The 2015 Epsom Derby

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Who is going to win?

  • Total voters
    25
  • Poll closed .
Ballydoyle seem to have four out of the first 5 in the betting. Only Andrew Balding's Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park flying the flag for the home team. If I was having an e/w punt from this far out, he'd be the one for me at 14/1.
 
In recent history, the winter Epsom Derby betting has something of a familiar look it, dominated by inmates of Ballydoyle.

By 5th June, the race for the Blue Riband will contain either half a dozen Coolmore-owned possibles because they have no stand-out candidate or it will have been reduced to just a couple by virtue of one having put up a performance that suggests it is a cut above the average.

In that respect, the punter convinced that Aidan O’Brien has the winner in his yard and that it has already won something more than a nondescript Dundalk maiden race could try to form a book centred around the likes of 8/1 John F Kennedy (Gp3 winner), 10/1 Ol’ Man River (Gp2 winner), 12/1 Highland Reel (Gp2 winner), 20/1 Sir Isaac Newton (once-raced maiden), Gleneagles (Gp1 winner) and Giovanni Canaletto (maiden winner). As I do not punt each-way ante post and the combined win odds of those six equate to 11/8 they make no appeal at all.

The nonsensical state of the betting currently appears to suggest that the only chance of the prize staying on this island is 16/1 Elm Park. Given the chronic record of Racing Post Trophy winners it might be better to look for something in the 25/1 and 33/1 shots that has won one of the back-end maidens at the likes of Leicester or Nottingham for somebody like Sir Michael Stoute. Usually by March something is “catching pigeons” on the Newmarket gallops and has collapsed to 12/1 on the strength of holding Guineas and Derby entries. I cannot recall the last time one of these morning glories went on to win at Epsom but it would be fair to say that most ante post punters will be happy just to see their horse line up on the day at half the odds.

The last couple of years my ante post nag has been beaten in one of the Derby trials by the middle of May and not seen again all season. I think Godolphin’s Be Ready has probably been served up in a Paris restaurant or is sticking together somebody’s flat-pack furniture.
 
The trials for the Epsom showpiece are coming at us thick and fast - amongst them the Classic Trial at Sandown (won by Master Apprentice who is not entered in the Derby), the Epsom Derby Trial (won by Christophermarlowe) and yesterday's 2000 Guineas which, for once, did not throw up an obvious Derby candidate. This week, Chester's 3-day meeting takes centre stage, the week after it's the Dante meeting at York and sandwiched in between those 2 we have the Derrinstown next Sunday at Leopardstown.

Impressive Sandown handicap winner Jack Hobbs heads the market along with 2000 Guineas absentee (ground related) Elm Park and Dermot Weld's Zawraq - all are available at somewhere between the 6/1 to 8/1 mark.

At this stage the 20/1 on offer from Hills and Paddy Power for Christophermarlowe looks fairly appealing. He won the Epsom Derby Trial in taking fashion, travelling nicely down the hill and around Tattenham Corner before producing a nice turn of foot off the bend and maintaining a good gallop all the way to the line. If he goes to Chester, I think he could well land the race (despite a host of Ballydoyle maiden winners still being entered - the 2 named after Italian artists Canaletto and Botticelli particularly catching the eye) and shorten considerably. As a fan of the Epsom Derby trial (purely from a logical standpoint) it would be nice to see a real contender emerge from the race.
 
I'm waiting for some of these nicely bred unraced colts to show their hand
 
beeforsalmon said:
A Sandown handicap winner is favourite for the premier Flat Classic
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I don't really see why being a Sandown handicap winner is such a negative. Sure it's not the normal route, but the horse doesn't know that.

It's the way John Gosden likes to train his horses, throwing horses in at the deep end has never been his way of training.

Either way Jack Hobbs destroyed them at Sandown and will do the same to whatever turns up in the Dante against him.

Then you will be forced to take him seriously for Epsom:biggrin:
 
What do people reckon the chances are of Gleneagles running in the Derby?

It may look unlikely looking at his price, but connections don't look to have much else to target the race with. With Ol Man River and JFK being very disappointing this season, you have to wonder wether they'll be tempted to see if Gleneagles will get the trip.

His pedigree isn't a complete lost cause, he's from a mare who was best over a mile, but Galileo his sire was obviously a Derby winner, so I think it's possible he will stay, without being certain:biggrin:
 
King Shergar said:
What do people reckon the chances are of Gleneagles running in the Derby?

It may look unlikely looking at his price, but connections don't look to have much else to target the race with. With Ol Man River and JFK being very disappointing this season, you have to wonder wether they'll be tempted to see if Gleneagles will get the trip.

His pedigree isn't a complete lost cause, he's from a mare who was best over a mile, but Galileo his sire was obviously a Derby winner, so I think it's possible he will stay, without being certain:biggrin:
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Shergs, I don't like his chances at all- he has always looked like a top class miler- quickens well and puts races to bed, saving enough for himself.

