Daily Racing Thread Thursday 9th. April 2015

[attivo]

Thursday's Meetings

Aintree
N/H 7 Races 1:40-5:15p.m.
Southwell
A/W 7 Races 2:05-5:35p.m.
Taunton
N/H 7 Races 2:30-5:55p.m.
Tipperary
Flat 7 Races 4:35-7:50p.m.
Chelmsford
A/W 7 Races 6:10-9:10p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

[Exotic Dancer]

Going to go for Menorah at 12/1 with ladbrokes in 3m chase. I just think he's a bit of value.

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

I doubt if there will be a dry eye on the forum if its favourite Corinthian, Sam Waley-Cohen, obliges in the Foxhunters tomorrow at Aintree (4.05). My regular readers were Ebullient with a capital ‘E’ when he and WARNE dotted up in the same contest last term and I’m expecting similar feelings for them of the morrow.

The younger Mr Waley-Cohen, who has an amazing record over the big ‘uns at Aintree, was incredible that day as he positioned the horse beautifully and stole several lengths on his rivals at almost every obstacle. It really was one of those very rare instances of man and beast being as one and I would recommend that every fledgling saddle monkey and Corinthian jockey be made to watch the ride as immediately they will learn so much about the art of riding, what they should aspire to and how to style themselves. In fact I’d even go so far as to make many experienced saddle monkeys also watch and learn from that performance. Most deffo if I owned the current favourite for Saturday’s ‘Grand National’ I’d sit my saddle monkey down and state, ‘This is what you need to do. You follow???’.

Warne has been trained, ever since that breathtaking success 12 months ago, with the 2015 Aintree Foxhunters in mind and expect a similar outcome tomorrow over a course that both horse and his Corinthian pilot excel.

Good luck all.

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

One other thing, well I’m about, am somewhat surprised that Mr Henderson is running Call The Cops in the concluding handicap tomorrow (5.15) rather than going for the Grade 1 with him on Saturday which has well over double the dough available (£120k as opposed to £50,000). 2 ways of looking at this decision (i) the forum’s favourite trainer still thinks he’s very, very well in off 145 and views this race as no more than a penalty kick, or (ii) this is as good as Call The Cops is and Grade 1 level over hurdles is beyond him.

Personally, I’d have gone for the Grade 1 as it would have showed them exactly where Call The Cops stood in the hurdling sphere in advance of the summer decision as to whether he goes chasing or hurdling in 2015/16. But who am I am simple country boy to tell the great man what to do. As they say round my way, ‘In Mr Henderson we trust’.

 

[OddDog]

Not quite the juicy card one might expect for day 1 of Aintree.

The Manifesto Novices Chase features 4 also-rans from the Arkle plus 2 horses who don't look good enough. Vibrato Valtat probably just about the pick, swayed away from Josses Hill by the fact that Henderson's horses will miss the services of Barry Geraghty.

The Juvenile Hurdle looks Hargam's to lose. The beaten horses from the Fred Winter and Triumph Hurdles don't look up to Hargam's standard and the others look exposed.

The Bowl is as much of a conundrum this year as every year, probably a bit of value in Menorah's price but none whatsoever in Holywell's . Ma Filleule not without a chance now she has some decent spring ground. Not decided between these 2 yet.

The Aintree Hurdle is poorer for the absence of Hurricane Fly but I think Rock On Ruby, who comes here fresher than most, can run a big race.

Other race picks, small stakes only:

4.05 Pacha Du Polder, On The Fringe
4.40 Karinga Dancer, Pearls Legend
5.15 Clondaw Kaempfer, Ulzana’s Raid

 

[woolcombe-folly007]

My picks for and going 4/4 on my NAP (sorry for sounding like I think I'm pro)

1.40 - JOSSES HILL- 6/4 Absoutely bolted up here last term so obviously likes the track, everything seems be to putting in thier place (some may argue too late in the season) but looks a fairly weak field and altho he didn't have a great festival at all Mr Henderson will have a stormer one at Aintree

2.15 HARGAM - EVS - Should have too much for this field (NO BET) 2/2 for Mr Henderson

2.50 SILVINIACO CONTI- 11/4 (NAP) How this horse is not favourite is beyond me! Won this last year and every year he has the same questions about him and once again he will answer his critics and this year fully expect him to have to much for the field! Can't have him at Cheltenham at all but gets then 3m at aintree an with the ground as it is he will have no problem in staying

