Just been going through this race, and without wanting to be to negative this is a terrible renewal. If Annie Power was to run I'd lump on at 4/1, as she would have no problems beating this load of donkeys. I'm struggling to understand why she is running in the mares hurdle when this race looks very easy for her. Of the others Zarkandar has the best form in the book, and I've never been a big fan of him, but he may have to get the nod here. His 4th in last seasons renewal and his runs in France are probably about the best form on offer. At Fishers Cross was 3rd last year, but his recent runs have been uninspiring. I'm not sure why Saphir Du Rheu is favourite, other than the fact he is young and improving, but he's still going to have to step up massively on his Cleeve run to figure in this. Getting weight off of Reve De Sivola and only beating him a neck is average form in my book. You may aswell back Reve De Sivola at 20/1 if your going to back SDR based on what he's shown so far. Rock on Ruby was a class act in his day, but he's getting on abit, and this switch to 3 miles seems like more of an act of desperation than anything else. Without Annie Power it isn't a race I'd be massively confident about, but il go with Zarkandar as the likeliest winner. Would have to see what his odds are on the day before I have a bet though.
Saphir De Rheu is favourite as he has taken the same steps as Big Bucks, is trained by the same trainer and owned by the same owner nothing more nothing less. Big Bucks was one of a kind, history will not repeat itself and SDR will not win the World Hurdle. As you say Shergs it really is an awful awful race, we have been spoilt in the past with Baracouda, Inglis Drever & Big Bucks but this is really more of what the world hurdle is all about. Failed chasers and those not quick enough for a Champion Hurdle. Rock on Ruby is all heart so if I was forced to place a wager now it would go there but I wouldn't be rushing for a bet
I wouldn't have thought backers would be stupid enough to latch onto the Big Bucks comparisons, but I think you could be right. Would be a 10-12/1 chance if SDR had different connections
Just been doing my Festival write up Shergs and you don't even mention the one I am putting up for this LOL
Is it Lieutenant Colonel Stick, I dismissed him as his runs ahead of Jetson didn't look that great to me. I think it's easy to overrate that form based on Jetson beating an ageing Quevega, but his other form hasn't been that strong
Im quite surprised you guys are being so harsh to SDR. He was rated 165 over hurdles and last time out was his first run over 3 miles which he showed he does stay very well. Nicholls had said since that he expects the horse to come on a great deal from that run as he left plenty to work on and given the natural improvement you would expect, i dont see why he cant reach rating of around 168-170. The only horses who could match that would be if Rock on Ruby could show same class over 3miles which i have doubts about, More of That when winning this last year but is now out for the season and Anne Power receiving the Mares allowance(who also doesnt run).
I've never trusted Nichols opinions as a trainer, I find him very biased. However I can see your point re the experience, but he was a hurdler before his failed chasing career. It's hardly like it was his debut over the obstacles
Will be interested to see your write up on him Stick. Do you not think a shorter trip suits him better though. Jetson got a lot closer to him over 3 miles than he did over 2m4. His 6th place in last years Neptune is also something that would worry me in regards to the course.
Very surprised by your choice I must say lol Was thinking you'd a been heading the direction I'm tentatively thinking with my selection, especially as I know you like the colours!
This is very open and may not take that much winning. Looking away from the favourites, I quite like the profile of Nicky Henderson's Blue Fashion. On his two runs since coming from France, he was beaten 2 lengths last season by More of That - giving away 6lbs - and then ran a decent second to Faugheen over the same trip at Ascot. By Scorpion out of A Law Society mare, the trip should present no problem. Certainly an interesting contender who wouldn't need much improvement to figure in the finish. Certainly worth an each way dabble at best priced 18/1. Pont Alexandre could be a dark horse, though.
Pont Alexandre Tam????? I heard he is still getting over the mauling THE NEW ONE gave him two years ago....#irishbanker LOL
I'd got to the point with the World Hurdle that if Rock On Ruby stays, he wins. It's a big IF of course. I see Briar Hill is still in there. Wasn't this the horse where Patrick Mullins said in a preview evening for last year's festival "Whichever race he goes to he will win - Supreme, Neptune or Albert Bartlett" ?? Toppy's old fav Monksland still in there - short-headed by Dedigout last time but is Weld getting him ripe for this?
A good decision, he has more chance of winning the Aintree hurdle if he goes their fresh. He was never going to win this race over 3 miles. I don't really buy the if he stayed he'd of won theory, as whilst he probably has the best kick of all these plodders. There is no way his kick would have been as effective over 3 miles, wether he stayed the trip or not. Powering up that hill after 3 miles is more about pure stamina than anything else. Speed doesn't come into it
I am a great fan of Zarkandar, but these damn flat spots he goes through in his races, especially at Cheltenham, really bothers me. Most of the time the leeway he has to make up, because of this failing, is just too much for him? He's a grand racehorse though.
You wouldn't think a triumph hurdle winner, and a full brother to an Arc winner would hit flat spots over 3 miles