The Ballydoyle Derby picture will begin to be paint itself this week at Chester. Giovanni Cannaletto will run the Chester Derby trial, whilst Sir Isaac Newton is declared in a maiden on Wednesday. Whether the latter would take just a maiden on the way to Epsom I don't know- could he feasibly run in the Dante 9 days later?
 
TopClass said:
Shergs, I don't like his chances at all- he has always looked like a top class miler when we look at his performances- quickens well and puts races to bed, saving enough for himself.

The Ballydoyle Derby picture will begin to be paint itself this week at Chester. Giovanni Cannaletto will run the Chester Derby trial, whilst Sir Isaac Newton is declared in a maiden on Wednesday. Whether the latter would take just a maiden on the way to Epsom I don't know- could he feasibly run in the Dante 9 days later?
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I think they would run him in the Derby after just a maiden win. He does atleast have a run under his belt from last season.

It is the Derringstown Derby trial on Sunday aswell, so it'll be interesting to see what they run in that. Maybe it'll be JFK, and well see if he can redeem himself after LTO :biggrin:
 
King Shergar said:
I don't really see why being a Sandown handicap winner is such a negative. Sure it's not the normal route, but the horse doesn't know that.

It's the way John Gosden likes to train his horses, throwing horses in at the deep end has never been his way of training.

Either way Jack Hobbs destroyed them at Sandown and will do the same to whatever turns up in the Dante against him.

Then you will be forced to take him seriously for Epsom:biggrin:
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Shergy if Jack Hobbs does the same to a Group Two field in the Dante then we could be looking at a reincarnation of your namesake! Until that happens he has it all to prove. Put simply when I'm looking a top class race, I'll concentrate on class horses, by definition those that have won or shown up well in the Group races. Handicap form is handicap form. Group form is Group form. Many have promised to to deliver on their visual impression based on their races in lower grades but when stepped up to the top table they fall short. We seen it on Saturday. This time last year, the Godolphin horse Lucky Story, was the great white hope for many. Until it was stepped up in Grade in the Dante, and subsequently found out.

Until Jack Hobbs proves himself in something higher than a handicap I'm very happy to put a very big question mark beside him. And his price for the Epsom Derby is ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous.
 
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beeforsalmon said:
Shergy if Jack Hobbs does the same to a Grade Two field in the Dante then we could be looking at a reincarnation of your namesake! Until that happens he has it all to prove. Put simply when I'm looking a top lass
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RE: Jack Hobbs:


Without looking at the video- I saw that the facts were that he beat a Starspangledbanner frontrunner (and hence a non-stayer) and his main rival (Stravagante) met with interference on the bend before running on to almost snatch 2nd.

However when I watched the video Jack Hobbs did actually impress me in the way he cleared away in a few strides. He's a big horse who will stay so I'm not quite so quick to write him off after seeing it visually.

I don't think the form is upto much in behind but he barely broke a sweat and therefore should be respected, albeit not overhyped either. He gives us a very interesting angle for Epsom and a very different route to what we normally see!
 
Sir Isaac Newton goes to a Chester maiden as AOB thinks it teaches them quite a bit. Says the horse has a lot of speed and that an Irish 2000 Guineas bid could even be on the cards as they did with Magician taking the Chester-Irish 2000 route a couple of years ago. That does create some doubt around whether he will go to the Derby as they are very close together, but Gleneagles is on course for that assuming that the ground is good, so whether he would run alongside him I'm not so sure.

AOB says Sir Isaac Newton has "a lot to learn in a short enough space of time if he is to become a classic horse." so Chester will be step one in that, and they will then assess from there.
 
OddDog said:
At this stage the 20/1 on offer from Hills and Paddy Power for Christophermarlowe looks fairly appealing. He won the Epsom Derby Trial in taking fashion, travelling nicely down the hill and around Tattenham Corner before producing a nice turn of foot off the bend and maintaining a good gallop all the way to the line. If he goes to Chester, I think he could well land the race (despite a host of Ballydoyle maiden winners still being entered - the 2 named after Italian artists Canaletto and Botticelli particularly catching the eye) and shorten considerably. As a fan of the Epsom Derby trial (purely from a logical standpoint) it would be nice to see a real contender emerge from the race.
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Christ, 36 hours after posting this, the 20s are long gone and Paddy Power now goes 14 and Hills only 12s. I won't pretend this has anything to do with my post (not about to invent some sort of "Oddywise" character) but it just shows you how quickly the bookies remove any perceived value from the market. Jeez.
 
Also Oddy you are looking a dual course winner in an antepost market surrounded by doubts for the Ballydoyle juggernaut. He doesn't look a bad bet by any means.

Future Empires performance in the Chester trial this week might add some more ideas on the strength of the form <ok>
 
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