3.25 JEZKI - 11/4 (NB) Not the greatest fan of this horse and has abit to find with the fav on this seasons form but didn't have a hard race at cheltehnam and comes to his own at this time on a flat good ground track he will be hard to beat and once again is being underestimated

4.25 - QUINZ - 25/1 - very useful horse on his day, has put in two decent performances this seasons aswell as winning 2 p2ps aswell

4.40 TED VEALE- 14/1 could be a crafty Tony Martin gamble this! This was a horse who ran in several G1s last yr and altho was poor in the grand annual the ground wa againat him and altho more is needed wouldn't suprise me if he were to pull out the bag (would love BABY MIX run a big race but with his lengthy lay off may need a race!)

5.15 LAC FONTANA - 16/1 - first of all I'm leaving REGAL ENCORE well alone so wtach him bolt up but the favourite will be hard to beat but this is a previous G1 winner and with the on form jockey taking off 5lb which at the moment is well worth his claim which means he is running off a very decent Mark and if has any of last seasons form a place should be the minimum!

There day 1 selections watch all of them loose good luck to all

 

[tward07]

Will try go through the card, cant be any worse than my Cheltenham attempts so fingers crossed!

1.40 - Vibrato Valtat - I was disappointed with his Cheltenham run, in hindsight he was 0/3 at the track before the race so i should have took that into account, nevertheless he faded 2 out and didnt seem to appreciate the hill. Back to a flat track i think will show his true colours - the defeat of Gods Own and Three Kingdoms looked impressive at Kempton. He travels and jumps well and that should be put to good use now upped in trip, his sire has produced a good few horses that run their best at 20 - 21f so not worried about that.

2.15 - Hargam & All Yours EW - Penalty kick for Hargam surely, gets his ground and the top 3 from the Triumph were a mile clear and different class from the others. Price is declining rapidly and will likely go off 1/2 or less. All Yours was badly checked 3 out in the Fred Winter and lost a lot of momentum, he then got up to finish 5 lengths behind in 5th. He meets Bouvreuil and Starchitect on 4lbs better terms today and can easily see him being best of the rest.

2.50 - Silviniaco Conti - Its pretty clear now that he doesnt see out the extended trip well enough at Cheltenham and should be kept to the KG and Betfred Bowl each year. He won this last year in similar ground conditions and im amazed he isnt favourite given he also had a poor race in the gold cup that year also. It was only 2 runs ago he produced his best ever run when he pinged every fence and won the King George comfortably. He has a liken for flat tracks and if they want to hold him up, Vuvokar will set a nice gallop up front but i would guess they will try make all like the King George.

3.25 - Jezki - Has had the beating of Arctic Fire most of the season and given he is certainly going to stay the trip looks a much safer bet. Champ Hurdle was probably run in the worst circumstances for him with a moderate at best pace and unable to quicken up as easily as the front 3 did. Is likely to have a strong pace to aim at and can see him cruising alongside RoR at the last.

4.05 - Warne - Was fantastic in winning this race last year, thriving of the national course. This looks a lot more competitive but another round of jumping like he did and he should be thereabout. Has Sam in the saddle who has a great record over these fences.

4.40 - Ned Buntline - Looked to be getting to Next Sensation at Cheltenham to give McCoy a dream win but faded on the final run in to finish 4th. Runs off same mark today and given that the soft ground probably went against him on the final day(heavy rain) back on a good surface should bring out his best.

5.15 - The Tourad Man & Lac Fontana - The front 3 in the Pertemos meet again but The Tourad Man comes out best at the weights, 2 lbs better than UDC and 3 from CTC. King has managed to get Richard Johnson in the saddle and he has won on him before. Lac Fontana has a stamina question but is no doubt a different class to these being a grade 1 winner at this festival last year. He looked to be staying on in the Coral Cup and can see why Nicholls has upped him in trip with the very handy Sean Bowen taking 5lbs off.

 

[woolcombe-folly007]

Will try go through the card, cant be any worse than my Cheltenham attempts so fingers crossed!

