Surely Gleneagles must be top of the AOB pile for the Derby at the moment. The classic Derby pedigree is by a 10f horse out of a 10f horse as you don't need shed loads of stamina to win the Derby because you are then too slow. so there's no problem on the sire's side and your only doubt is on the dam's side. She is full-sister to as brave and as tough Eclipse winner as I've seen so the ingredients are there. AOB is going to have to have someone special to replace him.
AOB thinks it is very likely that they will go the Irish 2000 route with him so long as the ground is nice. The dam side has to create doubt, being a Cherry Hinton winner, and he smacks me as a miler. He doesn't look like he is running on as if a mile and a half is what he needs, but the Guineas is as good a Derby trial there is so you can't write it off.
Oddy, Pricewise put old boy Christopher up as his pick for The Derby yesterday evening / this morning – 1 pt at 16/1. That might explain some of the movement this past 20 hours or so. Looks like Christopher’s heading to Lingfield Park at the weekend for their Derby Trial. Which is very imaginatively called the ‘Lingfield Park Derby Trial’.
Hopefully for Christophermarlowe fans, Pricewise does not have the same misfortune that he had with the 1000 Guineas when Together Forever was withdrawn at final declarations losing the punters their money. I would not be in any hurry to back Gleneagles for the Derby as I note that on Oddschecker only three or four bookies are actually offering a price. I can only see him running if none of the trials throw up an alternative for the trainer/owners. John F Kennedy and Highland Reel are still in there as is Guineas flop Ol’ Man River, who should not be discounted yet. In fact seven of the first ten in the Derby ante post market reside at Ballydoyle. After the Irish 2000 Guineas, there has to be a good chance that Gleneagles will go for the St James’s Palace Stakes and then either step up to ten furlongs for the Eclipse Stakes or have a break and go for the Sussex Stakes.
Jack Hobbs 6/1 fav! wtf did I miss? was only recently Shergar and myself suggested the 16s might be worth taking but didnt expect to see him 6/1 fav there
I don't expect him to win by 12 lengths in the Dante, but il be expecting him to win with plenty in hand. If anything is able to give him a race, then they'll have to be pretty exceptional themselves. Saying that you ignore all horses for group races that don't have group form is a very narrow minded way of looking at the form book. You have to look at the manor of each victory. So if he'd scraped home by a short head in a G3 you'd be more impressed? It wasn't a low grade handicap Jack Hobbs won either, it was a class 2 race, full of progressive 3yos. You would fancy a few of the beaten horses will eventually be running in group races themselves. So to hammer them all 12 lengths eased up, is evidence that Jack Hobbs is a high class horse
It must be my money sending shock waves through the Derby market Got a bet at 16s and a couple more at 12s. I'd of had the lot at 16s if they didn't restrict me
Thought the Jack Hobbs race was a bit strange. The going was poor and some horses weren't striding out. The 12 lengths may have been an exaggeration of his ability. Having said that Conduit came 3rd in that same race and went on to be a top 3yo and I believe an Irish Derby winner was 2nd in that same handicap. I'd say Elm Park will be a big obstacle in the Dante.
It looks like the Dante is going to be the key trial for the Derby once again, with very little coming from Chester, Lingfield or over in Ireland so far. Looking at the field you would have to imagine the Dante winner will go off favourite at Epsom. Jack Hobbs and Elm Park look set to line up, whilst AOB has 7 of them entered including JFK, Ol Man River and Giovanni Canoletto. Doubt he'll run all 7 but I'd imagine he'll run atleast 3 of them. Jack Hobbs is the 9/4 favourite, and I'd be very happy to bet on him. I'm expecting he will win in some style. The fact AOB has half his fleet entered is enough to tell me they have no idea what there main Derby horse is this year
Surprised Golden Horn is not mentioned for the Dante by you. I stick to my opinion that Gleneagles is still top of AOB's Derby pile, and so far has the best form.
Golden Horn has useful form from his listed win that's for sure, but I wouldn't fancy him to trouble Jack Hobbs. Golden Horn doesn't even have a Derby entry, so I think his target will be the King Edward VII stakes at Royal Ascot. I agree with your opinion that Gleneagles should run in the Derby, though I disagree with you that he will be their Derby horse, as the betting suggests to me they have no intention of running him. They are a gambling stable afterall, so he wouldn't be trading at 20/1 if they where going to Epsom. Gleneagles will stay at a mile for the time being id imagine, and may run over 10 furlongs later in the year
If they are a gambling stable Shergs maybe they could be dabbling away at 20s before they announce him as a definite?
Not much being said on the forum about Success Days. He probably didn't beat much in the Derrinstown, but he sure looked impressive in the run to the post. He was sent away on the corner and quickened really well. His mind wandered a little down the running, but went to the line with gusto.
I think that you will find that Success Days has won both his races on soft or heavy ground. John F Kennedy hardly advertised the Ballysax form with his abject performance in the Dante. If the weather forecast were dreadful for Derby week, they might be persuaded to shell out the money to add him to the race; but on Oddschecker he is not even quoted as I think the owners said that the Irish Derby was the plan.
Cyc, if you want one at a big price in the Derby, look at Peterhof at 50/1. He is trained by Sir Michael Stoute and owned by Lady Rothschild; and puts his unbeaten record on the line in the Newbury 4:30 handicap this afternoon. If he wins by ten or twelve lengths, he could be the next Jack Hobbs...
