden Horn was a ten furlong horse. That was why I did not have a penny on it at 20/1 after it won the Feilden Stakes at the Craven meeting. I still think it is a ten furlong horse but he is going to shell out £75k to find out the hard way. The Derby betting is such a mess right now with nobody actually sure what Ballydoyle intends to run and who will ride what that I think I will leave it until we know the runners, riders and the going. It is certainly more open than the betting suggests.