1.40 - Vibrato Valtat - I was disappointed with his Cheltenham run, in hindsight he was 0/3 at the track before the race so i should have took that into account, nevertheless he faded 2 out and didnt seem to appreciate the hill. Back to a flat track i think will show his true colours - the defeat of Gods Own and Three Kingdoms looked impressive at Kempton. He travels and jumps well and that should be put to good use now upped in trip, his sire has produced a good few horses that run their best at 20 - 21f so not worried about that.

2.15 - Hargam & All Yours EW - Penalty kick for Hargam surely, gets his ground and the top 3 from the Triumph were a mile clear and different class from the others. Price is declining rapidly and will likely go off 1/2 or less. All Yours was badly checked 3 out in the Fred Winter and lost a lot of momentum, he then got up to finish 5 lengths behind in 5th. He meets Bouvreuil and Starchitect on 4lbs better terms today and can easily see him being best of the rest.

2.50 - Silviniaco Conti - Its pretty clear now that he doesnt see out the extended trip well enough at Cheltenham and should be kept to the KG and Betfred Bowl each year. He won this last year in similar ground conditions and im amazed he isnt favourite given he also had a poor race in the gold cup that year also. It was only 2 runs ago he produced his best ever run when he pinged every fence and won the King George comfortably. He has a liken for flat tracks and if they want to hold him up, Vuvokar will set a nice gallop up front but i would guess they will try make all like the King George.

3.25 - Jezki - Has had the beating of Arctic Fire most of the season and given he is certainly going to stay the trip looks a much safer bet. Champ Hurdle was probably run in the worst circumstances for him with a moderate at best pace and unable to quicken up as easily as the front 3 did. Is likely to have a strong pace to aim at and can see him cruising alongside RoR at the last.

4.05 - Warne - Was fantastic in winning this race last year, thriving of the national course. This looks a lot more competitive but another round of jumping like he did and he should be thereabout. Has Sam in the saddle who has a great record over these fences.

4.40 - Ned Buntline - Looked to be getting to Next Sensation at Cheltenham to give McCoy a dream win but faded on the final run in to finish 4th. Runs off same mark today and given that the soft ground probably went against him on the final day(heavy rain) back on a good surface should bring out his best.

5.15 - The Tourad Man & Lac Fontana - The front 3 in the Pertemos meet again but The Tourad Man comes out best at the weights, 2 lbs better than UDC and 3 from CTC. King has managed to get Richard Johnson in the saddle and he has won on him before. Lac Fontana has a stamina question but is no doubt a different class to these being a grade 1 winner at this festival last year. He looked to be staying on in the Coral Cup and can see why Nicholls has upped him in trip with the very handy Sean Bowen taking 5lbs off.

I hope you do have a better Aintree than Cheltenham otherwise im screwed

 

[stick]

A couple at decent odds that catch my eye tomorrow.
NEVEROWNUP 40-1 Foxhunters is an admirably consistent beast and the good doctor has secured the services of a very good amateur to enhance his chances. Last years National winning trainer and his entries this week will have been well schooled for this unique test. Cracking price!
PEARLS LEGEND 16-1 4:40 is on the upgrade and this small yard have won this race in the past. Nico De Boinville does the steering and although one pound out of the handicap I don't think this one has finished improving.
I also think that the 3-1 for SILVINIACO CONTI is top value and Barney has convinced me to desert my old mate Regal Encore for CALL THE COPS.

Off to Spain in the morning and no idea if I will have internet but wish you all a great Aintree and Masters weekend.

 

[SaveTheHumans]

Clarcam 6/1 Aintree 1:40 - Ruby takes over from the suspended Bryan Cooper and the horse tackles 20 furlongs over fences for the first time, which he should appreciate. Allowed home in his own time at Cheltenham knowing the game was up a fair bit out, if that hasn't had an affect on him he should stamp his authority over this field. He was 2nd behind Guitar Pete in the juvenile hurdle here last year and I'm confident he can get his head in front a year on.

 

[King Shergar]

Not very original, but I think it'll be a big day for the favourites tomorrow. All 4 look very solid in the main races, so I'm happy to get involved at short odds.

1.40 Josses Hill
2.15 Hargam
2.50 Holywell
3.25 Arctic Fire

 

[boil1512]

140 Aintree
Vibrato Valtat

Sam sasid himself afterwards that if he had ridden his race to be 2nd he would have got it but wnated to win. That's good enough for me and i think this could win well.

215 Aintree
Hargam

I really believe that this would have won the triunmph if we hadnt had the rain, banker of the whole meet for me.

250 Aintree
Silviniaco Conte

The gold cup proved that Silviniaco cant stay 3m @ Cheltenham but this isnt Chelts.

325 Aintree
Jezski

Same applies here than with Vibrato, ridden to beat Faugheen and that was never gonna happen but I just think that Arctic Fire is one they can get at.

405 Aintree
Warne

Been aimed at this and he won his PTP easily and id rather back him and he lose than not and piss up!!!

440 aintree
arnaud

ran well for along way last year and is now 5 lb lower. worth chancing at 16/1

515 aintree
call the cops

if they are runnig him in this i feel they must think he is a good thing.

 

[woolcombe-folly007]

Not very original, but I think it'll be a big day for the favourites tomorrow. All 4 look very solid in the main races, so I'm happy to get involved at short odds.

1.40 Josses Hill
2.15 Hargam
2.50 Holywell
3.25 Arctic Fire

Suprised shergs!! I think Arctic Fire has had some very hard races recently and can defitnately be had seeing that is always seems to be the bridesmaid and Holywell aimed at the gold cup has shown no form part fron Tis season and Conti does well at flat tracks! But good luck ( not too much tho) :d

 

[SaveTheHumans]

Clarcam 6/1 Aintree 1:40 - Ruby takes over from the suspended Bryan Cooper and the horse tackles 20 furlongs over fences for the first time, which he should appreciate. Allowed home in his own time at Cheltenham knowing the game was up a fair bit out, if that hasn't had an affect on him he should stamp his authority over this field. He was 2nd behind Guitar Pete in the juvenile hurdle here last year and I'm confident he can get his head in front a year on.

The Fox hunters is always a good spectacle at Aintree and the Cheltenham winner On The Fringe will prove very tough to beat here once more, 7/2 is decent considering he didn't get out of 2nd gear to win around Cheltenham. For a horse that travels with such ease, he can pick this lot off one by one to score again.

 

[floridaspearl]

My selections for tomorrow
1.40 cash and go
2.15 starchitect
2.50 menorah
3.25 Rock on ruby
4.05 warne
4.40 pearls legend
5.15 tagliatelle
Good luck

 

[King Shergar]

Suprised shergs!! I think Arctic Fire has had some very hard races recently and can defitnately be had seeing that is always seems to be the bridesmaid and Holywell aimed at the gold cup has shown no form part fron Tis season and Conti does well at flat tracks! But good luck ( not too much tho) :d

Arctic Fire is a young horse, and at 6 years old is in the prime of his life. He can handle all the racing he has had. There has been a 30 day gap between the Champion Hurdle and the Aintree Hurdle which is more than enough to get over a 2 mile hurdle race that was run at a slow gallop. I don't think many of them had a tough race that day. Arctic Fire may have been the bridesmaid a lot in his career but he is a good ground horse, this is why he was beaten a lot during the winter, but he proved his ability on good ground by finishing ahead of HF and Jezki in the CH by quite some way. He was also finishing the strongest of any horse in the CH, he gained a hell of a lot on Faugheen in the last 100 yards after being outpaced when they initially went for home. So I can see him improving for a step up in trip. The fact they are only running Arctic Fire aswell is a tip in its own right. He's left the likes of Annie Power at home in her horse box, because he knows this fella will take care of business.

My reasoning behind backing Holywell is that he did the Aintree, Cheltenham double last year, with a much shorter gap between the meetings so he has proven he can run well at both meetings back to back. The ground was against him in the Gold Cup yet he still ran a very good race to finish 4th. On better ground tomorrow he will be seen to much better effect. His win at Aintree last year had the likes of Don Cossack, Many Clouds and O'Faolins Boy well beaten. Don Cossack was 2nd beaten 10 lengths, and I'm a big fan of him. Thought he was a little unfortunate not to win the Ryanair, a sloppy jump, and getting sandwiched in between 2 horses going to the 2nd last cost him his chance. He is a much better horse than Uxizandre as far as I'm concerned.

I'm not convinced by Silviniaco Conti for tomorrow, I felt he won a poor renewal of the bowl last year from a form perspective and that Holywells performance in the novice event was superior form to his. Agrocat was within a couple of lengths of him and he's a hound. Dynaste also under performed I feel. The bad form of last years race can be supported by the way SC was beaten by the likes of First Lieutenant and Menorah the year before.

I think SC is a good horse, but he doesn't run his best races at the Aintree meeting because it comes so close after Cheltenham. I think Holywell has proven more conclusively with his efforts last year that he can handle running strong races at both meetings. If Silviniaco Conti went to Aintree fresh like he did in 2012 winning by 13 lengths, it may be a different story. But I can't be backing him after Cheltenham

 

[morky]

Well 12 months has passed and it's Aintree Thursday. The thing i like about Thursday is its the best days racing out of the 3, it's not as busy as the other days so if and when you want a drink you can get one.

Good luck to all.

At the moment I'm going with - but there is plenty of time before the off to change my mind.
Vibrato valtat
Hargam
Hollywell
Arctic fire
Warne
parsnip Pete - only because my son always seems to be saying" didn't that win last time we were here dad"
Call the cops

If you feel you can persuade me to better I am always happy to listen. Edited after listening.

 

[TopClass]

Good bet on Ricky Fowler for the Masters @ 50s on the exchanges, with Schwartzel, Mahan, Grace, and Moore as the big price upsets.

Tricky Aintree as always in the nags. Fancy Jezki to be on the steel coming to the last but the long run in worries me a little bit.


Josses Hill should be better fo 2m 4f and should win if continuing his steps in the right direction jumping-wise.

Jezki 11/4
Josses Hill 6/4
Smad Place 14/1

Trixie.

 

[ROTO]

4.05 Aintree

Warne 6/1

Last years winner of this contest Warne looks to have been aimed at this contest all year and with jockey Sam Waley-Cohen excelling over the National fences I think he'll take a lot of beating and he looks an outstanding each way bet at 6/1. Brian Hamilton's 11 year old made all to win this contest convincingly last year and I'm hoping for a repeat performance this year. He warmed up for thiseasy P2P victory last month and I think this extended 2m5f journey is his ideal trip. Cheltenham Foxhunter winner On The Fringe clearly comes here in great heart with a very impressive win last month but given that this is his first try over the national fences and over a trip on the short side for him he may struggle to pin Warne back. With 4 places paid, I think Warne looks an outstanding each way proposition as I can't see him out of the frame but I think he'll take a lot of beating in this and he can win this for the 2nd year running.

4.40 Aintree

Parsnip Pete 14/1

Like my selection in the previous race Warne, Parsnip Pete will be looking to win this for the 2nd year running and I think he's got a cracking chance of doing so. Tom George's 9 year old was a very impressive winner of this contest 12 months ago off a mark of 134 and although he's 10lb higher this year around he did score again over this C+D impressively off a 3lb lower mark of 141 on his seasonal reappearance in October and I think he's handicapped to strike now rated 144. Since his most recent success, Parsnip Pete has ran 4 times (latest start over hurdles) on ground softer than ideal and I think the return to Aintree (2-2 here) and better ground will definitely see the best out of him. I expect Paddy Brennan to have him situated not far off the pace and I think he's primed for a huge run. Although a competitive field, I think the 14/1 on offer for last years winner is a huge price and I'm confident of a very big performance that can hopefully see Parsnip Pete score in this once again.

5.15 Aintree

Call The Cops 13/2

Nicky Henderson's lightly raced and improving 6 year old was a horse I backed at Cheltenham in the Pertemps and I see absolutely no reason why he can't win here too as I think his 7lb rise looks very lenient. Call The Cops has been a revelation since upped to 3 miles on good ground on his last 2 starts and with those conditions prevalent here again I think he'll take a lot of beating. Having bolted up at Doncaster off a mark of 133, Call The Cops came out to win at the Cheltenham Festival just 12 days later under a 5lb penalty and the manner of that success leads me to believe he's definitely still handicapped to win races off his new mark of 145. Connections also had him entered in a Grade 1 on Saturday which I think says a lot about how they rate him and I'd be stunned if he's new mark is beyond him. Given his strong travelling style, I think he'll be ideally suited to Aintree's flat track and I'm confident Andrew Tinkler can score on Call The Cops for the 3rd consecutive time.

 

[cityhull]

Holywell favourite over Conti is a massive insult, wrote off after Cheltenham last year he came back and won the bowl and today will be no different
Also on Hargem at evens but no price now
Call the cops is another confident selection, 7lb isn't beyond this horse and I can see him going in again
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